Thai Business Daily Report: August 29, 2025 Edition – Thailand Business News

Welcome to the Thai Business Daily Report, your comprehensive daily roundup of the latest developments in Thailand’s economy, markets, business sectors, and global influences. As of August 29, 2025, Thailand’s economy continues to navigate a complex landscape marked by geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and domestic recovery efforts. Drawing from key sources like the Bank of Thailand (BOT), World Bank, and major business outlets, this report highlights critical updates, forecasts, and sector-specific insights. Our focus today includes economic projections, border-related trade disruptions, tourism and export trends, and emerging opportunities in innovation.

1. Economic Overview and Projections

Thailand’s economy is projected to expand by 2.3% in 2025, up slightly from recent estimates but tempered by external headwinds such as U.S. tariffs and moderating private consumption. This forecast from the BOT reflects stronger-than-expected Q1 performance driven by electronics exports and front-loaded shipments to the U.S., but growth is expected to slow in the second half due to weakening income levels and consumer confidence. Tourism receipts remain a bright spot, expanding despite a downward revision in visitor numbers, thanks to higher per-visitor spending.

• Key Drivers: Private consumption is moderating in line with economic pressures, while merchandise exports face challenges from global trade barriers. The World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor (February 2025 edition) emphasizes the need for innovation among SMEs to boost productivity, projecting growth acceleration to 2.9% in 2025 if fiscal stimuli like the Digital Wallet program continue effectively.
• Inflation and Fiscal Outlook: Inflation is forecasted at 0.8%, below the BOT’s target, supported by stable domestic demand. Public debt remains sustainable, but rising spending on aging-related services and infrastructure investments poses challenges. The Ministry of Finance aims to accelerate 2025 budget disbursements to 80% for investments, potentially adding 0.11% to GDP.
• Risks: Prolonged U.S.-China trade tensions and domestic border issues with Cambodia could shave off growth. On the upside, improved investment sentiment could lift 2025 GDP to 2.2% and 2026 to 1.8%, per World Bank analysis.

For context, Thailand’s 2024 growth was 2.5%, surpassing expectations due to fiscal handouts like the THB 10,000 cash transfer, which offset slower tourism recovery. Poverty declined to 8.2% last year, with inequality improving by 1.5 Gini points.

2. Trade and Border Tensions: Impact on Businesses

A major story dominating headlines is the escalating Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, which has direct repercussions for cross-border trade and tourism. Recent landmine incidents have injured Thai soldiers, with the Royal Thai Army accusing Cambodia of ceasefire violations. This has led to:

• Commerce Ministry Measures: Four support initiatives for affected businesses, farmers, and citizens, including aid for disrupted supply chains. Experts warn that prolonged tensions could devastate bilateral trade (valued at billions annually) and regional tourism.
• Export Redirects: Cambodia’s halt on refined oil imports from Thailand (nearly 6 million liters daily) is unlikely to severely impact Thai firms, as excess supply can be rerouted to other Asian markets like Vietnam. Overall exports are projected to grow 4.4% in 2025, aligning with global recovery.
• U.S. Tariff Threat: With an August 1 deadline looming for 36% tariffs, Thailand faces pressure in negotiations. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira is optimistic about a positive U.S. response, tying trade talks to the Cambodia ceasefire. Thai businesses, especially in manufacturing, are bracing for impacts, with the sector contracting for the first time in 20 months per S&P Global’s August PMI (48.9).

Businesses in logistics and energy are adapting by diversifying markets, but SMEs report heightened costs from shipping and wages.

3. Tourism and Hospitality Sector Update

Tourism, contributing ~11.5% to pre-pandemic GDP, is rebounding but faces hurdles:

• Visitor Forecast: Expected to reach 38.5 million foreign tourists in 2025, generating THB 1.83 trillion in revenue—close to 2019 records. Monthly arrivals hit 2.5 million in August, on track for the government’s 39 million annual target.
• Challenges: Border tensions and monsoon-related hazards (e.g., jellyfish warnings on beaches) are dampening sentiment. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is promoting safety via campaigns. Hoteliers protest the new 400 baht daily minimum wage hike, calling it a “death sentence” for provincial small businesses amid 50% revenue drops in restaurants.
• Positive Notes: Higher spending per visitor is boosting receipts. Events like the Amazing Muay Thai World Festival and Thailand Showcase 2025 in London are drawing crowds.

4. Market Snapshot

• Stock Market (SET Index): Closed at 1,248.17 on August 28, up 0.14%, with SET50 at 817.27 (+0.26%). Materials sector leads with expected 32% annual earnings growth, while Utilities lags at -19%.
• Currency: Baht averaged 34.8-35.4/USD in 2024; projected 32.7-33.1 in 2025. Current account surplus at $13 billion (2.4% of GDP) signals stability.
• Business Registrations: First half of 2025 saw 6,244 closures due to slowdowns, per Department of Business Development.

5. Sector Highlights and Innovations

• Manufacturing and Tech: Electronics upcycle supports growth, but import flooding pressures local firms. AI adoption in media and business is high (95% journalist acceptance), with Vero’s survey highlighting opportunities in journalism and e-commerce.
• SMEs and Startups: Represent 99.5% of firms and 35.3% of GDP; World Bank urges better financing, skills training, and R&D to address barriers. Thailand elevated to “Partner Country” at Gamescom 2025 for gaming innovation.
• Debt Relief and Labor: “You Fight, We Help” initiative expands to millions; 10,000 Sri Lankan workers recruited to fill shortages. Life insurance premiums rose 7.38% in H1 2025.
• Corporate Moves: Thai Beverage’s management reshuffle; Carabao Group’s beer market entry; One Bangkok megaproject launch with Isetan Mitsukoshi.

Outlook and Recommendations

While 2025 holds promise with 3-3.5% growth potential through fiscal acceleration and tourism, businesses must prioritize diversification amid trade risks. Policymakers should focus on SME innovation, sustainable practices, and resolving border issues to unlock competitiveness. For deeper dives, refer to BOT’s Thai Economy report or World Bank’s TEM series.

This report is for informational purposes; consult professionals for investment advice.