The Golden Bull Runs On

The Golden Bull Runs On: Why XAUUSD Could Break $4,300 in Q1 2026

Hello, fellow traders!

Gold has truly shined in 2025. The precious metal closed out the year spectacularly, securing its position above the psychological $4,200 per ounce mark. This relentless upward march has been fueled primarily by the market’s conviction that the Federal Reserve is embarking on a rate-cutting cycle, combined with persistent signs of weakness in the broader US economy.

As we look toward the first quarter of 2026, the question is: Is this trend exhausted, or is it just catching its breath?

Today, we analyze the drivers keeping the gold bull market alive and forecast the key levels for Q1 2026.

The Context: A “Healthy Correction” in a Strong Trend

Despite the lofty heights, analysts remain bullish on the medium-term outlook.

Ewa Manthey, an analyst at ING, notes that the pullbacks observed back in November were merely “healthy corrections” and do not alter the underlying upward trend. The structural drivers—specifically robust demand from central banks and gold’s enduring appeal as a safe haven—remain firmly in place.

ING projects that after averaging around $4,000 in Q4 2025, the average price will climb to $4,100 per ounce in Q1 2026.

The Catalysts for Q1 2026

The fundamental backdrop for Gold remains highly constructive heading into the new year, driven by two main engines:

1. Monetary Policy (The Fed Pivot)

There is a high probability of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in early 2026. As interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold decreases, making it more attractive to investors seeking a store of value against a potentially weakening dollar.

2. Geopolitical Risks (The Safe Haven Bid)

The global stage remains fraught with tension. Situations in Venezuela, ongoing sanctions affecting Russian oil flow, and political uncertainty within the US itself all contribute to a climate of risk. In such environments, demand for protection drives capital toward the ultimate safe haven: Gold.

Forecast Summary: Consolidation or Breakout?

Based on the current environment of falling interest rates and controlled inflation, the base case for Q1 2026 is a consolidation at high levels.

• Base Case: We expect Gold to consolidate primarily between $4,100 and $4,300 per ounce as the market digests Fed actions.

• Bullish Scenario: If economic data indicates a more severe slowdown than currently anticipated, panic buying could easily propel the metal beyond the $4,300 barrier into uncharted territory.

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Happy Holidays and Safe Trading,

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