Punters becoming less convinced of another CON majority – politicalbetting.com


Smarkets Exchange

The above betting market is one we are going to see a lot more of in the next couple of years – what will be the outcome of the next UK general election.

This is one that is generally most influenced by the voting intention polls of which in the past week we have had YouGov with a 10% CON lead with Opinium on 4% and DeltaPoll on just 1%. Interestingly the key player at Deltapoll is Jow Twyman who for years was a senior figure at YouGov.

The latest Redfield poll out this afternoon has a 3% CON lead which suggests that YouGov is the outlier.

In assessing general election outcomes we need to remember that the Tories had a GB vote lead at GE2019 of 11.8% so anything less than that represents a swing to LAB.

Of course, there could be a long way to go and anything could happen. In the meantime, punters are more reluctant to risk their money on a CON overall majority.

Mike Smithson



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