Trump Waters Down Colorado’s Population Trend – FactCheck.org

In criticizing Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and vetoing a bill that would fund a water project in the state, President Donald Trump has claimed that people are leaving the state “in droves,” but that’s not what the available data show.

Despite having supported the project during his first term, the president wrote in a memo to Congress that he nixed the bill because it “would continue the failed policies of the past by forcing Federal taxpayers to bear even more of the massive costs of a local water project.”

But he suggested in an interview with Politico that another contributing factor was his impression that the population of Colorado was declining. In social media posts criticizing Polis, Trump repeated the claim about people moving out of the state, once citing one moving company. Demographic data and figures from other moving companies contradict the claim.

This was one of only two bills the president vetoed during his first year of this term, and the legislation had passed the House and Senate by uncontroversial voice votes. Some Colorado political insiders and observers have speculated that the veto was political retribution against Rep. Lauren Boebert — a Trump ally who represents a Colorado district affected by the project and who diverged from the president when she demanded the release of files on Jeffrey Epstein — or against Polis — a Democrat who has sparred with Trump over the incarceration of Tina Peters, a former Mesa County clerk who was convicted of Colorado state charges of compromising election equipment to undermine the outcome of the 2020 election.

The House may vote on Jan. 8 on overriding the veto, which could be successful given the broad support for the bill.

The project it would fund — called the Arkansas Valley Conduit — would pipe reservoir water for 130 miles to about 50,000 people in an area that has naturally occurring radionuclides, including radium and uranium, in the groundwater. The AVC has a decades-long history as part of the extensive Fryingpan-Arkansas Project that brought water to users across the state after it was approved in 1962.

The cost of the AVC project so far has been over $500 million, and the total projected cost is $1.4 billion, according to an estimate based on 2023 prices from the Eastern Colorado Area Office of the federal Bureau of Reclamation, which is overseeing the project with the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District. That total is roughly twice as much as the 2016 estimate, according to the bureau.

“Despite estimated project cost increases, the cost of the pipeline remains comparable to construction costs of similar pipelines currently under construction by Reclamation,” the bureau said on its website.

Colorado’s Population

On Dec. 31, two days after Trump vetoed the bill, he told Politico, “They’re wasting a lot of money and people are leaving the state. They’re leaving the state in droves. Bad governor.” He also posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, “California and Colorado are two of the TOP OUTBOUND STATES IN 2025 (United Van Lines!) – In other words, PEOPLE LEAVING!!!” Later the same day, he said in a post that “people are leaving in record numbers.”

We asked the White House for clarification on the president’s reasoning for vetoing the bill and for evidence to support the claim that people are leaving Colorado “in droves.” We were directed to the president’s official explanation to Congress and got no response to the question about population shifts.

Based on Trump’s social media post, it appears that the claim comes from the annual roundup provided by the moving company United Van Lines. It reported making a total of 6,633 moves into and out of Colorado in 2025 — 2,986 were for people moving into the state and 3,647 were for people moving out of the state. That put Colorado — with 55% of its moving traffic leaving the state — among the “top outbound states for 2025.”

According to the report, the largest portion of those who left — about 31% — did so because of family obligations, and the second largest — about 23% — did so for a job.

But that’s not the only moving company that operates in Colorado, and, as NBC’s Denver affiliate, 9NEWS, noted, several other moving companies — including U-Haul, Atlas Van Lines, North American Moving Services and Allied Van Lines — reported either a slight influx, a slight outflow or neutral moving trends for the state in 2025.

Because Trump suggested that people are leaving Colorado “in droves” due to a “bad governor,” it’s also worth noting that Census data published by the website USAFacts show that since Polis took office in 2019, the moderate upward trend in the state’s population over the last decade has continued, although the data is only through 2022.

Similarly, data from the State Demography Office show comparable estimates and projections through 2025. The office estimated Colorado’s population was 5.7 million in 2019 and projected the figure grew to nearly 6 million for 2025.

We reached out to the office for more details, but didn’t receive a response. In July, however, Colorado State Demographer Kate Watkins told 9NEWS that “Colorado has, and is projected to continue to, grow faster than the rest of the United States.”

Political Retribution?

The president posted more about Polis on Dec. 31, writing in the afternoon on Truth Social: “God Bless Tina Peters, who is now, for two years out of nine, sitting in a Colorado Maximum Security Prison, at the age of 73, and sick, for the ‘crime’ of trying to stop the massive voter fraud that goes on in her State (where people are leaving in record numbers!).” He called Polis a “Scumbag” and the Republican district attorney who prosecuted Peters “disgusting,” adding, “May they rot in Hell. FREE TINA PETERS!” 

Peters, who took office as the Mesa County clerk and recorder in 2019, was convicted in state court in 2024 of several charges related to breaking into county election equipment in an attempt to prove that Trump had won the 2020 presidential election, despite the fact that former President Joe Biden won both the electoral college and the popular vote — garnering 81 million votes to Trump’s 74 million, nationally, and winning Colorado with about 55% of that state’s vote compared to Trump’s 42%.

She is serving a nine-year sentence in state custody.

On Dec. 11, Trump announced on Truth Social that he would grant her a “full Pardon for her attempts to expose Voter Fraud in the Rigged 2020 Presidential Election!”

He also signed an executive grant of clemency that is dated Dec. 5.

But the president’s pardon power extends only to federal charges. Peters was convicted of state charges.

“No President has jurisdiction over state law nor the power to pardon a person for state convictions,” Polis said on Dec. 11 on X. “This is a matter for the courts to decide, and we will abide by court orders.”

State leaders have suggested that the veto may be political retribution.

Boebert has also suggested that the president’s move may have been a reprisal for her support of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which Trump had referred to as a “hoax” and sought to discourage her from backing.

Editor’s note: FactCheck.org does not accept advertising. We rely on grants and individual donations from people like you. Please consider a donation. Credit card donations may be made through our “Donate” page. If you prefer to give by check, send to: FactCheck.org, Annenberg Public Policy Center, P.O. Box 58100, Philadelphia, PA 19102.