YouGov MRP poll in “red wall” seats finds CON to LAB swing of 4.5% – politicalbetting.com


But LAB still well down on GE2017

We have now got the first YouGov MRP polling of this parliament which focuses on the so called “Red Wall” seats which were the foundation of BoJo’s big victory at GE2019. This is from the YouGov report:

YouGov data shows the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck in the so called ‘Red Wall’ of pivotal Northern, Midlands, and North Wales constituencies. A multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of constituency vote intention shows that the Conservatives could be set to lose up to 32 Red Wall seats to Labour, if an election were held tomorrow..According to our MRP model, estimated using almost 10,000 respondents, the Conservatives have now dropped to 41% in Red Wall vote intention. That’s seven points down on 2019, and two points below their 2017 showing under Theresa May.

The MRP approach has become increasingly useful and helps get to the nitty gritty of seat totals. What is interesting about this latest polling is that CON to LAB swing is almost in line with the latest Opinium national poll that came out over the weekend.

As I have stated here before my estimate is that the Tories will retain their effective majority if they can keep losses down to 47 – so 32 LAB gains would not change the government. What could be crucial is whether the Tories can hang on to their six Scottish seats and how effective the LDs are in their “Blue Wall” strategy typified by what happened in Chesham and Amersham. These are seats which voted Remain where the LDs are in second place with a significantly higher proportion of graduates in their electorates.

Mike Smithson



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