UFC Cage Locks: Blanchfield, Barber headline action at the Apex

Stakes are high in the women’s flyweight division this weekend as top-five contenders Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber headline Fight Night action at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Barber is returning from a lengthy layoff, during which she rehabilitated a knee injury, and will look to extend her current winning streak to seven in a row in her first UFC main event. Saturday’s card will be Blanchfield’s third main event.

Top 10 lightweight staple Mateusz Gamrot returns to action against the streaking Ludovit Klein in the co-main event in a pairing of two of the best European 155-pounders in mixed martial arts.

The card features plenty of Dana White’s Contender Series alumni, including Barber and middleweight knockout artists Zachary Reese and Dusko Todorovic who’ll kick off the main card against one another.

The official weigh-ins were a bit of a disaster on Friday with multiple fighters coming in heavy and one preliminary bout getting cancelled. Barber and flyweight Allan Nascimento missed weight and will be each fined 20 per cent of their respective purses. A scheduled bantamweight bout between top-five-ranked 135-pounders Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson was changed to a featherweight contest after Viera was unable to cut to the bantamweight limit. Viera was fined 25 per cent of her purse. All fines will go to each fighter’s opponent.

Also, a catchweight bout between Trevin Giles and Andreas Gustafsson after Giles was unable to weigh in. According to Gustafsson, who posted a video to his Instagram page, Giles fell and hit his head while cutting weight.

Projected bout order and full predictions for UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber below… 

— Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber

— Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein

— Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Billy Ray Goff

— Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes

— Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson       

— Zachary Reese vs. Dusko Todorovic

— Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento

— Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt

— Bolaji Oki vs. Michael Aswell

— Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Reese vs. Todorovic ends in KO/TKO -303
Favourite: Dustin Jacoby -189
Underdog: Alice Ardelean +220
Dart Throw: Macy Chiasson wins inside the distance +475

Nearly all of Reese and Todorovic’s fights have resulted in a TKO/KO finish and I expect that this one is no exception. … Jacoby is a far more refined striker than Lopes and while Lopes should have the power advantage, Jacoby’s chin and striking defence have made him difficult to finish. I expect Jacoby outlasts Lopes for a late finish or decision. … Ardelean vs. dos Santos has volatility and split decision written all over it. If dos Santos does not try to force takedowns and tries to outpoint Ardelean on the feet, I think that this one goes either way. … Chiasson has been one of the better finishers in the women’s bantamweight division and has finished her last two fights. I think that a finish against Vieira is very much on the table here.

DAN’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Bolaji Oki -357
Favourite: Erin Blanchfield -238
Underdog: Kurt Holobaugh +180
Dart Throw: Jafel Filho by submission +600

I have no doubts that Saturday’s main event will be closely contested. I just think Barber has been away from the Octagon for too long to be thrust into a five-round fight against a battle ready fighter like Blanchfield. She has been in recent five-rounders against Rose Namajunas and Manon Fiorot while we haven’t seen Barber in action in over a year. I think rust could be a deciding factor in this one.

Bolaji Oki was on a roll before losing back in September to Chris Duncan. His opponent Michael Aswell Jr. comes into this fight on short notice with no UFC experience. Not many safe picks on this card, so I will settle on this one. … Kurt Holobaugh has that dog in him which makes him difficult to count out and even scarier to bet against. He put up a great fight against Alexander Hernandez last time out and I don’t think Jordan Leavitt is at that same level. … I almost went with Holobaugh by decision as my dart throw but will settle on Filho by submission. Both Filho and his opponent Allan Nascimento are submission threats and one of them is likely snatching a limb en route to victory. Going with Filho here since the odds are higher and a submission finish is very much in play.

MIKE’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Macy Chiasson -133
Favourite: Mateusz Gamrot -156
Underdog: Ramiz Brahimaj +310
Dart Throw: Erin Blanchfield by KO/TKO in Round 2 or 4 +2800

My lock was going to be Andreas Gustafsson to beat Trevin Giles before Giles withdrew at the eleventh hour and was going to pick Chiasson as my favourite but after her opponent had difficulty making weight it adds to my confidence that Chiasson is the better prepared athlete this week. … The moneyline has drifted Klein’s way this week – probably due to questions about Gamrot’s chin since he does get dropped now and then – but Gamrot is a bone fide top-10 lightweight with a much better strength of schedule so I give him the edge in what should be a competitive three-rounder. … If Blanchfield gets a finish in the main event it’ll likely be a submission but I also see ground-and-pound as a potential path to victory. … Brahimaj vs. Goff should be fun for however long it lasts.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Reese vs. Todorovic ends in KO/TKO + Oki + Chiasson
Parlay odds: +198 (to win: $198.28)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 17 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 record: 10-7 (L1)
2025 winnings: +$414.90 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+6.80 units)
Best bet: 15-2 (+$135.43)
Favourite: 8-9 (-$460.65)
Underdog: 9-7-1 (+$505.24)
Dart throw: 4-13 (+$500)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-0.75 units)
Best bet: 16-1 (+$218.78)
Favourite: 9-7 (-$189.40)
Underdog: 12-5 (+$935.24)
Dart throw: 1-15-1 (-$1,040)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-14.56 units)
Best bet: 12-5 (-$41.32)
Favourite: 10-7 (+$104.74)
Underdog: 6-10-1 (+$80)
Dart throw: 0-16-1 (-$1,600)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)