NFL Week 16 Preview: Bears look for revenge against depleted Packers

Just two weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers outlasted the Chicago Bears in a pivotal divisional clash and took control of the NFC North.

But as the teams get set for the rematch on Saturday night, much has changed.

Not only are the Bears back atop the division at 10-4, but the Packers team they are going to face on Sunday will look much different than the one they lost to in Week 14.

With first place in the division on the line once again, Green Bay will begin life without star pass rusher Micah Parsons, who is out for the season with a torn ACL he suffered last Sunday.

But Parsons is also far from the only key player the Packers could be without on Saturday.

Wide receiver Christian Watson, safety Evan Williams and right tackle Zach Tom were all injured in last week’s loss to the Denver Broncos, while running back Josh Jacobs reinjured his knee. All four players are questionable to play on Saturday.

However, the banged-up Packers aren’t ready to concede the division just yet.

“Just understanding what’s in front of us, understanding that we’ve still got the pen in our hand,” said Packers defensive end Rashan Gary, one of the players who will have to step up in the absence of Parsons. “We can still write our story.”

But the Bears have their own story to write. Not only are they looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020, but Chicago also has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Moving one step closer to both those goals by beating a fierce rival, well, that would only be icing on the cake.

Here are the other key storylines to keep an eye on in Week 16:

Patriots look to rebound against Ravens

Up 21-0 against the Buffalo Bills last weekend, the New England Patriots looked well on their way to making quite a statement to the rest of the AFC.

But after a second-half collapse that ended as a 35-31 loss, the Patriots come into Sunday night’s primetime matchup against the Baltimore Ravens with something to prove.

While they still control their destiny in the AFC East, last week’s deflating loss to the Bills is the first real adversity that the Patriots and second-year QB Drake Maye have faced this season.

Aided by the easiest strength of schedule in the league this season, many have questioned New England’s legitimacy as a real contender in the AFC.

The Patriots have a real chance to quiet all the naysayers against a desperate Ravens team this Sunday, and show that last Sunday’s loss to the Bills was just a blip on the radar.

It’s been a disappointing season for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who started the season as a Super Bowl favourite but enter Week 16 with just a 38 per cent chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN analytics.

But at 7-7, Baltimore is just one game back of the Pittsburgh Steelers for first in the AFC North.

A win would go a long way for the Ravens, but the same could be said for the Patriots. And only one can prevail under the primetime lights.

Yes, someone has to win the NFC South

It’s been a long week for both the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers laid an egg against the Atlanta Falcons last week that caused head coach Todd Bowles to go on an expletive-filled rant after the loss.

Then, with a chance to take full control of the NFC South, the Panthers suffered an even more disappointing loss to the then 3-10 New Orleans Saints.

The good news? Both clubs still control their own destiny to win the division and host a playoff game on wild-card weekend.

That’s because the two divisional foes will meet twice over the final three weeks, with the first on Sunday in Carolina.

The Bucs are in a better spot, as they currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker since they have a better winning percentage against common opponents.

Which means if the two teams split the final two meetings and end up with the same record, it will be Tampa Bay that ends up on top.

That makes Sunday’s home game for the Panthers a virtual must-win if they want to have any hope at making it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

Otherwise, it will be the Buccaneers atop the division for a fifth straight season.

Lions host Steelers with little margin for error

Thanks to the strength of the NFC, the Detroit Lions currently find themselves on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.

The 8-6 Lions come into Sunday’s game against the 8-6 Steelers with a 36 per cent chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN analytics. That number would jump to 47 per cent with a win, but would fall to 16 per cent with a loss.

Safe to say, Detroit is treating this like a must-win.

Unfortunately for the Lions, that means doing something they haven’t done since 1998. In the 21st century, Detroit is 0-5-1 against the Steelers.

Sunday would be a fortuitous time to snap that trend, but there is plenty on the line for the Steelers as well.

With the Ravens right on their heels, a win over the Lions would boost Pittsburgh’s chances of making the playoffs to 80 per cent.

History is certainly on the Steelers’ side, but you know Dan Campbell will make sure the Lions don’t go down without a fight.

Game to watch: Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) @ Denver Broncos (12-2) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

While not a game that many would have circled at the beginning of the season, Sunday’s game between the Jaguars and Broncos has turned into a heavyweight clash.

It’s also between two teams that are on impressive winning streaks.

Denver has won its last 11 games and is fresh off an impressive win against the Packers last week. The Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the coveted first-round bye that comes along with it.

Over in Jacksonville, quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career and has the Jags riding a five-game win streak of their own.

Lawrence accounted for six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) in last week’s win over the New York Jets.

But that was the Jets. Denver’s vaunted defence brings a much different challenge for Lawrence, and one worth keeping an eye on before we label the Jaguars as true Super Bowl contenders.

Forrest’s favourites (Season record: 21-18 — All odds courtesy of BetMGM):

Packers @ Bears — Pick: Bears -1.5: With the Packers down their most important defensive player, and the Bears at home, take Chicago in the rematch.

Falcons @ Cardinals — Pick: Falcons -3: The Falcons showed some life in their win over the Bucs last week, while the Cardinals are trending in the opposite direction. Ride with Atlanta.

Patriots @ Ravens — Pick: Patriots +3: The Patriots will be motivated to bounce back from their collapse against the Bills and have proved to be the better team all season long. Plus, they get some points!

Full Week 16 schedule (all times ET)

Thursday, Dec. 18
Seattle 38, LA Rams 37 (OT)

Saturday, Dec. 20
Philadelphia at Washington, 4:30 p.m.
Green Bay at Chicago, 8 p.m.

Sunday, Dec. 21
Kansas City at Tennessee, 1 p.m.
NY Jets at New Orleans, 1 p.m.
New England at Baltimore, 1 p.m.
Buffalo at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1 p.m.
Minnesota at NY Giants, 1 p.m.
LA Chargers at Dallas, 1 p.m.
Atlanta at Arizona, 4:05 p.m.
Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Detroit, 4:25 p.m.
Las Vegas at Houston, 4:25 p.m.
Cincinnati at Miami, 8:20 p.m.

Monday, Dec. 22
San Francisco at Indianapolis, 8:15 p.m.