Weekly Bulletin 23/08/25

Latest poll shows TUV as the third most popular party in NI, moving Alliance Party to fourth
The latest LucidTalk poll, published on Friday (15 August), showed that the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) has overtaken both the Alliance Party and the UUP to become Northern Ireland’s third most popular party. Support for the TUV now stands at 13%, up 1 percentage point since the last LucidTalk poll in May 2025. Sinn Féin remained the most popular party on 26% (no change), with the DUP in second on 17% (down one). Alliance are now fourth on 12% (down one), UUP fifth on 11% (down one), and SDLP sixth, also on 11% (no change). Responding to the party’s increase in popularity, TUV leader Jim Allister MP said the poll is “the result of a clear and consistent message: strength, not weakness; a demand for full UK citizenship and no sea border”. SDLP leader Claire Hanna remains the most popular political leader voters were asked about (48%), with First Minister Michelle O’Neill second (44%) and deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly third (41%). The Executive’s approval rating was 35% with voters, down three points from November. The Executive scored most highly by nationalists (39%) and least by unionists (33%) and Alliance/Green voters (32%). The poll also surveyed support for a commission to regulate and manage bonfires and displays of flags in Northern Ireland. Overall 58% of participants supported such a commission, with the most support coming from national/republicans (90%), constitutionally neutral second (89%), undetermined/unidentified third (47%) and unionist fourth (18%).
What next: Following a bill which is currently before the Dáil and the Stormont Assembly backing a Sinn Féin motion on extending the voting franchise to Irish citizens in NI, the poll asked if participants think Irish citizens in Northern Ireland should have the right to vote in Irish Presidential elections. 55% of respondents supported extending the vote to Irish citizens in NI, with 98% of Sinn Féin supporters, 70% of Alliance voters and 13% of DUP voters supporting the statement.

Calls for urgent cross-party action to save Lough Neagh
Chairman of the Lough Neagh Partnership, Gary McErlain, has called for urgent cross-party action to save Lough Neagh, warning that blue-green algae blooms on the Lough are “the worst he has seen in 40 years”. Recent footage shows eels and small fish trapped on top of the blooms, unable to resurface into the water. According to the Belfast Telegraph, the Lough is affected by poor wastewater treatment and septic tank mismanagement, but the “biggest factor is farming and agri-farm industry”. Ulster Farmers’ Union Deputy President, John McLenaghan, said that this is not just a challenge for farmers and that “other external factors” are contributing to the situation in Lough Neagh. A spokesperson for the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs described the images as “graphic”, adding that Minister Muir is “determined to turn the tide on water quality by delivering the actions set out in the Lough Neagh Report in partnership with others”. Speaking to BBC NI, Minister Muir said four key decisions are required to address the problem, namely; strengthening environmental governance, strengthening sewage regulation, better management of slurry and fertilisers on farms; and support in a climate action plan. He added that to implement these he requires the Executive to “back” him and has urged parties to “rethink their positions”. Leader of the Opposition, Mattew O’Toole MLA, called Lough Neagh “an ecological catastrophe that should shame us” and said that the “leading parties in the Executive have joined in blocking the key action needed to rescue the lough”.
What next: The Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs said 14 out of 37 actions of the Lough Neagh Action Plan have been completed, while another 22 are being progressed. Campaign group ‘Save Lough Neagh’ have organised a ‘Rally for the Lough’ which will be held in Antrim on Monday (25 August).

“Unnecessary deadlock” on Executive Investment Strategy
Chair of the Executive Office scrutiny committee Paula Bradshaw has criticised the three-year delay in finalising Stormont’s investment strategy, according to the Belfast Telegraph. The strategy outlines a framework for infrastructure investment up to 2050, covering hospitals, roads, and wastewater treatment, and its main priorities include decarbonising the economy, maximising benefits from technology and strengthening essential services. In the draft strategy, then First Minister Paul Givan and deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said investments would improve quality of life, support sustainable economic development, and protect the environment. The draft strategy went out for consultation in January 2022, but the finalised document has not yet been approved by the Executive. In November 2024, deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly told the Assembly that the draft Investment Strategy was being considered and it was expected that it would be brought to the Executive “in parallel with the final Programme for Government”. The final Programme for Government was agreed by the Executive on 27 February 2025. Ms Bradshaw said it was another example of an issue with “significant public interest which is still subject to unnecessary deadlock” and that it was “further proof that the institutions cannot function without being reformed”.
What next: When asked for an update on the investment strategy, the Executive Office said: “The investment strategy is currently being considered, and it is expected to be brought to the Executive for approval in the near future.”

Ciara Ferguson MLA (Sinn Féin, Foyle): “Celebrating the incredible @Actn4ChildrenNI 25 Years at Ebrington. The dedication and support by the team makes such a real and positive difference to so many children, young people and families. Huge Congratulations to you all and very best wishes for the next 25”.

Paul Frew MLA (DUP, North Antrim): “The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members.” -Mahatma Ghandi. Society has lost trust in our healthcare not least because of the actions of the Health Department and the countless cover ups by the trusts. The Adult Protection Bill” [see video here].

Alliance Party: “The Maze Long Kesh site remains a huge economic and social opportunity for NI, but the DUP and Sinn Féin continue to block development. This deadlock is disappointing the whole community. It’s time the First Ministers agreed on a plan to unlock its potential,” says @dhoneyford2”.

SDLP: “SDLP Leader Claire Hanna went out on Lough Neagh at the weekend and what she saw was horrifying. This is a crisis we cannot ignore. Lough Neagh must be saved” [see video here].

Jon Burrows MLA (UUP, North Antrim): “I had an excellent visit to Women’s Aid in Ballymena today and a very useful conversation with Gillian Creevy CEO. I’ll be a strong ally of Women’s Aid. It is important to know that Women’s Aid do not only provide refuge in crisis, but are available for early advice & support”.

TUV: “Housing situation made worse by immigration #TUV #TimothyGaston” [see video here].

Department for Infrastructure: “Infrastructure Minister @LizKimminsSF has met with Turley Economics, @NIChamber, Construction Employers Federation & NI Federation of Housing Associations to discuss the findings of their joint summary position paper: Confronting NI’s Wastewater Crisis”.

Housing publications show average house price as £185,108 and 4,097 presenting as homeless
On Thursday (21 August), the Northern Ireland Housing Bulletin for Q2 2025 was published. Headlines from the bulletin were: 4,097 households presented as homeless to the Northern Ireland Housing Executive, with the highest proportion of homeless presenters being single males (33.4%) and families (28.6%); as of 30 June 2025, there were 49,128 applicants on the NI Housing Executive waiting list; and the Affordable Warmth Scheme made improvements to 604 homes in Q2 2025. On Wednesday (20 August) the NI House Price Index was published. It showed that the average price for a house in Northern Ireland is £185,108 and ranges from £164,339 in Mid and East Antrim to £219,097 in Lisburn and Castlereagh. The House Price Index is now 13.9% higher than Q1 2023. It also showed that 4,495 residential properties were sold during Q2 2025. The statistics for new dwellings completions and starts were also published on Wednesday. A key point from this publication was that a total of 2,248 new dwellings were started in Q2 2025, 2,075 of which were private dwellings and 173 were social housing developments. Also, it confirmed that 1,475 new dwellings were completed in Q2, 208 were social housing developments which represented an increase from Q2 2024.

Figures on Young People Not in Education, Employment or Training published
On Friday (22 August), statistics on young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) were published by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency. These figures showed there were an estimated 25,000 young people aged 16 to 24 years in Northern Ireland who were not in education, employment or training in April to June 2025 (equivalent to 12.4% of those aged 16 to 24 in NI), which represents a 3 point increase from Q1 2025. The NEET rate among males aged 16 to 24 was 11.4% and among females was 13.4% in Q2 2025. In Q2 2025 there were an estimated 15,000 young people aged 16 to 24 years who were not in education, employment or training and who were not looking for work and/or not available to start work (economically inactive). The remainder of those who were not in education, employment or training were looking for work in the previous four weeks and available to start within the next two weeks (unemployed).

Commissioner for Public Appointments among other ministerial appointments this week
On Monday (18 August), First Minister and deputy First Minister announced the appointment of Claire Keatinge as the new Commissioner for Public Appointments for Northern Ireland, a role which is to regulate, monitor and report on a wide range of Ministerial appointments to the Boards of public bodies. Ms Keatinge was previously Director at Age NI and for the Alzheimer’s Society in Northern Ireland and took up her new post on 22 August for a period of five years. Also this week, Finance Minister John O’Dowd appointed Paul McGowan and Anthony Pygram to the Board of the Utility Regulator. Both appointments will commence on 25 August for a period of seven years. Lastly, on Thursday (21 August) Communities Minister Gordon Lyons announced the reappointment of Dr Kyle Leden, Dr Donal McAnallen, Liam McKinley and Carol Ramsey to the Historic Buildings Council. All four Members have served on HBC from 1 July 2022 to 30 June 2025, and will continue to in their roles until 30 June 2028.

Minister Kimmins welcomes £3.6 million investment in Bellaghy’s wastewater system
On Wednesday (20 August), Infrastructure Minister Liz Kimmins announced that NI Water would be taking forward a £3.6m investment programme of works on the wastewater network in the Bellaghy catchment during a visit to the area. Minister Kimmins said: “Funding, innovative thinking and working in partnership are at the heart of my three-pronged approach and I will continue to seek practical and innovative solutions to unlock capacity and deliver a better water and wastewater system to meet the needs of our growing population. Through the implementation of this three-pronged approach, since Autumn 2024, 5300 additional properties in counties Derry, Tyrone and Antrim will be able to connect to the wastewater system. This is above the 4,500 properties NI Water had initially planned to connect within this price control period up to 2027”.

Minister Lyons announces £2.5m for Homelessness Prevention services
During a visit to the NI Men’s team competing in the Homeless World Cup in Oslo next week, Minister Lyons praised the work of Street NI, a local charity which aims to positively impact disadvantaged groups through football, and announced £2.5 million in funding towards their work. Minister Lyons said: “My ambition is the prevention of homelessness and charities like Street NI are key to this goal. The stories I have heard today have been truly inspiring and highlight the continued need to support those in crisis, while working on innovative ways to prevent homelessness”. Alongside football, Street NI offers support with housing, employment, education, addictions and mental health issues.

GP and former Chair of BMA writes that NI has “failed” in providing healthcare for “most vulnerable”
In a platform piece in the Irish News, former Chair of BMA NI Council and current GP in Londonderry/Derry, Dr Tom Black wrote that “it is clear that the Northern Ireland state has failed in its most important duty, which is healthcare for the most vulnerable in our society”, adding that NHS services in Northern Ireland are “so bad we wouldn’t accept it for our pets not to mention our relatives”. Referring to his role as a GP, he said that it is now “close to impossible” to work as a GP “serving a deprived population who cannot afford to go privately”, due to the lack of funding and staffing within the service. Dr Black claimed that the NHS in NI “has already failed”, adding that “no-one has a plan to fix it” and challenged politicians to “step up and make the hard decisions needed” or to resign. He proposed that increasing funding, through taxation or charges, would be part of the solution, as well as “alternative funding streams to recruit staff and deliver better services”. He concluded that Ireland’s Sláintecare, its hybrid GP practices and funding, are difficult to “compete with” and said that NI “must adapt to compete or we need an all-island health service”. In response, Sinn Féin health spokesperson Philp McGuigan MLA advocated for all-island collaboration on healthcare, noting previous underfunding from the UK Government. Also in response, the Department of Health referenced its “projected £600m gap” in funding, adding that total investment in GP services this year will be £414m.

First Irish language and Ulster-Scots commissioners set to be confirmed
On Friday (22 August), BBC NI reported that Northern Ireland’s first Irish language and Ulster-Scots commissioners are set to be confirmed. Both offices were set up as part of the New Decade New Approach deal agreed in 2020 which led to the restoration of the Stormont Executive. The Ulster Scots commissioner will also encourage and monitor how public bodies deliver services in Ulster Scots. It reported that BBC News NI understands the Irish language commissioner role has been offered to Pól Deeds, the deputy chief executive of the cross-border body Foras na Gaeilge, where he has been advising governments both sides of the border, as well as public and private sector bodies, on the promotion of Irish language. Meanwhile, it was reported that former Belfast DUP councillor Lee Reynolds has been offered the post of Ulster-Scots commissioner, the role involves encouraging and monitoring how public bodies deliver services in Ulster Scots. Mr Reynolds was an adviser to former DUP leader and First Minister Arlene Foster. Both appointments are jointly approved by the First and deputy First ministers, reported BBC NI.

Heather Humphreys favourite to secure Fine Gael nomination
Coverage in The Irish Times has indicated that Heather Humphreys, former Cavan-Monaghan TD and cabinet minister, with previous roles in Social Protection, Justice, Arts, and Rural and Community Development, , looks set as the favourite for the Fine Gael nomination. More than 40 Fine Gael TDs, Senators and MEPs now lending her their support. Humphreys is notable for both her array of political experience and her personal background; born Heather Stewart in the village of Drum, County Monaghan as a Presbyterian, her father was a member of the Orange Order, with her grandfather signing the Ulster Covenant rejecting Home Rule. Alluding to her heritage, in 2016, Humphreys wrote: “given my background as a Protestant and an Ulsterwoman who is a proud Irish republican, I appreciate the need to respect the differing traditions on this island”, making her a unique choice as a candidate for the Irish Presidency. Speaking following her campaign launch on Tuesday, Humphreys said; “We’re living in an increasingly divisive world, and I believe that the President can be a unifying force in this country that really brings people together and throughout my political career, I have always sought to break down barriers and reach out that hand of friendship,”. Seán Kelly, MEP for Ireland South and former GAA President, is also seeking the Fine Gael nomination. Speaking to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland on Tuesday, Kelly said that Fine Gael members “would like to have a contest”, adding: “A contest is good for parties, it’s good for democracies”. Humphreys has also been backed by prominent members of the Regional Independents group, which supports the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in Government, including Ministers Seán Canney and Noel Grealish.

Taoiseach, Tánaiste welcome ‘clarity’ on EU-US trade agreement
Coverage by RTE has highlighted the Irish Government’s appreciation regarding securing increased clarity from the US concerning the EU-US trade deal, which sets a maximum tariff rate of 15% for the pharmaceutical sector. The Irish Government has welcomed increased clarity regarding the EU-US trade deal, which sets a maximum tariff rate of 15% for the pharmaceutical sector, RTÉ News reports. Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the agreement was a “significant win” for the European Union, stating that “given the scale of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors in Ireland, it is important that the Joint Statement confirms that 15% is a ceiling that will apply to EU exports in these areas in all circumstances, including when the current US Section 232 investigations are concluded”. He added that “a specific carve-out for aircraft and aircraft parts is also welcome”. Also responding to the news, Tánaiste Simon Harris, who is Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, said the agreement “provides an important shield to Irish exporters that could have been subject to much larger tariffs”. Harris said he hoped the negotiations would lead to a “comprehensive and formal agreement with the US in the future”. He also said the Government will publish a ‘Market Diversification Action Plan’ on Monday (25 August).

Fixed charge offences for breaches of new drone regulations on the way
Following initial reports in The Journal, the Government has this week published its National Policy Framework for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), which sets a long-term path to grow drone services while protecting safety, security, privacy, and the environment. The framework includes plans by the Department of Transport to introduce fixed-charge offences, or on-the-spot fines, for UAS infringements. Launching the plans, Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien TD also announced the establishment of a new National Working Group on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to develop “transparent processes and procedures” for the designation of new drone “geographical zones”. Minister O’Brien said the document was “developed through cross-government engagement structures, and it is informed by public and industry consultation” with the aim of “facilitat[ing] consideration of how matters such as planning and environmental issues will be addressed by the appropriate authorities, including in the context of the expansion of commercial drone delivery services”. Responding to the announcement, Green Party Leader Roderic O’Gorman TD, who represents the Dublin West constituency, voiced criticism for the project, highlighting how the document gave no timeline for when noise standards, data protection oversight, or airspace controls will be meaningfully implemented, stating; “the framework offers industry a green light, but gives communities no say, no protection, and no timeline for when safeguards will arrive. That’s not responsible policymaking; it’s passing the buck.” In addition to fines and new traffic systems, the policy plan also seeks to increase drone business and innovation in Ireland, with proposals including plans for ‘test sites’ to be identified where those working in the drone sector, in conjunction with the Irish Aviation Authority, will be allowed carry out “experimental and developing” drone operations.

Are we watching the collapse of the Alliance ‘surge’?– Alex Kane
In Friday’s Irish News, Alex Kane analyses the decline in support for Alliance, after the latest LucidTalk poll showed their support on 12%. Kane writes there will be “genuine concern” with the party about “slippage in electoral support” and, in particular, leader Naomi Long’s approval ratings. Kane focuses on the party’s low approval among unionist voters. He writes that “Alliance’s surge, which began after the Brexit result, was heavily dependent on a noticeable shift from a section of the UUP’s base”. However, he states that “Windsor Framework and sea border has unsettled a very substantial majority of political/electoral unionism”, with increasing numbers having “bought into Jim Allister’s analysis that Northern Ireland has been reduced to colony status”. Kane notes that a run of six successive elections post-Brexit where Alliance increased their vote share came to an end at the 2024 general election, their “first setback since 2017”. He also says that a “serious split in the unionist vote” allowed the party to secure their only seat, Lagan Valley, which Kane does not think will occur at the next general election. He also speculates that unionist parties “will reach a quiet arrangement when it comes to fielding candidates in the Assembly election due in 2027”. Given rising worries about the impact of the NI Protocol and Windsor Framework “on Northern Ireland’s position within the United Kingdom”, Kane argues that unionist voters “who have been prepared to back Alliance over the last six years will shift back to unionist parties” while Alliance maintains support for the post-Brexit arrangements. He concludes that while current polls “might not amount to a hill of beans come the next election,” it is possible that “we may already be seeing the collapse of the surge: something that happened to the party after its original surge in 1973”.

Monday 1 September 2025
NI Assembly returns from summer recess
UK Parliament returns from summer recess

Monday 8 September 2025
First sitting of NI Assembly
Question Time: The Executive Office; Education

Tuesday 9 September 2025
Question Time: Finance

Wednesday 17 September 2025
Houses of the Oireachtas return from summer recess
Festival of Business 2025, St George’s Market, Belfast – read more here.

Friday 19 September 2025
Centre for Cross Border Cooperation Annual Conference, Ballymascanlon Hotel, Dundalk – read more here.

Saturday 20 September 2025
DUP Conference, La Mon Hotel, Belfast

Saturday 20 – Tuesday 23 September 2025
Liberal Democrats Party Conference, La Mon Hotel, Belfast

Saturday 20 –  Friday 26 September 2025
Belfast Tech Week – read more here.

Wednesday 24 September 2025
Belfast Business Show, Clayton Hotel – read more here.
Northern Ireland Energy Summit, ICC Belfast – read more here.

Thursday 25 September 2025
Entrepreneurs Unleashed Conference, Cathy Short Theatre, Jennymount Business Park, Belfast – read more here.
Northern Ireland Green Skills Conference, Europa Hotel, Belfast – read more here.

Sunday 28 September – Wednesday 1 October 2025
Labour Party Conference, Heathrow Lounge, ACC Liverpool

Sunday 28 September 2025
The Northern Ireland Reception at the Labour Party Conference, Heathrow Lounge, ACC Liverpool – read more here. 

Wednesday 1 October 2025
InterTradeIreland Trade Conference 2025, Aviva Stadium, Dublin – read more here. 

Friday 3 October- Saturday 4 October 2025
SDLP Conference, Crowne Plaza Belfast

Sunday 5 October – Wednesday 8 October 2025
Conservative Party Conference, Manchester Central Convention Centre

Thursday 9 October – Friday 10 October 2025
NIFHA Annual Conference, City Hotel, Derry~Londonderry – read more here. 

Saturday 11 October 2025
UUP Conference, Crowne Plaza, Belfast

Saturday 25 October – Sunday 2 November 2025
NI Assembly Halloween recess 

Friday 12 December 2025
NI Assembly Christmas recess begins

Friday 24 – Saturday 25 April 2026
Sinn Féin Ard Fheis, Waterfront Hall, Belfast