In spite of all the Labour poll leads over the past nine months or so the betting markets have consistently made the Tories the favourites to win most seats at the next general election.
The betting chart above shows how perceptions have changed and how now for the very first time LAB is rated as having a better chance than the Tories of winning most seats.
It should be noted here that the Tories with the new boundaries will find it a lot easier to get more seats for their votes than LAB. This is because the national vote share for Starmer’s party includes many seats where the party has very big majorities whilst Tory vote is spread more evenly.
So it is possible that with a double-digit national vote lead Labour might not even get a majority or even be top party in terms of seats.
I find it very hard to see how Labour can get a majority and the best they can hope for is for the Tories to fail to achieve one. In such a context Starmer is more likely to end up as PM than Truss.