UFC 324 Cage Locks: Can ‘Paddy the Baddy’ kick off year with title win?

The UFC is set to make its 2026 debut on Saturday after a rare six-week stretch without any events. UFC 324 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and a new year means new opportunities for fight fans to call their shots.

Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds every fight week and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars. They’ll each select their best bet (that they’ll combine together for a Cage Locks Parlay), one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager to see if they can pick their spots and predict some outcomes accurately.

In 2025, our panel of UFC prognosticators had mixed results at the betting window while taking on the oddsmakers. Aaron and Dan both finished comfortably above .500 and although Mike finished under .500 all three finished the year in the green on underdog their picks. Dan’s 85-77-6 record was the best overall across 42 events but Aaron ended the year with the most fantasy dollars (+18.43 units) thanks in large part to him nailing 10 longshot, dart throw wagers over the course of the year.

The Cage Locks Parlay finished with a winning record (23-19) and a positive profit margin (+1.77 units) for a second consecutive year. Meanwhile, Mike only hit on two dart throws and was a parlay saboteur on 13 different occasions which contributed to a down year on predictions.

UFC 324 is headlined by Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett who’ll compete for an interim lightweight title.

Pimblett is 7-0 in the UFC but his strength of schedule is nowhere near as strong as Gaethje’s yet despite the disparity in top-level experience, the younger English fighter is heavily favoured over the older American.

“Fascinating. It’s absolutely fascinating, yes,” UFC president Dana White told Sportsnet this week while reacting to the fact Gaethje is a +190 underdog to Pimblett who’s a -210 favourite. “Knockout power in both hands and unbelievable leg kicks yet he’s the underdog in this fight.”

The card also features a handful of former UFC champions, including Sean O’Malley who faces Song Yadong in a bantamweight co-main event.

Below you can find the projected bout order plus full predictions:

— Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett (five rounds for interim lightweight title)

— Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong

— Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis

— Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas

— Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva

— Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

— Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev

— Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas

— Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

— Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez

— Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman

— Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller

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Cage Lock: Namajunas vs. Silva goes distance -400

Favourite: Sean O’Malley -208

Underdog: Justin Gaethje +190

Dart Throw: Adam Fugitt wins by decision +900

Most of these picks are based more on what I know than what my gut tells me. I know that, at least in recent years, Namajunas and Silva typically go the distance when matched up against tough opponents, I know that O’Malley should have advantages against Song no matter where the fight takes place, and I know that Pimblett has never faced anyone close to the level of Gaethje. … For the dart throw, Fugitt is a talented fighter and I believe that he could give the debuting Ty Miller a tough fight.

Cage Lock: Ateba Gautier -800

Favourite: Paddy Pimblett -225

Underdog: Song Yadong +170

Dart Throw: Denzel Freeman by submission +1800

Even though Umar Nurmagomedov is a bigger favourite on this card, I think Ateba Gautier’s opponent will offer less resistance. Hard to see an outcome that doesn’t involve Gautier getting his hand raised as he cruises to a 4-0 UFC record. All three of his UFC fights have ended in a KO victory and the trend is likely to continue here. … Regardless of the outcome Saturday, I think Justin Gaethje can still compete with the sport’s elite. I also think this particular clash of styles favours Pimblett. If Pimblett gets this to the ground at any point, the fight could be over. I think he will be prepared for the striking power of Gaethje and will probably land a few big shots of his own.

They say that winning is contagious in sports, but in MMA so can losing. We’ve seen it happen with various fighters over the years including current bantamweight champ Peter Yan. I think Sean O’Malley may be on the verge of falling into this category. In his last two bouts against Merab Dvalishvili he looked like a shell of his former self. Not just his skillset but his demeanour, swagger and everything that went into making the ‘Suga Show.’ While O’Malley is the odds-on favourite, I think he will need to be at his absolute best to stop a surging contender like Song Yadong. If self-doubt starts to creep in for the former champ, Yadong will likely take advantage and win the fight. … Denzel Freeman could win this via decision and provide a +450 payout but with it being the first Cage Locks of the year, let’s dream a little bigger! Freeman is a high-level wrestler who has trained with Olympians and Jon Jones. He also has plenty of MMA experience outside the UFC. Prior to joining the UFC, he snatched a submission win over Steven Asplund, who I consider to be a better fighter than Josh Hokit. There is no question that Hokit, who is new to MMA, will go pedal to the metal here early on which could lead him to make a costly mistake against a crafty opponent. A Freeman submission victory is not out of the realm of possibility here and would come with an extremely generous payout.

Cage Lock: Cortes-Acosta vs. Lewis ends inside distance -290

Favourite: Modestas Bukauskas -149

Underdog: Arnold Allen +240

Dart Throw: Umar Nurmagomedov by Round 2 submission +650

He hasn’t fought in more than a year and a half and only has one win since 2022, but it feels like people are forgetting just how good Arnold Allen is so I like him as a more than two-to-one underdog. … Unless Cortes-Acosta and Lewis fight timid and it’s an all-time snoozer, one of those heavyweights is getting put away with a big punch. … Nurmagomedov is a terrible style matchup for Deiveson Figueiredo, who’s approaching 40 and didn’t come close to making weight Friday.

Three legs: Namajunas/Silva goes distance + Gautier wins + Cortes-Acosta/Lewis ends inside distance

Parlay odds: -112 (to win: $89.12)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)