Stephen Goss: One third of the Ulster Unionist Party have served as leader, now they need another one | Conservative Home

Dr Stephen Goss is a freelance historian, lectures in history and politics in London, and is a Conservative councillor in Reading.

Last year Mike Nesbitt MLA, Minister of Health and Leader of the Ulster Unionist Party announced he was considering stepping down as head of his party. He promised to reveal his decision in the New Year. True to his word, he has decided to resign the leadership. Again.

Mike took on the leadership in 2024 having previously led the Ulster Unionists between 2012 and 2017. The party is now looking for a new leader little more than 16 months later. It has had five leaders in the past ten years. One-third of the Ulster Unionist Assembly Group has served as Party Leader.

That figure alone should give pause for thought.

Leadership in the Ulster Unionist Party has become something of a shared burden, passed around among a shrinking group of MLAs in the hope that the next holder might finally reverse the party’s decline in fortunes. Each leadership change has been framed as a fresh start. Leaders arrive with goodwill, speak of renewal, and depart before they have had time to embed either authority or a new direction.

There is also a pattern in who those leaders are. In recent years the Ulster Unionists have shown a marked tendency to elevate figures who arrive at Stormont with limited political experience but impressive service records. Commander Steve Aiken OBE (Leader, 2019-21) served in the Royal Navy for more than three decades. During his naval career, Aiken commanded a nuclear-powered submarine and served aboard nuclear-armed vessels. In addition to his OBE, he holds an MPhil and PhD in International Relations from the University of Cambridge, with additional qualifications from King’s College, London.

Major Doug Beattie MC (Leader, 2021-4) spent over 30 years in the Army, serving in multiple operational theatres including Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He even guarded Rudolf Hess. Beattie rose through the ranks to become an officer. During the intense fighting in Helmand Province, he was awarded the Military Cross for gallantry (the United Kingdom’s third-highest military honour). After retiring from regular service, Beattie became a highly acclaimed author, writing books drawing on his military experience. In a society still shaped by conflict, such distinguished service carries symbolic weight: seriousness, discipline, and a form of moral capital that resonates with large parts of the unionist electorate.

There are two likely contenders for the leadership this time: Deputy Leader Robbie Butler and MLA Jon Burrows (who, so far, is the only person to announce he is standing). Burrows fits the pattern: he spent 22 years with the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) in senior leadership roles including Head of the Discipline Branch. Since retiring he has become a prominent commentator on policing matters. He has been an MLA for five months.

Repeatedly parachuting newly elected or co-opted MLAs into the leadership suggests a party searching for credibility through biography rather than through political argument. It also places unrealistic expectations on individuals who have not yet had the opportunity to build deep roots with voters, activists, or even colleagues. When those expectations are inevitably disappointed, the problem is diagnosed as personal failure rather than structural weakness – and the cycle begins again.

This matters because the Ulster Unionists have had opportunities in recent years that should have favoured a moderate unionist alternative. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), through incompetence, obduracy, and myopia has turned Unionism’s strongest electoral position in decades into its weakest. Despite a persistent message of ‘vote DUP to stop Sinn Féin’, their ineptitude has allowed Sinn Féin to become the largest party in the Assembly and brought a republican First Minster. Trust in the DUP has crumbled. Yet the Ulster Unionists have not been the principal beneficiary of that discontent. Instead, a significant portion of soft unionist voters have drifted towards Alliance, while others have opted for the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), or disengaged altogether.

One of the core challenges facing the Ulster Unionists in their search for a new leader is the question of what the party actually stands for in the 2020s. Unionism, as a political force, can no longer define itself solely by opposition to Irish nationalism. Unionism must be re-imagined in ways that go beyond its historical legacy and offer a positive argument and vision for remaining part of the United Kingdom. If the Ulster Unionists continue to rely on the symbolism of service in Crown forces as shorthand for credibility, they may well be missing the opportunity to offer a compelling vision of Northern Ireland’s future that resonates with younger voters or those disillusioned by the stale and dated image of unionism today.

Each leader over the last decade has laid out a vision for change, giving the electorate hope and choice, reform of the Party and hope for voters, modernisation of the Party and a progressive and unifying agenda, and continued progressive outreach and inclusivity. To their credit, the leaders have followed through on their promises. They have stopped the rot within the party, steadied the ship, prevented further decline, and overseen Ulster Unionists returning to the green benches in Parliament. They – frequently at the cost of internal support – have been able to impose a degree of order and coherence, even if none has been able to turn that into sweeping electoral recovery.

The Ulster Unionist Party has not had a contested election for the leadership for 14 years. Burrows has – rightly – called for one this time. Both potential leaders approached Diana Armstrong (the sole female Ulster Unionist MLA) to stand with them for the Deputy position. She has opted for Burrows, but this should not deter Butler from standing. A contest, properly conducted, would force the party to confront crucial questions. What is the Ulster Unionist Party for? Who is it trying to represent? And how does it intend to grow rather than merely survive? These go to the heart of why the party has struggled to convert moments of unionist disillusionment into electoral recovery, and why its successes have so often been defensive rather than expansive.

As disillusionment with the DUP continues and the Alliance surge begins to ebb, the Ulster Unionists need to convince the electorate they are a serious alternative and have a distinct offer: taking devolution seriously; stability, competence, and credibility; a confident, reforming unionism that makes a positive case for the Union. The party’s recent leaders have shown that internal discipline and coherence can be restored. What they have not been given is time. Constant leadership churn signals uncertainty to voters and fragility to opponents. A new leader will need space to fail, to learn, and to adapt.

The next leader will inherit a party that is stable, but still searching for a purpose that resonates beyond its core vote. If there is a contest rather than another coronation, it could mark the beginning of a new chapter for the Ulster Unionist Party. If not, then the pattern of the past decade will repeat itself: another capable individual taking on the leadership and eventually stepping aside having discovered that authority alone is not enough. Nominations close on 15^th January; if Butler does not submit his name, it might be easier if the nine remaining Ulster Unionist MLAs just take it in turns to lead the Party.