UFC Cage Locks: Pair of Fighting Nerds look to continue hot streaks in Paris

The UFC returns to Paris, France this weekend for the fourth consecutive September with a Fight Night card that could produce the next middleweight title challenger.

Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho are riding impressive hot streaks into their 185-pound main event and a dominant victory could be enough for either to warrant a shot at new champion Khamzat Chimaev. Imavov is from France and will have the home crowd advantage over his Brazilian opponent.

The co-main event is another France vs. Brazil matchup as French lightweight finisher Benoit Saint Denis faces brilliant Brazilian striker Mauricio Ruffy in a pivotal matchup at 155 pounds.

The 13-bout event has a slew of European talent including the UFC debut of Croatia’s Ante Delija, a former PFL tournament champion set to face Polish heavyweight stalwart Marcin Tybura in a rematch of a 2015 bout.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC Paris plus full predictions…

— Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho

— Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy

— Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig

— Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones

— Axel Sola vs. Rhys McKee

— William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchala  

— Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro

— Marcin Tybura vs. Ante Delija

— Harry Hardwick vs. Kaue Fernandes

— Sam Patterson vs. Trey Waters

— Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek

— Andreas Gustafsson vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

— Shauna Bannon vs. Sam Hughes

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

Cage Lock: Oumar Sy -500

Favourite: Kaue Fernandes -170

Underdog: Marcin Tybura -105

Dart Throw: Tybura wins by submission +1000

I was unimpressed with Sy in his last bout, but this matchup is far too favourable for Sy. With Ribeiro’s porous takedown defence, he should be able to dictate the terms of this fight and win handily. … Fernandes should be a bigger favourite despite the accolades of Hardwick in Cage Warriors. This short notice assignment is a tall order as Fernandes is very underrated. … Tybura won his first matchup against Delija by injury stoppage prior to his time in the UFC, and he has improved as a fighter much more than his former foe. I believe Tybura gets this fight to the ground and you can never underestimate his opportunistic submissions when he establishes top control.

Cage Lock: Modestas Bukauskas -350

Favourite: William Gomis -268

Underdog: Marcin Tybura -105

Dart Throw: Ruffy by decision +450

Bukauskas has been on a roll in 2025 and should claim his third win of the year on Saturday. I’m a big fan of his opponent Paul Craig but he is 1-5 in his last six bouts and all the momentum is clearly with Bukauskas in this one. I will reluctantly lock this one in and assume we don’t see a vintage display from Paul Craig in Paris. … As long as he has a smooth weight cut, I think William Gomis gets back in the win column on home soil. His opponent Robert Ruchala has dominated the Polish regional scene but this will be a step up in competition as he makes his UFC debut. Prior to losing to Hyder Amil by decision back in March, Gomis was on a four-fight win streak in the UFC and his experience at this level should give him the edge here. … I also think Tybura’s UFC experience gives him the edge. Tybura holds a win over his opponent Ante Delija in another promotion a decade ago. Delija suffered a nasty leg break in that fight and this could weigh heavily on his mindset once the Octagon door shuts and self-doubt starts to creep in. This is also Delija’s UFC debut, while Tybura has faced some of the very best heavyweights in the promotion. … Maurico Ruffy’s KO over King Green was so spectacular I think it has impacted the money line here. Benoit Saint-Denis has been knocked out twice recently but will do everything to avoid getting slept in front of his home crowd. Ruffy did recently go to a decision with James Llontop. Not an impossible outcome here in my opinion and potential for some great returns.

Cage Lock: Bannon vs. Hughes goes distance -385

Favourite: Mauricio Ruffy -180

Underdog: Nassourdine Imavov +110

Dart Throw: Sam Patterson to win by submission in Round 2 +600

Ironically, my most confident pick this week was going to be taking Patricio Pitbull as a sizeable underdog before that one unfortunately got cancelled. Instead, I’m going with one Fighting Nerd in the co-main event and against another in the main event. Imavov opened as the favourite in the headliner and has the stronger strength of schedule but the line has swung to the Borralho side, so I see value on the home fighter. He should have an advantage on the feet if he can keep it standing. … BSD leaves himself open too often and Ruffy is a sniper who should be able to pick his spot and potentially add another highlight KO to his record. … Bannon is coming off a nice stoppage win but usually requires three rounds and Hughes has gone the distance in five straight and eight of her past nine so a finish is unlikely in the prelim opener.

Three legs: Sy + Bukauskas + Bannon vs. Hughes goes distance

Parlay odds: -106 (to win: $94.37)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 29 EVENTS

2025 winnings: +$183.58 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (61-54-1, +21.32 units)

Cage Lock: 24-5 (-$14.79)

Favourite: 14-15 (-$733.28)

Underdog: 15-13-1 (+$980.24)

Dart throw: 8-21 (+$1,900)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (59-54-3, -9.54 units)

Cage Lock: 24-5 (-$41.58)

Favourite: 17-11-1 (-$252.65)

Underdog: 16-12-1 (+$830.24)

Dart throw: 2-26-1 (-$1,490)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (48-64-4, -23.27 units)

Cage Lock: 21-8 (-$122.23)

Favourite: 16-13 (-$270.14)

Underdog: 10-17-2 (+$200)

Dart throw: 1-26-2 (-$2,135)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)