Owen Webster: Is Robert Jenrick the real leader of the opposition? | Conservative Home

Owen Webster is a Trainee Solicitor in conveyancing and a Conservative Party activist from the West Midlands.

When Kemi Badenoch narrowly won the Conservative Party leadership in the autumn of 2024, her victory came with a built-in warning sign.

Much like Liz Truss after the 2022 Leadership Election, she failed to secure over 60 per cent of the membership vote. That left her with a mandate too weak to silence rivals and too soft to reassure both her own MPs and the grassroots – especially in a year where we are expected to see hundreds of losses in today’s Local Elections.

Six months into her leadership, the problems have not just persisted, they’ve deepened. Rather than establishing herself as the clear and credible Leader of the Opposition, Badenoch has struggled to cut through, while others in the party, particularly Robert Jenrick, have stepped up, spoken out, and started to look far more like the real opposition.

He has challenged the government, ensured that his voice, and that of the Conservative Party are heard. Increasingly, it’s Robert Jenrick who increasingly appears to be doing the job Badenoch was elected for.

From the outset, Badenoch had three clear tasks: to unite the party, challenge a government riddled with self-inflicted wounds, and keep her leadership rivals in check. So far, she has failed on all three fronts. Instead of rallying the party behind a compelling vision, her early months have been defined by indecision, muted performances, and a sense of drift. Her appearances at PMQs have often fallen flat. They have often lacked the precision and political force that’s needed from a leader in opposition. Badenoch has often grabbed headlines which portray a negative image of her performance at PMQ’s, and rightly so, because her performance has been very low grade for a Leader of the Opposition.

And while the Government has presented easy targets, from the politically toxic autumn budget to a spring emergency budget that solved nothing, Badenoch has struggled to land significant blows. She’s failed to capitalise on widespread public dissatisfaction with government policies, even when polling has shown a clear appetite for criticism.

She isn’t leading the opposition, she’s just occupying the seat. Badenoch hasn’t seized the moment, others have.

Robert Jenrick has quietly, and now more loudly, stepped into the spotlight. His campaign against the Sentencing Council’s two-tier justice guidance was not only principled but strategically shrewd. It tapped into widespread public anger, showcased Conservative values such as equality before the law, and ultimately forced the Government to threaten emergency legislation should the Sentencing Council adopt this guidance.

It was a decisive win. But more importantly, it wasn’t Badenoch’s win, it was Jenrick’s. And Tory members took notice.

The most recent ConservativeHome polling of party members puts Jenrick’s net approval rating at +71.3, which is staggeringly high by any measure. Badenoch, meanwhile, is down to +9. For a leader still in her first year, that is a dramatic fall and showcases how her current leadership of the party is going. And it’s not as if Jenrick is riding a sudden wave of popularity. His numbers have been consistently strong. What’s changed is the sense among members that Badenoch’s leadership is failing to deliver.

One could argue that Badenoch tried to co-opt Jenrick by using the classic “keep your enemies close” tactic by giving him a role in her shadow team. If that was the intention, it’s clearly backfired. Rather than muting his influence, or forcing him to stay quiet for the sake of party unity or undermining the leadership, it has amplified his voice. His platform is now stronger, his message clearer, and his authority, in the eyes of many, stronger than the leader’s. And it’s not just ConHome polling that reflects this shift. A recent YouGov survey found broad public support for Jenrick’s stance on justice reform, a sign that his appeal goes beyond the party faithful. He’s speaking not only to the base but to the country, positioning himself as a credible national leader at a time when Badenoch is struggling to assert herself as an effective opposition figure.

The mood among Conservative members is beginning to sour.

What once felt like cautious optimism about Badenoch’s leadership is being replaced by frustration and regret. The party expected a fighter and someone who could articulate Conservative principles clearly, go toe-to-toe with a Labour government, and revive the party’s electoral chances. Instead, they’ve received silence at crucial moments, inconsistent messaging, and a leader who feels oddly absent from some of the biggest debates. When someone like Jenrick steps into that silence, fills the vacuum, and demonstrates what a Conservative voice sounds like in opposition, it’s no wonder members begin to imagine what things would look like if the roles were reversed. A figure in the party who gives many members and grassroots politicians some hope for the party going forward.

There is, of course, no immediate sign of a leadership challenge. Badenoch remains in post, and Jenrick has made no public move. But the groundwork is being laid, Jenrick is becoming more vocal, more visible, and is becoming increasingly popular in numbers among the electorate. Increasingly, he’s being talked about as not just a rival, but as the Conservative leader in waiting. The one who didn’t win the leadership contest but might yet win the leadership war.

In a moment of political volatility, narrative is everything. And the narrative that’s forming within the Conservative Party is not flattering to Badenoch. She won the title. But she hasn’t claimed the role. If she wants to hold onto it, that needs to change, and fast. She must start leading with clarity, confronting the government directly, and presenting a Conservative vision that’s not just reactionary, but compelling. That involves presenting an ambitious plan that activist can sell on the ground, apologising for the mess the party got into when in government – dragging the country down with it, and apologising for backtracking on many issues that were important for voters.

Robert Jenrick may not be the official Leader of the Opposition. But speak to Conservative members, activists, and even some MPs, and it’s clear: he’s increasingly the one they’re following. And in politics, sometimes perception is reality. The party is watching and so is the country.