Noah Arazi: A Conservative deal with Reform would be a short-term fix with long-term consequences | Conservative Home

Noah Arazi is a Policy Fellow at the Pinsker Centre, a campus-based think tank that facilitates discussions on international affairs and free speech

Over the past few weeks, rumours of a deal between Reform UK and the Conservatives have intensified markedly. With reports that Reform donors had been told by Nigel Farage that he expects to strike an agreement with the Tories, it appears Farage is beginning to accept that Reform have reached their polling ceiling, and that without Conservative support they may struggle to take on a potential coalition of left-leaning parties. Meanwhile, the Conservatives continue to face defection after defection. A recent ConservativeHome poll found that seven in ten party members believe a deal with Reform is likely before the next General Election and party chair, Kevin Holinrake, has even said he would agree to a Reform coalition if there was no other choice.

It is, admittedly, easy to see why CCHQ might find such an option tempting. It offers an immediate solution to the haemorrhaging of MPs, appeases the party’s right-leaning grassroots, and could, in theory, deliver a right-wing bloc capable of pushing Labour out of government. But any deal with Reform, even a limited electoral pact, would be a short-term fix with long-term consequences. There are several reasons why such an arrangement could ultimately prove disastrous for the Conservatives.

Reason 1: Farage will call the shots

Despite the Conservatives currently having more than twenty times as many MPs as Reform, it has been obvious from the outset that any agreement would be struck on Farage’s terms. He has long operated with an overtly presidential leadership style, and Reform has been built around his personality and preferences. The party’s impressive polling numbers only strengthen his hand, giving him the leverage to insist that any pact must work to Reform’s advantage.

If an electoral deal were signed, it is entirely plausible that large numbers of sitting Conservative MPs would be expected to stand aside in favour of new Reform candidates. This is unlikely to be well received by the parliamentary party. By entering such an arrangement, the Conservatives would not simply be compromising; they would be surrendering substantial control of their own future to a leader who relishes operating unrestrained.

Reason 2: The political and ideological gaps are profound

Reform is not merely a more right-leaning version of the Conservatives; it is a fundamentally different political creature. The Conservative Party is the oldest and most successful political party in British history. Its ideological positions have shifted over time, but its roots in Conservative political thought remain deep and have continually been invoked by successive leaders.

Reform, by contrast, is a relatively new party forged out of political frustration and protest. Farage himself has shifted political homes repeatedly: beginning as a Conservative, then founding UKIP, then leaving to form the Brexit Party, and finally rebranding into Reform UK. It is difficult to identify a single coherent ideological thread uniting the party. Unlike the Conservatives, who maintain a historical philosophical foundation, Reform operates with little in the way of ideological ballast.

Comparing the policies of the two party’s also reveals fundamental disagreements. Take Reform’s approach to constitutional reform as an example. In their “Contract with the People,” Reform pledge to “replace the crony filled House of Lords” as well as introducing proportional representation for elections to the House of Commons. These are just two of Reform’s remarkably radical proposals that stand in complete contrast with the deep pessimism that exists amongst the Conservative ranks towards constitutional reform.

Looking at economic policies also reveals a significant divergence between the two parties. When British Steel was on the verge of shutting down earlier this year, Farage called nationalisation of the steel industry the “only option” for saving the “strategic asset.”

Another interesting point in Reform’s “Contract with the People” is that taxpayer-funded organisations should source 75 per cent of their food from the UK. These measures all point towards a party fuelled by economic protectionism – this significantly differs from the Conservatives who have long advocated for neo-liberal economic policies. Kemi Badenoch herself is a former Secretary of State for International Trade, who championed a vision for a “Global Britain.”

Reform and the Conservatives are no two ideological bedfellows – they come from different ideological traditions and are ultimately appealing to two very different types of voters.

 Reason 3: There’s still a long way to go until the next election

 Harold Wilson’s famous maxim that “a week is a long time in politics” certainly holds true to the current state of affairs in the UK’s polls. 2025 has been a dramatic year for British politics. In the same way that nobody could have foreseen Labour’s dramatic fall in the polls, Reform’s rise came out of the blue. The state of the current polls does not point to overwhelming support for one particular political party, instead it displays a volatile public mood that can be easily swung by events. Whilst it may be possible to make forecasts for the popular vote in the next election, how this will pan out in the UK’s first past the post electoral system is going to be incredibly difficult to predict.

It is going to be a particularly tough task for Farage to maintain momentum for the next three years. Reform have already encountered their fair share of controversies since their launch, and the latest polling is already pointing towards a slight dip in support for Reform. Meanwhile, Badenoch has had a particularly strong final couple of months of the year with talk of a “Badenoch bounce” in the polls even on the cards.

It is thus hardly surprising that she has so far played down the prospect of an agreement with Reform. Such a move would risk undermining both her personal ambitions and the wider fortunes of the Conservative Party. Any pact between the Tories and Reform would be deeply uncomfortable: Nigel Farage would almost certainly dominate the relationship, the two parties remain divided on key issues, and there is still a long road ahead before the next general election.

A Conservative deal with Reform would be a short term fix with long term consequences.