The Union’s Best Argument: Why Winning the Middle Ground is the Key to the Next 100 Years

Alex Easton is the independent unionist MP for North Down. Here he argues that for unionism the only viable path forward is to start taking the middle ground in Northern Irish society a lot more seriously than they have at any point up to now. 

Several years ago I did my first and only ever piece on Slugger on the benefits of being in the Union, a lot has changed since that piece with brexit, the constant noise being made by those calling for a Border Poll and indeed polling suggesting the gap between those supporting the Union and those wanting a United Ireland closing.

Being passionate about the Union I still stand by my reasoning that we are better off in the Union and why I believe things are shifting back to pre Brexit levels of support for staying in the Union, so with this in mind I have done a rehash of my assertion we are better off in the Union and that a United Ireland is not inevitable as some would have you believe.

Historically, Northern Ireland has been considered to have two different groups of peoples; however, there has been an obvious shift away from this perspective. No longer do we speak of Unionists and Nationalists, but of Unionists, Nationalists, and ‘others’.

Changing identities and the importance of the middle ground

Northern Ireland is no longer defined solely by a two-way divide between Unionist and Nationalist. A significant and growing number of people now identify as neither. This group increasingly determines the outcome of major constitutional questions.

The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey (2024) shows this clearly, with a substantial proportion of respondents identifying as neither Unionist nor Nationalist, alongside those who identify as Unionist or Nationalist in the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey – Political Identity Question (2024).

This shift matters because the “neither” group tends to approach constitutional questions pragmatically, weighing economic security, public services and stability over ideology. On that basis, remaining in the United Kingdom continues to command greater support.

What the latest polling shows

Recent independent polling consistently shows that, if a border poll were held today, those of us who support remaining in the United Kingdom would prevail.

The University of Liverpool’s Institute of Irish Studies has published its December 2025 Northern Ireland Attitudinal Survey, based on 1,534 NI electors (fieldwork 1–14 November 2025, margin of error ±2.5%). University of Liverpool

On the constitutional question, the survey reports that among those who express an opinion, 59.4% would vote to remain in the UK, compared with 40.6% who would vote to leave. When those who are undecided/don’t know are included, 47.3% wish to remain in the UK, compared with 33.2% who wish to leave.

No matter what your political persuasion may be, it’s evident from these figures that remaining in the UK has a certain appeal to the middle ground that the United Ireland argument has thus far failed to penetrate. This is without a concerted campaign by unionists to promote the union as of yet, and, a lot of this thinking, I believe, is down to economics.

Taken together, these polls show a consistent pattern: support for the Union remains ahead, particularly among those who do not identify strongly with either traditional bloc.

Perhaps the most obvious area in which remaining in the Union holds the advantage is that of healthcare. Over half of voters are discouraged from voting for a United Ireland based on the differences in our healthcare systems. Whilst a certain number of people qualify for free healthcare in the Republic of Ireland, the majority do not.

Without free healthcare, citizens of the Republic can be charged around €50 to see a GP, €100 to visit A&E and over €140 a month for prescription drugs. Spending ten days in hospital could see you spend over €800. Therefore, over 40% of Irish citizens have private health insurance, which costs, on average, just under €2,000 per person.

This is the highest percentage take-up of private insurance anywhere in Europe, and average emergency room waiting times are also the highest in Europe. The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the widespread support in Northern Ireland for the NHS.

This support extends beyond mere economics, into feelings of pride, for both the institution and the workers within it. Sinn Fein plans to create an NHS in a United Ireland do not go down well with Irish citizens. Only a third are willing to vote for unification if it means higher taxes, and a border poll must be won in the Republic of Ireland too.

There are differences in our other emergency services too. Northern Ireland has 337 police officers per 100,000 of the population. The Republic of Ireland, with just 291 officers per 100,000 citizens, has one of the smallest police forces in Europe.

 Fire services are chargeable in the Republic of Ireland, with individuals billed anywhere between €0-750 for calling 999, depending on where they live. Home insurance does not always cover these costs and the system has been labeled confusing, unfair and unsafe by insurers.

When looking at the average cost of buying a new home in the Republic of Ireland According to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the average cost of a home in the Republic of Ireland now stands at €345,000 equal to £299,373. While in Northern Ireland new accredited official statistics published by NISRA statisticians in Land and Property Services, indicate that the average price for a house in Northern Ireland is £193,247 this is a staggering £100,000 cheaper than in the Republic of Ireland, if Unification was to happen many people in Northern Ireland would simply not be able afford to get on the property market.

The financial support that we receive from the British government is more than we would receive as part of a United Ireland. Not only do we receive the block grant, totaling £18.2 billion in 2025-26, but we are also in receipt of various other financial packages.

Overall, Northern Ireland has the most funding per head of the population of any other region of the United Kingdom. In terms of employment, the public sector would take a significant hit in the event of unification and it currently employs over 25% of our total workforce. Redundancies would likely be widespread and costly.

The UK treasury spends over £7bn annually on welfare payments in Northern Ireland. It’s also important not to forget the basics. The question we must ask ourselves is where is the Republic of Irelands Government going to find the £18.2 billion block grant money and the £7 billion benefits payments totally a staggering £25.2 Billion the Republic of Irelands would have to find a year to pay for reunifications.

Recent Findings from the Dublin-based Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) take into account the current level of funding Northern Ireland receives from the UK government, has estimated that the reunification of Ireland would cost around €20 billion a year for two decades https://www.iiea.com/blog/northern-ireland-subvention-possible-unification-effects According to the IIEA, the resulting spend would be equivalent to 10% of Ireland’s Gross National Income, 40% of which is currently spent on public services.

“This is a huge sum as total government expenditure in Ireland currently amounts to around 40% of GNI,” the researchers write.

“This would add a quarter to public expenditure in Ireland, while producing a very limited increase in revenue. To deal with the resulting deficit, which under the most favorable circumstances would persist for many years after unification, there would have to be a dramatic increase in taxation and/or a major reduction in expenditure.” If we think the EU or the UK will want to help to pay for this then think again.

The UK is the sixth largest economy in the world. Ireland currently sits at number twenty-fourth.  In terms of further financial benefits, there is no better example than that of Covid-19. Firstly, due to our position in the Union, we have benefitted from the UK-wide schemes to assist in retaining jobs and supporting the self-employed, to name but two.

We can pick flaws in the Covid-19 schemes, which are not perfect, and we can find individuals who do not qualify for the packages of government support. However, I think that people have lost sight of the big picture and how fortunate we are globally.

The IMF singled out the United Kingdom to praise the government for their extensive response, highlighting its generosity and its speed when compared with the rest of the world. Not only have we benefitted from these schemes, but the Treasury provided the NI Executive with several billion pounds specifically to assist in measures to tackle the virus and provide support to those in need. The Covid-19 response in the Republic of Ireland was not as substantial as that which we received through our membership of the Union.

The Republic of Ireland State debt means they owe about €40,500 per person in the Republic of  Ireland, according to a new report from the Department of Finance on public debt, a figure that it notes is high relative to other advanced economies. The debt of €218 billion equates to 68 per cent of gross national income, a measure of economic activity that strips out the distorting effect of the multinational sector.

 Would the people of the Republic of Ireland really want to see this rise if Unification was to happen and would the population of Northern Ireland want unification with this level of debt, I would argue no.

These are only a few of the financial benefits of remaining in the Union. It would be difficult to list, or fully explore all of the ways in which we benefit financially from being a part of the United Kingdom in such a short piece. Still, these are some of the key financial arguments that I have no doubt will be fought out during a border poll campaign.

As a committed unionist, I find them convincing. I think many ‘others’ and many moderate nationalists will do too. The polling certainly suggests that, as it stands, this is the case. However, we can never and must never be complacent in our assumptions, beliefs, and position within the United Kingdom.

Unionists definitely need to do more to sell the Union. In my view, whilst I don’t want a border poll because I believe it will be destabilizing I however do not fear one either. I am realistic enough to know this is out of my hands, and, to secure my desired result, I believe that selling the benefits of the Union should have started long ago.

Perhaps the greatest threat to the Union is Unionism itself, the constant infighting and Unionists attacking each other, this is not a good look and there is nothing more off putting for the voters that spits and divisions, imagine if Unionism got its act together and was united and actually sold the benefits of the Union and reached out beyond its base to sell the Union.

I would suggest that polling would be even stronger in support of the Union than is currently the position.

Northern Ireland is now in existence for over a hundred years and that presents Unionism with a unique opportunity to promote the benefits of our position within the United Kingdom and kick-start what should be a positive and ongoing campaign.

I am, however, optimistic about the place from which we start and believe that we will be part of the Union for another 100 years.

This is a guest slot to give a platform for new writers either as a one off, or a prelude to becoming part of the regular Slugger team.