What to look for when Mark Carney unveils his new cabinet – iPolitics

Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to visit Rideau Hall on Tuesday to unveil what will be the second cabinet of his nearly three-month-long stint as the Canada’s leader.

Carney also participated in a swearing-in ceremony alongside his front bench after winning the Liberal Party’s leadership in March. However, those ministers never formally took their seats, as Parliament was prorogued when Carney first came to power, and remained shuttered when he triggered a snap election less than three weeks later.

Now, the dust has settled, Carney’s Liberals were re-elected with a minority government, and the prime minister will soon return to Governor General Mary Simon’s residence to introduce a new cabinet that, unlike the previous iteration, should remain in place for the foreseeable future.

READ MORE: Carney’s new cabinet to be sworn in on Tuesday

Carney has provided some clues as to what his newfangled cabinet will look like. He’s committed to maintaining the policy of gender parity introduced by Justin Trudeau, while also emphasizing the need to keep a leaner cabinet table compared to that of his predecessor.

Most pundits expect the total number of ministers to increase from the 23 included in his first cabinet, but it’s still likely to feature fewer than the 37 MPs that comprised Trudeau’s final front bench.

Obviously, it remains to be seen who lands where and, with a crop of freshly-elected rookies, whether any familiar faces will be dropped altogether.

iPolitics is here to walk you through the pressing lingering questions ahead of Carney’s visit to Rideau Hall next week:

Does Champagne stay in finance?

The finance minister is often considered the second-most powerful person in the federal government and, currently, longtime Trudeau cabinet minister François-Philippe Champagne holds the posting, though he’s relatively new to the file.

Champagne had previously spent four years as industry minister before Carney gave him the finance portfolio in March. Should Carney decide to shuffle Champagne out of finance, he would become the shortest-serving finance minister in Canadian history, excluding those who only held the role in an ‘acting’ capacity.

During his time as industry minister, Champagne built a reputation as a hard-working networker with an ability to forge strong relationships with businesses across the globe. He’s affectionately known in political circles as ‘Frankie bubbles’ and ‘the Energizer bunny’ because of sunny disposition and seemingly endless energy.

However, some Liberal insiders question whether Champagne is best-suited to stay as finance minister.

One Liberal strategist, who asked not to be named to speak freely on the subject, suggested there may be a potential opening at finance, despite Champagne’s strong reputation within Liberal circles.

“I think we are definitely going to see some surprise,” they said. “There’s going to be some [high-profile] people out of cabinet or not staying in roles.”

“To be blunt, Champagne was an excellent industry minister because he’s good at running around and making friends with everybody, But I don’t see how that translates into being an excellent finance minister.”

Multiple Liberal sources told iPolitics that there’s a chance Carney’s next finance minister is a brand new MP. Namely, Tim Hodgson, who was elected in Markham-Thornhill, and Carlos Letião, the new representative for Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, have been listed as viable options.

Hodgson, in particular, has been the subject of various rumours in the Ottawa political bubble because of his pre-existing relationship with Carney, as the two worked together at Goldman Sachs. Hodgson also worked at the Bank of Canada and, more recently, served as chair of Hydro One, Ontario’s electric utility.

“I’ve heard Hodgson is going to have a significant role because Carney is close to him and really pulled him in,” said one strategist. “But we’ve seen this before, when you put a finance guy who’s never done politics into the finance minister’s role.”

“It didn’t go well.”

The source referenced Bill Morneau, a Trudeau-era finance minister, whose transition from Bay Street to Parliament Hill ended with a scandal-based resignation.

Meanwhile, Letião spent more than four years as Quebec’s finance minister under Philippe Couillard’s Liberal provincial government.

What do you do with Freeland?

There’s also an open question regarding what Carney will decide to do with perhaps the most well-known Liberal MP — Chrystia Freeland.

As Trudeau’s longterm finance minister and deputy prime minister, Freeland has a high profile across the country. It was her bombshell resignation last December that most people attribute with instigating the caucus revolt that culminated in Trudeau’s resignation. Freeland also placed second to Carney, albeit by a wide margin, in the Liberal leadership.

Some were surprised when Freeland was named to Carney’s initial cabinet as transport minister. Though widely considered a demotion from her long-held finance portfolio, there was a question as to whether Freeland, who is often associated with Trudeau, was still a political asset or had become a liability.

From an optics standpoint, there’s forces working both for and against Freeland, in terms of a cabinet posting. She is a strong, high-profile female MP and may be difficult to exclude from cabinet, should Carney uphold gender parity. However, she also represents a Toronto riding, where several other potential ministers, including Hodgson, reside. In a shrunk-down cabinet, it may become difficult to balance the strength of individual MPs and geographical representation.

“People seem to think Freeland stays,” said one Liberal source.

There’s also the question of Freeland’s personal relationship with Carney, who is the godfather to one of her children.

“The fact Carney wants to keep gender balance is great, but he has way fewer options to choose from,” said another Liberal insider. “It’s really hard for him to dump [Freeland], like there’s some humiliation in that.”

Does every province get a spot?

Speaking of geographical representation, it remains to be seen whether every province will be represented at the cabinet table. And, unlike previous years, Carney has the ability to include each of Canada’s 13 provinces, as at least one Liberal was elected in every jurisdiction.

It should also be noted that strengthening national unity appears to be a goal for Carney’s government, especially in the face of burgeoning separatist sentiments in Western Canada.

But, should Carney opt to represent every province, it doesn’t leave him with an abundance of options. It would be good news for Buckley Belanger, the lone Liberal in Saskatchewan, who won the northern riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River.

Redesigned riding boundaries helped the longtime New Democrat MLA become the first Liberal to win a seat in Saskatchewan since Ralph Goodale in 2015. Does that guarantee Belanger a seat at the cabinet table? We’ll find out on Tuesday.

As one Liberal told iPolitics, it’s probably that Carney will give him the ministerial responsibility for Prairies Economic Development Canada or another lower-profile portfolio.

Meanwhile, only two Liberals won seats in Alberta, which means one of Corey Hogan from Calgary Confederation or Eleanor Olszewski from Edmonton Centre is likely to make the upcoming trip to Rideau Hall.

Hogan spent time in Alberta’s civil service during Rachel Notley’s tenure as premier, while Olszewski, a lawyer, previously served on the Liberal Party’s national board.

The only other province left unrepresented in Carney’s initial cabinet was P.E.I., after Lawrence MacAulay announced he wouldn’t re-offer in this year’s federal election. As the smallest province, it’s often not considered a necessity for an islander to be included in cabinet, though Carney will have options, as his party swept P.E.I.

That could mean that one of the province’s incumbent MP, Sean Casey, Heath MacDonald, and Bobby Morrissey, get the call. Kent MacDonald is the other P.E.I. MP, as he succeeded MacAulay as the representative for the riding of Cardigan.

Finally, does anyone from the North get in? There hasn’t been a minister from the territories since Nunavut’s Hunter Tootoo resigned as fisheries minister in 2016.

There won’t be another minister from Nunavut, as the NDP’s Lori Idlout won re-election last week, though Brendan Hanley held his Yukon seat for the Liberals, while Rebecca Alty was also elected in the Northwest Territories.

What else should I look for?

Alright, time to empty the notebook.

Obviously, we won’t know for certain what the new cabinet will look like until Tuesday morning, but here’s some MPs that Liberal insiders are keeping their eye on:

Dominic LeBlanc:

The New Brunswick MP, who has seemingly been minister of everything at one point in time, is likely to stay in a high-profile role, according to one Liberal strategist.

“They’ll keep LeBlanc in some kind of intergovernmental role,” they said. “He’s built some really good relationships, especially in the U.S.”

LeBlanc most recently served as trade minister in Carney’s government.

Nate Erskine-Smith:

A late addition to Trudeau’s final cabinet, Erskine-Smith stayed in the housing file during the first weeks of the Carney administration. Erskine-Smith, who was previously considered a ‘maverick’ in the Liberal Party, is often viewed as an effective communicator in one of the government’s most pressing files, though some believe his time in the post may be short-lived.

“He has a very mixed reviews from the people who are around the centre,” said one Liberal, adding that Erskine-Smith’s reputation as a more ‘left-wing’ Liberal may factor into Carney’s decision. “Having him as housing minister doesn’t send a great signal to developers and the business side.”

“He’s not seen as someone who will work well with them or tried to reach out to them in his short tenure. He’s very focused on the affordable, subsidized side of housing, which needs to happen, but we can’t actually get to 500,000 starts if we aren’t going to bring the industry along with us.”

Another Liberal source said Erskine-Smith’s team is “hopeful” that he will stay in housing.

Evan Solomon:

The former broadcaster, who was considered a star candidate when he jumped into federal politics earlier this year, is thought to have a personal relationship with Carney, but there’s debate as to whether that will translate into a cabinet posting.

He’s another Toronto MP, which, again, makes things more difficult with Carney’s commitment to a smaller front bench, but some insiders believe Solomon could be effective in a file that requires a strong communicator.

Trudeau had a tendency to promote former broadcasters, like Seamus O’Regan and Marci Ien, will Carney follow suit?

Steven Guilbeault:

The longtime environmental activist, who is often described as a political ‘lightning rod’ due to his ardent defence of the consumer carbon price, was shuffled out of the environment file in Carney’s initial cabinet, as he landed in a new portfolio devoted to Canadian culture and identity.

Guilbeault also received what one Liberal called an “inside baseball promotion,” as he was named Carney’s Quebec lieutenant, a historically influential role representing a province that was critical to the Liberals’ election victory last week.

But one strategist told iPolitics that people, especially those who live Western Canada or work in the resource sector, will “lose their [minds]” if Guilbeault is given a file related to the environment.

Ben Carr:

In Trudeau’s final cabinet, the veteran parliamentarian Terry Duguid finally became a minister, taking over the sport portfolio from Carla Qualtrough, who was not seeking re-election. Duguid stayed in cabinet under Carney, who made the Manitoban his environment minister.

Duguid was considered by some Ottawa insiders as the requisite minister from Manitoba, as former northern affairs minister Dan Vandal also decided to not to re-offer this year. However, after a strong night in Manitoba, there are more options to represent the province, including new MPs Doug Eyolfson, Ginette Lavack and Rebecca Chartrand.

Kevin Lamoureux was also re-elected for the fifth-consecutive time in Winnipeg North, though one source told iPolitics about rumours surrounding Carr, who held his Winnipeg South Centre riding.

Carr, whose late father Jim was a Trudeau-era minister, is said to be widely liked within the Liberal caucus and considered to be a strong performer during his short time in the House of Commons.