Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for August 25, 2025

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of August the 25th, 2025.

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin with that, uh, dollar index here using the USDU, the Wisdom Tree Bloomberg US Dollar Bull Fund that I mentioned in last week’s weekly outlook. Now, that forecast coming to fruition as we see the dollar rising throughout the week, but then taking a fairly substantial hit, giving it all back on Friday based on, uh, again, Powell’s interpretation of Powell’s comments.

Now, I’ll leave it brief and just say that was a lot of word soup. Uh, maybe he’s hiking, maybe he’s not hiking. Maybe the labor report is—or the labor market is—is, uh, a concern, maybe it’s not. So, the market taking that as a dovish, uh, dovish take on the inflation part, but I’m not convinced that that’s actually what he said. And, in fact, I’m not even sure he knows what he said.

So, for now, we remain above the quarterly opening price at 25.77. In most cases, the dollar sees a stronger September. Now, Powell may have killed this, but what I will point out in closing on the dollar is there is a lot of data coming up before the next Fed meeting. So, I’ll leave it there. Uh, but for now, even after that, uh, Powell’s comments on Friday, the dollar has pretty much held above its weekly opening price. But the main area we want to keep an eye on is 25.77.

And again, in most cases, you have dollar buying, uh, at the end of the month into the first week of the new month. And you usually have strong dollar buying in the month of September. The indicators show short-term pressure on Monday, but be careful that we could see a complete reversal by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Now, gold has responded very favorably to the Fed, and you can see that we have a fresh buy signal that started forming on Wednesday of last week: the MA diff cross.

Now again, in most cases, when a fundamental announcement like the Fed sends something higher or lower, it doesn’t always have sustainability. So, I would be very, very cautious, especially going into September. But gold should at least be able to move back towards its most recent highs at 3403, potentially a little bit higher up to 3435.

But in most cases, September is not a strong month for gold. But the indicators in VP currently are showing at least near-term momentum. Uh, but again, be very careful when we get into Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday of next week because, again, this is an outlook here, guys—not a recap of something that’s already happened.

So, the immediate move on Monday on gold is likely to see a fairly significant spike. The question is, can it go higher? And again, I’m not convinced that, uh, Fed Chair Powell knows exactly what he’s doing here. And in fact, most things point to a lot of confusion. So again, that labor report for September is going to be very, very important to say the least.

Now, the price on the SPYs and the equities in general did very poorly most of the week. But, as you can see, we got a rebound back up off the T cross long on Friday, but for all the wrong reasons.

If the market is only betting on stocks going up because the Fed is going into a rate cut cycle—yes, I believe he probably will cut once in September. But I will remind the audience here too that, uh, when the initial CPI release came out, it went to 100% probability of a cut. Then the PPI number came out a few days later, and since that PPI number, the Fed funds futures dropped down as low as, I believe, 65–70%.

So, a lot of confusion around this. But for now, uh, the equity markets are likely going to feed off of the Fed comments. That key T cross long coming in at 637.67—we need to hold above that if we’re going to start making new highs.

I would also say be very, very cautious around the most recent verified zone high at 646. But structurally speaking, we’re above our monthly opening price, our yearly opening price, and our quarterly opening. So, that price structure is bullish by definition.

The question is, does it have enough momentum, or is the market going to continue to believe that the Fed is going to cut multiple times? That’s what all of this comes down to. And in my respectful opinion, the only person causing this volatility, uh, is the FOMC—more specifically J. Powell.

Now, with Bitcoin, Bitcoin also now recovering based on the Fed. But all of these markets are correlated to interest rates and the Fed announcements.

So again, we’ve recovered, but Bitcoin still didn’t turn positive on the week. So, uh, yes, it remains moderately bullish, but in most cases, Bitcoin strengthens closer to mid-to-latter part of September into October. But we do have a fresh MA diff cross that’s occurring right now on Saturday morning—as you can see at 10:19 a.m. on Saturday morning while Bitcoin is still trading, excuse me.

But that signal is saying that the immediate move on Bitcoin on Monday is likely going to be to the upside. But again, be careful of a Monday-Tuesday reversal.

Now, oil prices—again trying to recover here, but not getting above the T cross long at 74.37. That is our key level, that T cross long.

But now we’ve slipped firmly below the yearly opening price. Terrible month for oil. As you can see, we started the month and it basically just went straight down. Now, there are some signs of momentum building, but again, if we’re talking about a possible recession, well, that doesn’t really favor longs on oil.

But for now, there is some upside momentum building on oil. But respectfully, 76.84 is likely going to contain any rally, and then we move lower yet again.

And certainly we should be looking at the VIX. When we look at the VIX, it’s been moving lower. It basically ignored the bulk of the Fed speak.

So again, we’ve been pulling down lower. No signs of really any relief on the VIX. And I certainly don’t think you’re going to get that on Monday—maybe not on Tuesday either. But I think it’s going to take several days for the market to digest what the Fed really said.

Because I’ve looked through his notes, I watched the press conference, and I just saw an awful lot of confusion: manipulating economic indicators, changing economic rules—uh, just a lot of confusion is what I saw and what I’ve seen with this Fed for months.

So, if they believe multiple cuts are coming, then the VIX would continue to move lower. Uh, so we’ll monitor that, but most of the indicators in VP support that particular thesis.

Now, when we look at the European markets, the DAX held its ground quite well this week even though we had a bit of a falling euro. But you can see the DAX following the euro lower but then rebounded on Friday with the Euro-US currency.

So, for next week 44.98 is very, very important. And I will point out: if you look at the DAX futures, I believe that Global X did a much better job of smoothing out the real price of the DAX versus the futures side where you’ve got all that volatility in the Asian session, the European London session, part of the North American session.

But this has remained that the DAX is still a long. So, if the S&P continues to advance, that is likely also to help the DAX higher. But again, in my respectful opinion, I think your culprit is right over here.

And this is not something we see that often—with a positive correlation between the euro and the DAX. Usually, it works actually the same way as the US dollar and the S&P and the NASDAQ: dollar down, equities up. But the euro and the DAX have been positively correlated the better part of the calendar year.

Perfect 👍 Thanks for confirming. I’ll continue the rest of the transcript in the same format, with full punctuation and bolded header titles for each product analyzed.

We are below the current quarterly opening price. We only got above it very slightly—up to about the 1.18. I believe it was around 1.1813—our highest price on the euro at approximately 1.1835. Don’t quote me on that; I think it was around that level. It was on here somewhere.

But anyway, right now we are above the yearly and we’re above the monthly, but the quarterly opening price at 1.1787—we need a clean break of this area to be very, very clear. If we can’t get that, we’ve had multiple failures in this level the entire month. A number of lower lows coming in—you can see right there, we came down lower again. We’re rebounding.

But the question here again is: what does the market believe going forward with this particular Fed? So keep an eye on our T cross long—that’s coming in at 1.1650. But the area you really need to focus on is 1.1787. Can we get above that? That will be the big question here.

So with the euro rising, the US Swiss Franc has rebounded to some degree here—uh, to the downside, excuse me. But again, 0.7930 is the quarterly opening price. We are going to see some type of dollar buying.

This is a normal occurrence here, guys. And if stocks continue to advance, that should help weaken the yen and the Swiss Franc. But right now, 0.7930—that’s the key area. The immediate move on Monday and Tuesday is likely to the downside. But I anticipate that 0.7930 will hold.

Now again, the British pound—most of these currencies have taken a pretty substantial hit this past week against the dollar. And I went through all of this in last week’s outlook from a predictive standpoint. Again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened.

So, the main thing in these markets is forecasting the dollar because of the positive correlation and the inverse correlations. So right now, the British pound has rebounded. But once again, your retracement point is 1.3733. We need to clear this, and we’re coming into a period of known US dollar strength.

So I’m not sure if Powell is just trying to cool things off a bit here. The question is, is the market buying into it? We shall see. But right now there is a modest recovery on the British pound. But remember—the Bank of England is quite dovish also.

So, this is basically a standoff here between the global central banks. But the reality is, they’re all cutting. The Fed is behind the curve again. I believe if he had made a cut a couple of months ago, things would be smoothed out here. But he says in his most recent statement there would be no more of the catch-up stuff—catching up on rate cuts and all that. So, we’ll see what he does. But for now, we are likely retracing higher.

Now, the dollar yen again was doing quite well this week—right up until Friday, and then it gave all the gains back. And you’ll notice it came right up here to this particular verified zone—that high coming in at 148.52.

So now the question is, is the market concerned about the carry trade? If the Fed’s cutting multiple times, that’s going to change the interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and the Fed. So we’ll see how this one plays out.

But for now, I will point out that this pair has been very bearish on the year. The calendar yearly opening price 157.28—I was pretty vocal about this at the beginning of the year. Not a buyer of this pair anywhere near this 157. I believe this is grossly overvalued. It still is.

So again, is the market going to start paring back those carry trade positions? I believe they will—at least initially. That’s likely going to put additional downward pressure. But again, 144.04—the calendar quarterly opening price—that’s the area we’re targeting on the downside. I believe that’s where it can rebound.

Can it get down there by Thursday or Friday? Yes, I believe it actually could. So right now, that’s what you’re trading, guys. You’re trading between 150.77 and 144.04. So, we buy the bottoms, sell the tops to some degree. We just need to know what this Fed is actually going to do.

Now, the US Canadian pair once again—a very good place to be buying US dollars this past week until we got to Powell, and he gave it all back.

But I will remind everybody that there is no progress with the trade tariffs between Canada and the US. And Canada has just given up everything again, removing a bunch of tariffs. So, I don’t believe that this favors the Canadian dollar.

But if we can get a push lower, I believe that is a buying opportunity towards 1.3608. I suspect it’s very unlikely we’re going to get any kind of trade deal between Canada and the US anytime soon.

So again, a retracement lower would be perfectly normal, but that would be a buying opportunity. Again, only in my respectful opinion. We have an MA diff cross right now that is confirming that move lower.

But the question is: can we actually break through the T cross long at 1.3802? I believe we can. The question is: will there be any follow-through below 1.3722? I believe that area is the sweet spot to pick up additional longs. And the market will rethink Powell’s comments by probably the latter part of the week.

Now, the Aussie and the Kiwi both took a hit last week. But going forward, we’ve rebounded here. And as you can see, right on that particular opening price there. I’m just going to delete that so you can see the monthly opening price where it’s been pressured down to here. Then a big rebound off of that monthly opening price.

But we failed right at the Vantage Point T cross long—64.91. So with respect, guys, in the month of August, the volatility—you’re trading between the monthly opening price at 64.27 and the quarterly opening price at 65.81.

So we’re likely going to rebound back up towards the midpoint of that, and then we can reassess just above the 65 level. But again, I think there’s going to be a lot of choppiness between the Aussie and the Kiwi.

You can see the Kiwi took a really big hit this week on dovish comments from the Bank of New Zealand. But then even that recovered based on what the market—again, the market being very, very sensitive to these rate cuts or rate hikes. It’s more that the market is reacting to the statements than the actual event.

We all knew they were going to cut. But then it turned into a big dovish scenario, and next thing you know, the Kiwi was getting crushed across the board. So, we will have—and we do have—a very loose buy signal on that right now: the MA diff cross. But that would be corrective in nature, guys, back to the T cross long 59.14.

Because we have to ask ourselves: did Powell say anything that he hasn’t really said before? Well, on a couple of points, but make no mistake—he’s the one causing this volatility in the US dollar and in the global equity markets.

So, I think we’re in for another volatile, choppy week, but things should start to smooth out the closer we get towards the end of the week—keeping in mind that the dollar is still not dead just yet.

So, with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of August the 25th, 2025.