Russia is within a few weeks of attaining the goal of winning the long-term security of the embattled population of the Donbass who for eight years have been surrounded and attacked on a daily basis by Ukrainian forces. This operation by Kiev for all of these eight years since 2014 has gone largely unreported in the West. This has made for a situation where the majority of those living in the West have an entirely skewed concept of recent events in Ukraine where an entire section of the conflict’s history is unknown.
With the above in mind we can see that the political elites of the West have every opportunity to shape the Ukraine War in the minds of the majority of western citizens in the way they wish. Western mass media has done everything possible to enable this advantage, bringing a certain closed view that excludes any aspect of suffering experienced by the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass. With this advantage regarding the already established facade about the situation in Ukraine western elites can now push their agenda hard. But what will that agenda be?
In recent weeks we have seen a somewhat schizoid movement in elite western opinion from factions advocating ‘more war’ to those advocating ‘negotiations for peace’. However, the question of which faction should win out appears to have been resolved at the latest NATO summit. Those advocating ‘more war’ have clearly won out. Presumably this will remain the policy of western elites from this point until the bitter end, however that should play out and with whatever consequences.
What consequences can we expect from the ‘more war’ consensus that appears to have been agreed upon?
With the imminent securing of the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine by Russia it appears likely that Russia will at least to some extent mobilise additional forces for its future defence. In addition it is likely that it will move at least partly toward a war economy with additional resources creating the weaponry and defence capabilities required to safeguard the Donbass region from inevitable future Ukrainian/Western attacks. The Donetsk People’s Republic and that of Lugansk along with the new regions secured by Russia’s special military operation will no doubt all become part of the Russian Federation before long. This will see the start of an entirely new phase.
Without doubt all that remains of Ukraine will be mobilised at this point to an even greater extent than before, underpinned entirely by western finance. Great effort will be expended to rebuild its military forces with every possible assistance from the West. What effect the ongoing deterioration in western finances makes regarding this is hard to estimate. However, having been stated at the recent NATO summit that waging war has the highest priority, it seems clear that all necessary finances will be made available.
We are moving it seems with ever greater clarity to a very stark reality where the current lines of conflict between east and west that now remain somewhat blurred become ever more acutely focused and subject to inevitable mission creep. This mission creep is already evident of course but in this situation where Russia’s border has been extended further west it is inevitable that the “border” of the collective west will abut it along a line of utmost friction, a fiery area of potentially constant provocation, subversion and cross-border attacks.
With the advent of such a situation as described above it is clear that Russia will not stand idly by. The likelihood of Russia formally declaring war on Ukraine is high. Given this eventuality Russia will then continue to target any and all military resources within Ukraine and those arriving from its western allies. This policy of degrading Ukrainian military assets and potentially decision making centres across Ukraine, including in its major cities, will reach a peak if any sign of Ukraine imminently joining NATO is discerned.
All in all the fateful decision of the political elites of the collective west to wage war and exclude the possibility of winning the peace through negotiations will, in my opinion, lead to something close to the scenario above and this I offer should instil a sense of foreboding in every human heart worldwide.