Sanjoy Sen: The Conservatives have pledged to ditch the 2030 ban on petrol vehicles – so what next? | Conservative Home

Sanjoy Sen is a chemical engineer. He contested Alyn and Deeside in the 2019 general election.

Politicians are finally embracing some reality in their quest for cleaner transport. The EU is relaxing its de facto combustion engine ban. And the Conservatives have pledged to ditch the UK’s more ambitious (i.e. even more unrealistic) 2030 Zero Emission Vehicle mandate.

This response is long overdue. European motor manufacturers face an existentialist crisis with Chinese brands on the rise. And the public still isn’t warming to electric vehicles. Even the very nature of future transport is uncertain.

How did we end up here?

The 1997 Kyoto protocol was a turning point. With the EU committing to cut greenhouse emissions by 8 per cent, it signed a voluntary agreement with the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Car CO₂ emissions were to reduce by a quarter within a decade.

European manufacturers lobbied hard for diesel. Diesel cars were already popular on the continent and their lower fuel consumption translated into lower CO₂ emissions. (Although not by much, it transpired). With the EU offering up lower taxation and more lenient emissions standards, by 2011 over half of new car sales were diesel.

But VW and others were heading down a cul-de-sac.

Diesel engines chucked out more pollutants (particulates, nitrous oxides) than petrol equivalents. British and European urban air quality was suffering at the expense of global greenhouse targets. And with emissions legislation tightening, the only way out was to cheat. Manufacturers have paid out billions in Dieselgate compensation.

Meanwhile, over in Japan, Toyota launched their first Prius hybrid in 1997. And in 2003, Elon Musk started work on the Tesla EVs that would soon up-end the market. Most ominously, China began rolling out a generational strategy which might ultimately see it wipe out its global competitors. In a country where oil reserves are low but power generation is high (still mostly from coal), EVs make strategic sense. And strong domestic demand has proven a springboard for a concerted export drive.

In the nineties, Chinese car production was comparable to the UK’s. International players (VW, GM-Buick) initially made a killing but their hosts were learning fast. From some shameless copies a decade ago, today’s Chinese EVs are cheaper and more advanced than the competition. Key to their dominance is control of the entire value chain from battery metal extraction to complex vehicle software, a level of integration Western competitors can’t match.

Panicked into protecting its own manufacturers, the EU rolled out a 35 per cent tariff (on top of the existing 10 per cent) on Chinese EVs. This just had the unintentional outcome of the Chinese pivoting towards pushing super-cheap non-EVs: 2025 sales almost doubled. The UK may soon have to follow suit on tariffs to avoid becoming a dumping ground.

Right now, European auto makers struggle to make a non-blinding headlight. But all needn’t be lost. Renault have unveiled a range of small EVs which cash in on the retro charm of its back catalogue. And VW are teaming up with American newcomer Rivian to deliver vastly improved EVs. Here in the UK, a relaxation of emissions targets helps our premium brands. Tariffs buy industry time – but that time needs to be used wisely.

So, what might we do next?

We might start with a reality check on EVs.

Whilst EVs now account for a quarter of UK new car sales, figures are skewed by the fleet market. Benefit-in-kind tax bands heavily incentivise EVs. (By contrast, when the public spends its own money, Europe’s favourite brand is the ultra-cheap, fossil-burning Dacia.) Although prices are falling and battery ranges increasing, EVs are commonly a second or third vehicle in affluent households where a diesel SUV covers the long-distance runs.

Even if EV take-up does increase, further challenges await. Fuel duty receipts are falling, prompting the new pay-per-mile charge. And with electricity prices soaring and the UK unable to meet its current needs (16 per cent of our power was imported in 2025), something has to give. Not to mention the grid upgrades and, as Henry Hill observed, the charging infrastructure.

In the dash for EVs, the plug-in hybrid has been largely overlooked: with the right incentives, this might finally be its moment. With the average British commute under 30 miles, their small batteries can take care of daily distances. And the ‘range extender’ petrol engine can step in for longer trips – or when a charger can’t be found. Crucially, if folks experience tangible benefits from plugging in (lower costs, smoother driving) not just eco-smugness, they may be more inclined to consider a ‘pure’ EV sometime in the future.

But the 2030 ban goes much further than motoring. It speaks of disconnected metropolitan decision-making with little thought to how people live. From my own campaigning experience, I’ve seen pro-EV measures play out much better in leafy Hampstead than in red wall Derbyshire. Reform’s disdain for Low Emission Zones, Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and basically anything Net Zero resonates with many. A recalibration of these will be key to any Conservative turnaround.

And, what of the future?

In 2021, Transport Secretary Trudy Harrison declared car ownership ’20^th-century thinking’ and extolled the virtues of shared mobility. Needless to say, that didn’t go down too well. Beyond urban centres, most Britons lack viable public transport options ensuring they remain solidly car-dependent.

Pushing electric cars before they were ready was an error. But it’s also a mistake to assume things will stay the same. After a century of folks buying cars, fuelling up and driving themselves around, attitudes and technology are shifting. Already, we’re seeing fewer young people learning to drive. And whilst car ownership remains an aspiration for many, they are also receptive to alternatives such as pay-as-you-go Mobility as a Service (MaaS).

Increasing levels of autonomy are creeping into cars, from adaptive cruise-control to lane-assist functions. Clearly, it’ll be a while before the fully self-driving car (classified as Level 5) is everywhere. But Level 4 robo-taxis already operate in controlled environments and the enabling AI technology is rapidly evolving. The ramifications of the Automated Vehicles Act 2024 and upcoming trials could be significant: if vehicles can drive themselves, will everyone still want to own one? And what becomes of today’s driving jobs, from Deliveroo pizza mopeds to mini-cabs to trans-continental HGVs?

We need a reality check on our current trajectory. But let’s also recognise that transport in a generation might look very different. Next time you hear “I’m never buying an EV” or “you won’t catch me driving one of those plug-in things”, you might be listening to an enlightened futurist, not a frustrated Luddite.