When does the unexpected become so regular it is expected?
The head-spinning twists emerge so frequently in US President Donald Trump’s Ukraine policy they have become mundane.
On Tuesday, Trump suggested Ukraine could reclaim all occupied land because of NATO arms supplies, their will to fight and Russia’s economic frailty. All this from a man who once said Ukraine should cede land to its invader and rolled out the red carpet for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
This would all be easy to tune out, were they not coming from the most important voice – in the West at least – when it comes to the largest European war since the 1940s.
What does Tuesday night’s 180-degree turn mean, even with the caveat that the world’s most powerful man may spin onwards to perform a full 360, and end up back where he was on Monday – lacking any traction in a peace process he instigated, but failing to punish the Kremlin for its behaviour.
Firstly, it is foolish to deny Trump’s newest, latest position is on the surface good news for Kyiv. It recognizes Ukrainians’ “spirit” for the fight and backs their most maximalist positions to retake all the territory occupied by Russia. It backs NATO arming them to the hilt, with US weapons. It emphasizes the “paper tiger” that Moscow clearly remains militarily, after three and a half years trying to take more than 20% of a country it thought it could swamp in a week.
But there the substantial and significant good news mostly ends.
Trump no longer wants the war to end now. He thinks it could go on until Ukraine retakes what it almost certainly cannot have. It is fair to say Kyiv privately would like the war to come to a just and lasting end tomorrow, given the acute manpower issues and slow territorial losses it has faced for months.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has gone from one impossible demand to another.
He is no longer being asked to make unpalatable concessions of land Ukraine has lost thousands in the defense of. Instead, he is now being goaded into the impossible retaking of land Ukraine could not get back in the summer of 2023, during a heavily prepped counter-offensive. Neither option is an easy deliverable that prolongs Zelensky’s position or leaves Ukraine strong.
Responding to Trump’s comments, the Kremlin said “even a low-skilled specialist” could see that Russian troops were making progress.
The main thrust of Trump’s argument is – as we have heard from his European allies – that Russia’s economy is in peril. Yes, constant strikes on Russia’s refinery infrastructure have caused possible shortages of gas, and another Ukrainian drone hit a Gazprom refinery for the second time in a week Tuesday night, 1,400 km (870 miles) inside Russia. There have been reports of queues at gas stations and wider issues. As with all closed societies, it is impossible to gauge how serious this is, and it may loom iceberg-like in the coming months to wreak real destruction or just melt away.
Relying on Russia’s economic frailty also leans on a different societal paradigm to where the Kremlin is at now.
In a pre-invasion world, high inflation, wage rises, a large pending demobilization crisis and the damage to the normal economy from sanctions, should weigh upon policymakers.
But this is Putin’s existential war. After it ends, he likely loses power or faces an impossible job of explaining and healing that even his autocracy will struggle with. He needs to present to the soldiers’ mothers and veterans of Russia a victory so conclusive they can be mollified in grief, or Putin must have conflict continue as long as his rule.
A nation that can endure about a million casualties can handle – or ignore – economic turbulence. Moscow can take the pain, and when it becomes too much, China, its key bankroller, will likely find a way to help.
But the US president’s Truth Social post’s bookends reveal as much as its lengthy interior.
Trump begins, after nine months of peace efforts, with an admission of earlier ignorance: “After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation” he believes Ukraine can win and Russia’s economy will stall.
Trump ends his post saying NATO can buy arms from the US and “NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all!”
Again, the president of NATO’s key member speaks of the alliance as a foreign body, and the war he has pledged to end as something others need good fortune in. It is a dizzying 280 words that capped a tumultuous day of US repositioning.
Buried around the long post were two other key, new stances.
Speaking alongside Zelensky at the UNGA, Trump said NATO countries should shoot down Russian jets in their airspace.
It is perhaps not too radical an idea, but in the current climate has the inflammatory imprint of American backing for this defensive measure.
His Secretary of State Marco Rubio had earlier said “I don’t think anyone said about shooting down Russian jets unless they’re attacking.” Trump later added: “Depends on the circumstance” when asked if he would join any defensive effort.
The messaging is tough and might persuade the Kremlin to calm its mad period of envelope-pushing, that saw Russian drones enter Poland and its jets violate Estonian airspace.
But the White House is not being completely clear and absolute. Putin will test this new resolve. Probably not tomorrow, or by again bluntly flying jets into NATO airspace, but in another way that forces the largest military alliance in history to parse and debate Moscow’s motivations.
Second, when asked if Trump still trusted the Russian leader – by now code for whether the long-telegraphed sanctions against Moscow for gaslighting his peace process might be put in place – Trump said: “I’ll let you know in about a month from now.”
Through all the noise, Putin still gets until November.
Trump’s new position still brings Ukraine back to the old. Zelensky knows he needs a miracle of funding, manpower and simultaneous Russian collapse to retake territory. It is unclear if Trump was parroting the most maximalist version of the Ukrainian president’s demands in his post or heard these ideas from a European ally at the UNGA in New York or concocted this new approach himself.
It does bring this White House startlingly in line with the most hawkish European position – that Ukraine can and will fight on indefinitely until Russia loses. That may feel unrealistic to most analysts. But is better than the alternative of admitting to an avaricious Moscow that Ukraine must accept some kind of defeat.
Yet with that win for Europe and Kyiv – laden with unattainable ambitions and “good luck” sign offs – comes the question of whether the sound and fury signifies anything.
Trump did not announce anything new – NATO will continue to buy what it was already going to buy and lean on the forlorn analysis that Russia’s beleaguered economy will see it come unstuck.
Trump has just vacillated hardest in Kyiv’s favour. But his policy remains a pendulum swinging between the worldviews of allies the US cannot live without, and someone he inexplicably likes and still trusts – Putin.
The Kremlin keenly analyzes Trump’s behaviour and has proven to be a good judge of how far they can stretch his patience.
They have likely noted he has made himself the very centre of the narrative of how this war for 21st century European security will play out, and that he enjoys this role. And they will note this position is, like the past eight deadlines he has set, new.
And that they have at least another month to wait and see if it changes back again.
egyptindependent.com (Article Sourced Website)
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