Trump’s ’Spear of the South’ sparks regional alarm as Venezuela braces for U.S. moves

Barely hours after U.S. President Donald Trump had signed the bill ending the longest government shutdown on Friday (November 14, 2025), his Secretary of War, Peter Hegseth, fired off a tweet, declaring a new military operation, “Spear of the South”, against “narco-terrorists in the Western hemisphere”. On Sunday (November 16, 2025), the Trump government went a step further as it announced that a Venezuelan criminal group would be classified as a terrorist organisation and that it views President Nicolas Maduro as “the head of that cartel”.

With Mr. Trump back in the White House on Sunday (November 16, 2025) after a weekend at Mar-a-Lago—and Washington still consumed by the uproar over the Epstein files—the decision is seen in the region as a major escalation for a possible strike on Venezuela. Tensions have been rising for weeks, forcing regional powers to state their positions. President Lula of Brazil, speaking at a meeting in Bogota on Sunday (November 16, 2025), pressed other leaders to confront the continued U.S. attacks on boats in the Caribbean. Colombian President Gustavo Petro was more direct as he described Mr. Trump as a leader “intent on intimidation” and called the U.S. military build-up “an unmistakable act of aggression against Latin America”.

In recent weeks, the U.S. has moved massive firepower into the Caribbean: more than 15,000 personnel, a dozen warships, the biggest aircraft carrier and a submarine; more than 10 F-35s have also been stationed at Puerto Rico. The political messaging has matched the military build-up. On Sunday (November 16, 2025), U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Mr. Maduro of enabling “terrorist violence” across the hemisphere.

‘Regime-change bid’

To local observers, the scale of the U.S. deployment — and their rhetoric — looks like the opening act of a regime-change operation in Venezuela. Diego Sequera, a Caracas-based analyst and co-founder of the research group Misión Verdad (Truth Mission), believes that Washington’s pressure aims to trigger an internal collapse in Venezuela. “The goal is to generate enough heat to force some kind of breakdown inside the government,” he says. “So far, the pressure has damaged the currency and added to economic strain, but it has not changed the political situation on the ground,” says Mr. Sequera.

If the U.S. wanted to scare Mr. Maduro into a negotiation process, it has not happened. Rafael Duarte Villa, a Venezuelan who teaches international relations at the University of São Paulo, says the pressure has only hardened the government’s posture. “Maduro has put his military forces on unprecedented alert. The government, feeling cornered and demonised, has mobilised not just the armed forces but also civilians, grassroots organisations and the militias,” says Mr. Villa. “The expectation that he would step down or flee—perhaps to Russia—is clearly not happening. His grip on power, for now, remains intact.”

Mr. Maduro is also backed by Venezuela’s formidable military. Armed with mostly Russian defence platforms, including Su-30 jets, T-72 tanks, S-300 and Buk missiles, Igla-S launchers, and Kalashnikov rifles, the military comprises more than 123,000 active troops, backed by almost 8,000 reservists and thousands of militias who support the government. Some estimates put the total number of soldiers at 300,000. Patricia Marins, a Rio de Janeiro-based defence analyst, says Venezuela fields the most capable military in South America. “No other country in the region has SAMs or anti-ship missiles comparable to Venezuela, but sanctions have left parts of the arsenal without maintenance,” says Ms. Marins. “Russia has shipped some spare parts in recent weeks, but it will be difficult to effectively resist a military attack given the U.S. build-up in the Caribbean.”

Washington’s goal

But observers believe Washington’s real goal may be less about defeating Venezuela militarily and more about reasserting U.S. power in the region. In recent months, the U.S. has repeatedly used the term “narco-terrorism” to pressure governments from Mexico to Colombia and even Brazil. Mr. Diego Sequera argues that the U.S. justification simply does not hold. “One thing is absolutely clear: this is not about fighting drug trafficking. That claim goes against every element of reality,” he says. For him, the ambiguity is intentional. “What began as a confrontation with Venezuela now touches the broader Caribbean, especially with Colombia drawn in and Trinidadian fishermen among those killed at sea,” says Mr. Sequera.

If anything, Washington’s posture marks a return of the Monroe Doctrine, now camouflaged in the language of “narco-terrorism” to contain the growing influence of emerging powers such as China and Russia in the hemisphere. Mr. Sequera argues that this is precisely why his country has become a target. “Venezuela is a key player for multipolarity. Its ties with Russia, China, Iran and others make it a symbolic and practical challenge to U.S. dominance,” says the Venezuelan analyst. “Washington’s goal is to reassert control over the entire hemisphere.”

Mr. Duarte Villa agrees that the current escalation could be part of a broader effort by Washington to reclaim a lost sphere of influence. “Under Trump, Latin America has returned to the centre of American strategic planning. The echoes of older doctrines are unmistakable. Even when officials now speak of the region as their “neighbourhood” rather than “backyard, the underlying intent is the same: to restore U.S. primacy in a hemisphere where America’s grip has visibly weakened,” says Mr. Duarte Villa says.

More theatre than strategy

Despite all the noise and thunder, this situation may be more theatre than strategy—a projection of force at a time when Trump is grappling with political storms in Washington. A full-scale invasion of Venezuela, says Mr. Duarte Villa, would carry risks the Americans cannot control: urban warfare in Caracas, civilian losses, the prospect of U.S. soldiers returning home dead, refugees going into neighbouring countries and a fierce regional backlash. “There could be significant numbers of casualties in a ground invasion of Venezuela. Such losses would demand answers from the administration at home, especially if the operation faltered. For that reason, a major military attack is unlikely,” says the professor.

In a region shaped by old doctrines and new challenges, even the threat of war seems to be a message in itself.

Published – November 17, 2025 10:14 pm IST