‘Sentimental Value’, ‘The Secret Agent’ And ‘It Was Just An Accident’ Lead The International Oscar Race

Just before lockdown struck in 2020, the Best International Feature Film category was about to break wide open, with South Korea’s surprise Best Picture winner Parasite bringing director Bong Joon Ho a near-unprecedented haul of four statuettes, from six nominations. The film’s success was across the board; apart from the main prize and the inevitable Best International win, there were noms for directing, screenplay, editing and production design. All the signs seemed to suggest that the world was about to become a much smaller, friendlier place and that the language barriers would be coming down.

Instead, the spread of Covid-19 dealt a killer blow to production everywhere, and in its aftermath some of the old prejudices crept back in, a situation not exactly helped by an increasingly isolationist mood that seemed to spread to every country around the world. This year, however, there’s a possibility that the International category is finding its feet again, and there’s no better example of this than Brazil’s entry The Secret Agent. The story of a teacher forced underground by the country’s military dictatorship in 1977, Kleber Mendonça Filho’s genre-mashing thriller follows hard on the heels of last year’s winner, I’m Still Here, directed by Walter Salles and starring Fernanda Torres. In Cannes, Filho’s film won him the Best Director award, plus Best Actor for his star Wagner Moura, leading some to speculate that The Secret Agent could also migrate into other categories.

The same might be said of Norway’s Sentimental Value. The story of an arthouse film director trying to reconnect with his estranged daughter, Joachim Trier’s film could finally see some Oscar love for Stellan Skarsgård, who plays the talented but thoughtless father, and Renate Reinsve, as his daughter, a brilliant but troubled actress. Elle Fanning could also generate buzz for her part as an American starlet who inadvertently finds herself caught in their crossfire, while the script — co-written by Trier and his regular collaborator Eskil Vogt offers the kind of crisp emotion that voters often go for.

As luck would have it, even with his best-received film to date, Trier finds himself back in the situation he was in with his 2021 film The Worst Person in the World. A natural Best International winner in any other year, that film was stymied at every turn by Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car. History seems set to repeat itself in the form of Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, a satirical Iranian drama about a former political prisoner who, after trying to live a quiet life, encounters a man he thinks tortured him in jail. Panahi’s only attempt so far at the International category, with 1995’s The White Balloon, was scuppered when the Iranian government forced him to withdraw it. This time, France is backing him and it could pay off. More significantly, since Cannes, Panahi has been given a year-long jail sentence by the Iranian authorities — his punishment for making anti-government “propaganda” — and the director has vowed to return home to serve every day of it. That, plus his recent wins at the Gotham awards (for director, screenplay and international film) bodes well for the Oscars.

Another film that seems a likely lock for the shortlist is Tunisia’s submission, The Voice of Hind Rajab. Directed by Kaouther Ben Hania, the film recreates the last hours of a little girl caught up in the war in Gaza, using recordings of her actual voice while actors play out the circumstances that conspired to prevent aid workers from getting to her in time. The film was a huge hit with critics at the Venice film festival, receiving a 23-minute ovation, but, mysteriously, lost out to Jim Jarmusch’s sedate Father Mother Sister Brother come the prize-giving, settling for the runner-up Grand Jury Prize. It’s possible that Ben Hania’s film might be too political, or just too raw, for the Academy, and there’s a chance that the slew of celebrity execs attached (including Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Rooney Mara, Alfonso Cuarón and Jonathan Glazer) could do more harm than good.

Those four films seem pretty safe bets to make the cut, but the battle for fifth place is going to be interesting. One would think that Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice would be a good bet, having won TIFF’s inaugural International People’s Choice Award, but the South Korean stalwart has always had trouble cracking the American market. Indeed, No Other Choice was meant to be his second English-language movie after Stoker (2013), until the financing collapsed. Starring 2016 Academy inductee Lee Byung-hun as a paper-mill worker who turns to murder to get his job back, it’s a socially conscious black comedy that some feel is a little too much like Bong’s breakout hit to go the distance. However, Park is a big name, and there’s a slim chance that voters will be taken by its normally deadpan star, who gives an untypically broad, comedic performance.

But the shortlist is by no means a done deal, and, once again, this year’s Cannes Film Festival proved to be fertile ground for contenders across all the sections. From the Competition come three significant contenders, and the most obvious might seem to Belgium’s selection, Young Mothers, by Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardenne. But although the double Palme d’Or winners are arthouse darlings, Oscars have largely eluded them, except for 2014, when French actress Marion Cotillard was nominated for Two Days, One Night. Cotillard’s star power was a rarity for the Dardennes, however, and Young Mothers, about five women in a housing shelter, sees them returning to more familiar territory, using a cast of non-professionals and unknowns.

If Cannes voters were looking to make a statement, two other European Competition entries stand out. Put forward by Germany, Mascha Schilinski’s hypnotic Sound of Falling, the impressionistic study of four generations of women in a rural small town, could impress more adventurous voters, and the same is true of Oliver Laxe’s Sirāt. A genuine sleeper hit with solid word-of-mouth behind it, this story of a man infiltrating an underground rave tribe in a near-future dystopia is a risk that could pay off for Spain, especially if voters get to experience its terrific sound design in cinemas. The Philippines, though, might be guilty of wishful thinking with their choice of Lav Diaz’s Cannes Premiere Magellan, a 160-minute biopic (short by Diaz’s usual standards) of a 16th-century Portuguese explorer starring Mexico’s Gael García Bernal.

But the International category isn’t necessarily a showcase for style and technique; sometimes it’s a question of relatable world-building. Launched during Critics’ Week on the Croisette, Shih-Ching Tsou’s Left-Handed Girl was quickly snapped up by Netflix, perhaps encouraged by the participation of this year’s Oscar winner Sean Baker as co-writer and editor. A female-fronted drama about a mother and her two daughters who set up a stall in a Taipei night market, it features a scene-stealing performance from child actress Nina Ye, whose natural charm is the film’s secret weapon.

Given the amount of noise in the International category, voters will undoubtedly want a bit of guidance. Just like having Sean Baker’s imprimatur, the seal of approval from Martin Scorsese might steer many to India’s entry, Homebound by Neeraj Ghaywan, which tells the story of two small town friends with dreams of joining the police force. The film also bears the laurels of Un Certain Regard, as does Colombia’s selection, A Poet, which won the sidebar’s Jury Prize. Directed by Simón Mesa Soto, this tragicomic tale of a washed-up artist trying to mentor a teenage girl has been ubiquitous on the festival circuit.

Similarly well-traveled is Petra Volpe’s Late Shift, which may break a dry spell for Switzerland. Premiering at the Berlinale, this low-key but high-pressure story of a nurse on the edge received some very good reviews, largely praising the performance of its breakout star Leonie Benesch. The real underdog story this year, however, is The President’s Cake; set in 1990, it tells the picaresque story of a 9-year-old girl forced to bake a gift for Saddam Hussein in honor of the dictator’s birthday. Not only did the film score rave reviews from its first appearance in Directors’ Fortnight, but Hasan Hadi’s debut may yet also the first Iraqi film to be nominated since 2005. For that reason alone, the stars might yet align for it in what’s currently looking like a wide-open year.