Why I’m betting on a 2022 general election – politicalbetting.com

Truss will never have a better opportunity

Looking back to the last time a PM was replaced between elections, 2007, I often wonder whether the course of British political history would have been different if Gordon Brown had called an immediate general election after taking over Tony Blair in the June of that year.

The arrival of the new Labour leader at Number 10 saw the party to see a remarkable turnaround in the polls which was broadly sustained until late October after it became clear that Brown wasn’t going to risk it. Then there was polling collapse and the party never really recovered before the 2010 general election.

The point is that there is never a better time for a new mid-term prime minister to be popular with the electorate than when they take over. My guess, and I am betting on it, is that we will see a Tory recovery in the polls in September when after Liz Truss arrives at Number 10. This is what has happened in the past with new leaders and what I think will happen with with the Tories now.

A second big reason why Truss should follow this course is because it would give democratic legitimacy to her position and policy programme. Let us remember that she wasn’t even the first choice of MPs and indeed in the first round of parliamentary party voting she was in the third place.

Is Truss going to take such a gamble? My guess is that she might which is why I’m have made an 18/1 bet there will be a general election this year. That is value.

Mike Smithson

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