PM Wong: As the US steps back globally, “we must brace ourselves for more turbulence ahead”

“The old rules no longer apply, and the new ones haven’t been written.”

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told the Financial Times in an interview yesterday (Oct 23) that the world is entering a multipolar era marked by geopolitical tension, economic uncertainty, and shifting global trade patterns.

For Singapore—a small but strategically located city-state—the stakes are high: it must act decisively to secure its economic future, maintain relevance, and prepare citizens to thrive in a rapidly changing world.

The “post-American order”

Wong described the current global landscape as a transition away from unipolar American dominance toward a more fragmented, multipolar world.

“We are certainly in the midst of a great transition to a multipolar world—a post-American order and a multipolar world,” he said.

He emphasised that this shift is not temporary but reflects structural changes in global politics and economics. While the US remains a major power, Wong noted that its ability—and sometimes willingness—to shape global initiatives is no longer guaranteed.

No one can tell how the transition will unfold but there is no doubt it will be messy and unpredictable, because America is stepping back from its role as global insurer.

Currently, there are no countries that can replace America’s role in the global system. Although China’s influence is growing, its domestic challenges and middle-income status mean it remains a significant but not dominant global player. This leaves Singapore—and the world at large—in a messy period of transition, with no clear global leader emerging.

As the US retrenches, countries are taking on more responsibility for their own security and economic resilience. Wong warned that this could weaken the global order, stating that there is “no going back” once this happens.

Stability in a multipolar world

And in a multipolar world, stability cannot be assumed.

It could give rise to spheres of influence, exclusionary blocs, and fragmented alliances, making cooperation more complex. Yet, Wong expressed cautious optimism, noting that multipolarity can still foster new connections and collaboration.

He has ambitions to see ASEAN become a more credible bloc, both politically and economically. To this end, there are plans to accelerate ASEAN integration, creating a “more attractive and competitive single market.”

Wong also noted that, in some ways, US tariffs have catalysed this effort, motivating ASEAN leaders to come together with greater urgency on this endeavour. All ASEAN countries were initially slapped with high tariffs, but since America remains the largest investor in the region, extensive negotiations have helped many countries secure slightly lower tariffs.

Singapore, on the other hand, got off pretty lightly. Since the US does not run a trade deficit in goods or services with Singapore, only the baseline tariff of 10% applies. There has also been significant front-loading of activities, which has dampened the immediate impact. Combined with technological advancements such as AI, the broader economy has shown resilience.

That said, Wong acknowledged that there will be an impact. “We are already starting to feel it in our own economy,” he said. “In many ways, the Singapore economy is like the canary in the coal mine, because we are so open and exposed to the external environment, we are often the first to feel external weakness.” 

The first half of this year was relatively smooth, however, Singapore started to see “some slowdown” approaching the second half. Due to uncertainty, businesses are also holding back on new investments and hiring.

Certain sectors, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, remain under pressure. With negotiations still ongoing with the US, the full impact remains to be seen.

Navigating the tensions between the US and China

Apart from the tariffs, Wong highlighted that tensions between the US and China could further disrupt the global economy. “It is the most consequential relationship in the world, and also the most dangerous fault line in international relations,” he said.

For now, both countries are trying to insulate themselves from each other, yet their economies are deeply intertwined. When one economy applies pressure, the other responds, creating a dynamic of mutually assured disruption. We are already seeing this today.

As both countries weaponise dependencies, Wong noted that this only pushes each side to seek alternatives, develop workarounds and become more self-reliant—and if a full decoupling happens, it would be “highly damaging and destabilising.”

When asked if a trade deal might emerge soon, he remained hopeful, though it may not resolve everything. “Even some form of a guardrail to manage trade relations is better than nothing,” he said.

If the US and China can continue to coexist, Singapore and other ASEAN countries will be better able to navigate the new environment and maintain relations with both powers.

What will Singapore do?

Wong foresees that the current “unpredictable, messy period of transition” could last for years, possibly even more than a decade. In this environment, Singapore aims to work with like-minded countries and reinforce multilateral frameworks that matter, ensuring stability and predictability in global trade and governance.

Efforts will be multi-pronged. Singapore is focused on reinvigorating existing institutions such as the WTO, updating mechanisms, such as consensus decision-making, that have become inefficient, and exploring plurilateral approaches to accelerate progress.

While the city-state is pursuing these initiatives with like-minded countries, it is not discounting the role of the US; even if America is not ready to act immediately, maintaining momentum is crucial.

Alongside this, the city-state is leading pathfinding initiatives with smaller, trade-dependent economies, such as the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership.

These initiatives aim to uphold a rules-based trading system while experimenting with innovations like standardising regulations, facilitating investment flows, and leveraging technology for smoother cross-border business operations. Over time, such initiatives could be multilateralised under the WTO framework, reinforcing global trade norms.

On investments, Singapore remains actively engaged globally, including in the US, Europe, and Asia. While macroeconomic risks have increased—particularly in the US—the city-state continues to back companies with strong growth potential and technological dynamism.

Europe, in particular, is viewed as a key strategic partner in the emerging multipolar order. Singapore is exploring ways to link trade groupings such as the CPTPP (the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) with the EU and deepen EU-ASEAN cooperation, covering significant portions of global trade. These moves aim to keep global trade arteries open and create new ones, countering the increasing fragmentation of the international system.

Domestically, Wong emphasised that global uncertainty and the rising anxieties of young people are closely linked. Across the world, from China to Europe, youth are expressing unease about their futures.

In Singapore, the government is focused on assuring the next generation, providing them with confidence and opportunities to chart their own paths in a world that is less stable and more chaotic than in previous decades. Political and social policies are being shaped to support this objective, recognising that internal resilience is as crucial as external strategy in navigating the new global order.

We are in an uncomfortable position… and we must brace ourselves for more turbulence ahead… I think we cannot afford to just wait for things to happen or hope somehow that things magically will fall in place. We have to take actions now.

• Watch Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s full interview with the Financial Times here.

Featured Image Credit: Prime Minister’s Office