There used to be a rather catty parody line within the BBC about Sky News, an organisation that twenty years ago made its mission to be ‘first with the news’. It was “Sky News: not wrong for long”.
It alluded of course to the fact that in a bid to ‘break’ more stories than it’s monolithic rival it would quite regularly jump to conclusions, or make a wrong call on flimsy sourced initial info, and have to rapidly correct.
Those days are passed, and neither Sky News nor BBC News are what they were. If anything the BBC have just been criticised for not prioritising coverage of anti-regime riots in Iran. The BBC old guard suggest it is because not having access to Iran they cannot verify online claims and videos, but perhaps foolishly I contested on social media that they had not let limited access to Gaza stop them being wrong for too long on a number of early stories in that conflict.
This led to a falling out with former Times columnist David Aaronovitch, who it transpired seems greatly disappointed I’m a Tory, and accused me of making ConservativeHome too Conservative. No room for the ‘non-partisan’ journalist to read, apparently.
To borrow a line from early Steve Martin ‘well excuuuuse me’!
Also I, who openly declared – one by working for a Conservative government, and two by saying so in my first article for this site as Editor – am a Conservative. I’m not ashamed of it, and those of you who are also Conservatives shouldn’t be either. We can do better no doubt of it, and did I agree with everything the last Government did, or didn’t do? No of course not, but I remain a Conservative.
Journalists who feel the need to declare themselves ‘non-partisan’ raise my suspicions, and miss the one of the lessons the Tories have had to learn since July 2024 – don’t talk tough, be tough. Show, not tell. Hot air chills voters.
However in the wake of Donald Trump’s swoop in capturing – or kidnapping depending on your politics – of Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro, partisan or not, journalists, commentators, the Twitterati and politicos were all trying to match that old Sky News slogan. Be first. Risk being wrong. Then demand why others aren’t doing the same.
I’m really glad Kemi Badenoch and, unusually I’m going to be fair to him here, The Prime Minister, did not rush out a statement.
Kemi celebrated her – whatever it is I’m not counting – birthday two days ago on the back of another boost in her favourability ratings with the public. It’s an odd measure, as the brutal truth for all the party leaders is it’s a measure of the least unfavourable, but it is in the wider scheme of things like turning up the volume in the battle to be heard. A good thing for the party. But knowing when to be heard is just as important.
Whilst politicians waited to comment, trying to get decent information, the ‘get in first brigade’ revealed much of themselves. The harder left complained that Trump – who for them is wrong in all circumstances – had broken international law and used that for a rather obvious bewailing that a place they’d hailed 15 years ago as ‘socialism working’ was clearly not going to have a socialist future.
The more centrist left and right pointed to an international law breach as being a massive blow to the rules based order, which, whether we like it or not, seems to be a bit shutting stable doors after the horses bolted – some time ago. However the valid question was whether China and Russia will see this US intervention as a ‘oh so it’s ok for you guys, well then we’ll just crack on in Taiwan or Europe’
Ed Davey hated it, because Trump did it, which frankly was as predicable as the irony of Putin condemning it.
It’s not full throated backing of Trump’s intervention to point out Russia has been doing this sort of thing before Maduro came to power, and for that matter, before Trump. Xi Jinping has not invaded Taiwan because he fears a breach of international law, but because he knows there would be an enormous, not to say fatal cost to the Chinese economy within a gigantic blow to all of ours.
Policy for most ‘western’ governments on Taiwan is to recognise China wants it, will try to ensure it has it by 2049 (the centenary of Communism in China), and earlier if Xi can manage it, but to make all the arguments possible that force him look in a mirror each day and tell himself ‘not today, lads’
As it happens the US has form in Latin and Central America, removing pineapple faced Manuel Noriega in Panama in the same year the Chinese had Tiananmen Square erupt.
The US under Trump has declared their operation was to remove a drug king pin who just happened to be an illegitimate President, as J D Vance has said:
“you don’t get to avoid justice for drug trafficking in the United States because you live in a palace in Caracas”
However everybody including the Russians and Chinese know this is also about oil. Or even mainly about oil. The US wants it, Venezuela has an abundance of it, and Maduro liked sharing it with the wrong people. China will feel the loss of it more than most.
So as news broke, everyone did what they always do. They spoke with great authority about a situation that was still unfolding on the ground, made judgements on that situation and then, in short order, started asking where is the PM? Why is Badenoch so slow? Has Nigel come out yet?
They all did come out. Each set of party fans claimed each leaders statement the best, and yeah, I did think Kemi’s response was good, and the better for waiting, but all of them were caveated, even Farage’s – which is odd because his “probably a good thing” is not quite as decisive leadership his uber-fans tried to make out. Nonethless, I’m not criticising him here.
Actually I’m not out for any of them, because having worked up close in foreign affairs I know two things are true about politics and foreign affairs and much of the ‘be first with my news and hot takes’ crowd on social media don’t.
Unfolding situations abroad are not, just not, clear and simple within two, or twenty four hours of occurring. Jumping in feet first as a politician might beat everyone else to the statement, but you are more than likely to be wrong and for long.
Second, there are very few votes in foreign affairs.
FCDO has many systemic flaws, not least some of its deep seated world views, but it isn’t in any usual sense a ‘delivery department’. Leaders and foreign affairs teams just need to read things right for British interests, sometimes at odds with officials.
The public is rarely passionate when you do – satisfied is about the best you get – but they will absolutely punish you when you don’t. And rightly so. So you need to think about what you are doing not shoot from the hip.
So yes, I’m glad they didn’t wade in immediately. It’s a boorish habit of the chattering class to have a stopwatch running on political statements, or performatively crying out ‘why are they silent on this issue I feel strongly about?!’
The truth is the US operation to snatch Maduro – who really, really, won’t be missed by almost all Venezuelans was astonishing. Caracas is crackers. Guns, narco-gangs, militia and a big army still exist. Getting Maduro out of there is nothing short of amazing. But if that’s it, then Trump will have caused himself more problems than he’s solved.
He’s also got the problem that the Monroe doctrine v2.0 is all very well but unless he does facilitate a return to Venezuelan democracy that can survive on its own two feet, it will, for those who need it to, feel like ‘how was Putin’s special operation different?’
The only thing about Trumps interventions is the power of his unpredictability.
What we are seeing is he’ll go full bore in his own back yard, but less so outside it. Would he really come to the Iranian people’s aid if the ayatollahs look so shaky they might fall? He did drop bombs on their weapons programme. But the wizened and ill old fraud in charge in Tehran, would like nothing better than an attempt. US/foreign interference is the only card he can play that actually makes his populace think twice. They aren’t keen on outside meddling, however much they hate their masters.
So if you are desperate to hear the defining judgement of any party leader in twenty four hours on world affairs, I suspect it’s largely so you can enthusiastically condone or condemn the response for political purposes, and not much more.
Trump’s gamble, as Farage said, could ‘possibly be a good thing’, it’s neither stupid nor a surprise that the PM wants to ‘consult with the Americans and our allies’ and as Badenoch, rightly in my view, said ‘I am not going to rush to judgement or speculate on incomplete reports’
Because you want the truth? (I’m so tempted to do the Jack Nicholson line here but I won’t) we don’t know how this is going to pan out. It’s possible, even likely Trump, his team, the Russians the Chinese, the EU don’t know how this pans out.
I hate to say it but we will have to wait and see.
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