UFC 321 Cage Locks: Does Gane have a realistic shot at upsetting Aspinall?

Tom Aspinall returns from his extended layoff Saturday at UFC 321 against three-time title challenger Ciryl Gane with the heavyweight championship on the line in Abu Dhabi.

Aspinall enters the matchup as a four-to-one betting favourite as he looks to cement his status as the best heavyweight in mixed martial arts.

The co-main event will see a new strawweight champion crowned when Mackenzie Dern takes on Virna Jandiroba in a vacant title bout in a rematch of a fight from five years ago.

The UFC 321 main card could see multiple title challengers emerge in a couple different divisions as Umar Nurmagomedov faces fellow bantamweight Mario Bautista and Alexander Volkov meets Jailton Almeida in a heavyweight title eliminator. Azamat Murzakanov will attempt to stay perfect in MMA when he takes on Aleksandar Rakic in a 205-pound contest.

All 10 main card athletes successfully made weight Friday but the same could not be said for all fighters on the preliminary card.

Jose Delgado missed the non-title featherweight limit of 146 pounds by one pound and will forfeit 20 per cent of his purse but his bout with Nathaniel Wood will remain on the card.

Azat Maksum was three pounds above the non-title flyweight limit of 126 pounds. He will forfeit 30 per cent of his purse to his opponent, Mitch Raposo, but the fight will proceed at a catchweight. 

Also, a scheduled lightweight bout between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo was cancelled due to undisclosed personal reasons on the Al-Selwady side.

Below is the projected bout order for UFC 321 plus full predictions:

— Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

— Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern

— Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista

— Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida

— Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov

— Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld

— Ikram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun-yong

— Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki

— Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland

— Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Delgado

— Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett

— Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo

— Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

Cage Lock: Gane vs. Aspinall ends inside the distance -700

Favourite: Ikram Aliskerov -227

Underdog: Alexander Volkov +175

Dart Throw: Louie Sutherland by KO/TKO +550

I don’t foresee the main event going the distance, especially considering that Aspinall has never seen a third round. In fact, Aspinall has barely amassed 25 minutes of cage time over the totality of his fighting career. … I believe that Aliskerov has advantages over Park wherever the fight goes and while Park has been notoriously pesky, I think that Aliskerov finds an early finish. … Volkov has the ability to use his size advantage to stifle the takedowns of Almeida and if he does, it will be an easy night at the office for the underdog. Easier said than done, but Volkov has shown vast improvement. … Sutherland is a heavyweight with power and a knockout is his best path to victory over an improving Valter Walker. To get long odds on that scenario is something that cannot be passed up.

Cage Lock: Umar Nurmagomedov -625

Favourite: Ikram Aliskerov -227

Underdog: Virna Jandiroba +145

Dart Throw: Cyril Gane wins inside the distance +475

Every week we are reminded that anything can happen in MMA. As the odds continue to trend towards Aspinall some amazing value plays are starting to show up for Gane. It’s hard to see this fight going the distance but Gane is more than capable of getting a finish. The fact the odds are stacked so heavily against him makes this play well worth a dart throw. … On the safer side, which can be equally unpredictable at times, I like Umar Nurmagomedov and Ikram Aliskerov’s chance of claiming routine victories. While Virna Jandiroba in the underdog role is always a great bet no matter who the opponent is. Expect a very close title fight with Mackenzie Dern which likely gets decided on scorecards.

Cage Lock: Tom Aspinall -400

Favourite: Aleksandar Rakic -110

Underdog: Virna Jandiroba +145

Dart Throw: Aspinall by Round 2 submission +1100

There’s more on the line in the UFC 321 main event than merely a gold belt and bragging rights. I argue the entire fate of MMA’s heavyweight division is at stake. If Gane wins, not only would the next title fight be either Gane vs. Jailton Almeida or Gane vs. Volkov 3 (neither of which is very appealing if it’s for the title), but Jon Jones would also get to hold onto bragging rights until the end of time. Unless Aspinall is completely careless with his defence and leaves his chin exposed, the reigning champ should steamroll Gane. That’s why I’m sticking with Aspinall for my dart throw and going against the grain to say this fight sees a second round. … Despite Aleksandar Rakic’s recent losing streak, I still see him as a potential future light-heavyweight champion and even though he began the week as an underdog I think there’s solid value on him as a pick’em or slight favourite. … In a five-round fight, I see Jandiroba being able to overcome an early aggressive push from Dern and using her well-rounded skill set to avenge her previous loss to Dern.

Three legs: Gane vs. Aspinall ends inside distance + Nurmagomedov + Aspinall

Parlay odds: -152 (to win: $65.72)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 35 EVENTS

2025 winnings: +$193.91 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (73-65-2, +23.82 units)

Cage Lock: 28-6-1 (-$14.71)

Favourite: 19-16 (-$533.12)

Underdog: 17-17-1 (+$1,080.24)

Dart throw: 9-26 (+$1,850)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (73-63-4, -4.28 units)

Cage Lock: 30-5 (+$85.67)

Favourite: 21-13-1 (-$274.06)

Underdog: 19-15-1 (+$950.24)

Dart throw: 3-30-2 (-$1,190)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (56-80-4, -30.76 units)

Cage Lock: 24-11 (-$315.84)

Favourite: 18-17 (-$445.89)

Underdog: 13-20-2 (+$420)

Dart throw: 1-32-2 (-$2,735)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)