Russia’s special military operation was meant to be limited in scope with modest goals assigned to it.
Despite talk in western media of Russia wishing to occupy the entirety of Ukraine the plainly spoken outcome at the outset was to liberate the populations of the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine from the constant threat and fact of shelling from the Ukrainian forces surrounding the two oblasts of Donetsk and Lugansk. Fourteen thousand had died over the previous eight years and a major offensive by the Kiev regime was in the offing sometime in February.
The strategy in the early days of Russia’s operation appears to have been to shake the confidence of the regime’s leadership in Kiev and bring a quick end to it, sparing as many lives as possible. This strategy however tragically did not work and the regime bolstered by the false hopes given it by the grandiose and ultimately utterly fanciful scheme by the western powers to arm Kiev’s army with a view to weakening Russia.
Before long Moscow saw that the advance upon Kiev which (in my view) was to scare the regime into compromising and acceding to Moscow’s demands bringing the campaign to a speedy end, was a failure and withdrew all its troops, back to the Donbass region.
Since the withdrawal of all Russian forces to the Donbass there has been an incremental advance by them with villages, towns and cities being taken after well dug-in Ukrainian troops in heavily defended lines were made to surrender, flee or were otherwise eliminated from the battle front, either wounded or killed.
After four months of hard slog Russia stands at the threshold of the final battles to take the final major cities occupied in the Donbass by the Ukrainians. In three to four weeks at most the entire Donbass cannot help but be in Russian hands. But what happens then?
I have come to understand that the Kiev regime will not allow the war to end there. At least the U.S. and UK leaderships will not allow this and it is clear they will continue to arm whatever is left of the Ukrainian army with an almost unlimited supply of high-tech weaponry, logistics and targeting information. It is clear to me that even when Russia has attained her goal of securing the safety of the people of the Donbass by ejecting or eliminating Ukrainian troops this will not be the end of the matter.
I fully expect the existing regime in Kiev to do everything possible including constant devastatingly accurate attacks on an increasing number of targets within the Donbass.
I have come to the opinion that Russia cannot and must not put up with such a situation and that there is only one permanent solution that would enable a full and lasting peace in the Donbass to be guaranteed.
That solution is to do everything necessary to remove the present Kiev regime from power and replace it with an interim government preparatory to elections for both president and elected representatives leading to the formation of a truly representative government free of pernicious western influence.
This would not be as difficult as it may be thought. With the decimation of the most well trained Ukrainian troops and a much reduced Ukrainian army in general and with the total removal of the serried lines of immensely militarized defensive positions that will arrive in the next few weeks there will be little to stop a speedy Russian advance.
I see no other way to obviate the carnage and destruction that what’s left of Ukraine’s extremist power structure will engage in following Russia’s successful operation. To leave such a nest of hatred, continually bolstered by a desperate USA, UK and EU unwilling to accept defeat and determined to hit Russia and the civilian population of the Donbass with everything they’ve got, would create an intolerable situation.
With the worst of the fighting over, with only a rump Ukraine with its best trained, battle-hardened troops out of the picture, with every transport link rendered useless, with all oil and ammunition dumps destroyed and very little now standing in the way of a rapid Russian advance, I see the removal of the current Kiev regime as extremely doable and in fact an absolute necessity.