A little under a year ago, I wrote about discourse in the industry that the future of Hollywood’s fortunes in China would become clearer once two of the most anticipated studio titles of late 2025 release in the world’s second biggest box office market. Now, here we are on the precipice of Walt Disney Animation’s Zootopia 2 debuting on Wednesday, three weeks before 20th Century/Disney’s Avatar: Fire and Ash hits Chinese cinemas.
Both Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash’s performances in the PRC will be keenly watched by the industry and help determine whether China, which has turned increasingly inward in recent times, has completely switched off of Hollywood or if it can still be relied upon when properties for which it has shown a predilection are offered on local screens.
At present, Zootopia 2 is tracking off the charts. We have to wait a bit longer for the tea leaves on Fire and Ash.
Why are both movies potential barometers for the future? Because Hollywood has essentially written off China as a dependable market, compared to the heyday of 2012-2019. So, if either comes in lower than hoped, we’re told it will mean a reevaluation and redrawing of a playbook whose pages have already become dogeared.
China’s box office is currently running about 16% ahead of last year, but 9% below 2023, according to Gower Street Analytics; the difference is fueled by the blockbuster success of local title Ne Zha 2, which grossed over $2 billion locally in early 2025. There is a staggering 97% difference between NZ2’s box office and the No. 2 Chinese movie of the year, Detective Chinatown 3.
The biggest Hollywood title to date in China in 2025 is Universal/Amblin’s Jurassic World Rebirth at $79M, and that’s part of a franchise that has previously seen serious triple-digit grosses in that market. It’s also sort of a “new normal” as some folks cite, which is a “sad thing” in a market that was once so promising — even despite the 25% split.
Now, we’ve got two movies that appear to be no-brainers given the success of their predecessors, so let’s take a look at what’s in the balance.
As one international executive opined, “It’s super important for Hollywood movies to figure out where we are, and how much are Hollywood movies really worth in the Chinese marketplace. It’s also incredibly important to the Chinese industry. Look at the box office at the moment … the industry needs it. They need Hollywood.”
Another said, “You can’t get two properties that are more conducive to the Chinese marketplace. So anything half or less is a bit of a disaster.”
A Bit Of History
The original Zootopia was a slow-burn surprise hit in China, opening to RMB 155.1 million ($21.8 million at today’s rates) and multiplying like rabbits to RMB 1.53B ($215.2M). In a feat rarely seen in the market, the movie’s second weekend far outstripped its first as the story of a country bunny who goes to the big city deeply resonated with local audiences.
Regarding Avatar: Fire and Ash, it’s important to recall that James Cameron is beloved in China where the first Avatar did over $200M in 2010 — before the market opened up and screens grew at a breakneck pace. Across Avatar’s three local releases its gross rises to $262M. Avatar: The Way of Water then finaled at $247M (again, at historical rates) after being released amid China ceasing its zero-Covid policy in 2022 and concerns from the public about venturing out.
We will have more to say about Avatar: Fire and Ash as we get closer to release, but for the moment, let’s recall that The Way of Water opened to $56M in China, with the multiple along the lines of how these movies go — playing out incredibly well.
Cameron will travel to Shanghai for a Fire and Ash premiere at the Hainan International Film Festival on December 18. There’s also that old adage: Never bet against James Cameron.
The ultimate start for both movies anywhere in the $125M-$150M range — and Z2 looks primed for it — would be considered a win.
‘Zootopia 2’ Up First
There’s every belief that the Zootopia sequel performs, with want-to-see now at 2.3M at last count per Maoyan two days ahead of release — higher than where Avengers: Endgame was in 2019 (that film going on to gross RMB 1.39 billion/$195.5M on its opening weekend and RMB 4.25B/$598M total, all at today’s rates).
Z2’s bunny cop protagonist Judy (Ginnifer Goodwin) and her foe-turned-friend fox Nick (Jason Bateman) are in hopping good shape. Presales currently sit at about RMB 230M ($32.4M) through the five-day opening first weekend. It’s also worth noting that in the Chinese Zodiac, this is the Year of the Snake and the case our two heroes must crack this time around involves reptile redemption.
On Tuesday this week, Disney held a Zootopia 2 celebration at the Shanghai Disney Resort. The Z2 attraction has remained popular in the years since the first movie. There has also been a big activation in Shanghai along The Bund and the promotional partners on the film include some of China’s biggest companies.
A word of caution to extend here is that Z2 is opening into an exam period, whereas the first movie debuted in March 2016. Cinema-going audiences are “aging up” in China, but still things are looking good.
So, What Happens Next?
Executives we’ve spoken with assert that if Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash don’t work in China, it’s bad not only for Hollywood in China, but for China overall and the global industry at large.
USC professor and China expert Stanley Rosen tells Deadline, “I can imagine that the industry is watching the fate of these two films very closely since — apart from another Avengers or Fast and Furious sequel — these franchises have done better than almost any other imports in China. The relevant players are also doing their best with marketing.”
Rosen continues, “The problem is that no Hollywood film has made it to $100 million this year … Therefore, the question becomes what would be considered a success … How much will the Chinese film authorities promote these films in comparison to the domestic competition?
“Some may feel that they should be helpful because having a film market with 90% of the box office made up of domestic films does not suggest that China is a part of the international cinema universe, but is a separate entity, something that is not considered beneficial to China, which always promotes globalization, contrasting it to Trump’s ‘American First’ policies. If any films could go beyond expectations, these two would qualify, assuming word of mouth and Douban and Maoyan ratings are strong.”
If we end up upside down, what happens? “We have to reevaluate how much money and time and effort we’re spending on the Chinese marketplace,” an international exec tells me.
Talent has essentially ceased going to China for promotion, but there is still spend in the millions on marketing. Well increased from 10 years ago, we understand the average marketing campaign is about $5M+, but when studios are earning 25 cents on the dollar, that’s a lot of money.
Says a source, “We’ve just got to reevaluate how much money we spend. I don’t think we’re not going to spend any money, but we’ve got to take a serious look at that if that’s the cap that the market can do. These two movies will give us a good sense of what the cap is. Then you’ve just got to adjust your spend accordingly.”
New Year: The Marvel & More Question
Looking ahead, there are a handful of movies teed up for 2026 that would lead us to revisit these same questions again. They include Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey in July (via Universal), followed by Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday in December.
In that group we’ve got a revered filmmaker (Nolan), an adored character (Spidey, even though 2021’s No Way Home did not release in China) and the fifth Avengers movie in the MCU — the first to convene most of the major heroes of Endgame, which is the highest-grossing Hollywood movie ever in the market.
Marvel famously went through a sort of unofficial ban in China that began in 2019 and went on to be a three-and-a-half year period during which movies featuring Marvel characters did not release there. Since the blackout lifted in 2023, Marvel movies have struggled in China (save, arguably, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).
Is there too much ill will towards Marvel in the intervening years to see Doomsday do a significant number? That’s a long way off, but in the intervening time there are some other films, as noted above, that should be attractive to Chinese audiences, and that will continue to provide a better sense of which way the wind is blowing.
Notes one veteran, “We have to continue to challenge the market, challenge the audiences, and engage them in different ways … The thing with the China audience is what they really want is to be challenged in a way, and they need to feel emotion, but they also need to feel pacing and quality.”
Maybe it also goes this way after the Z2 weekend: Does ‘Zootopia 2’s China Start Serve As Kindling For ‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ And Hollywood’s Future Fortunes In The Fickle Market?
deadline.com (Article Sourced Website)
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