Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is finally here, and there are ample storylines to monitor for not only future football odds analysis but the drama of it all.
From the Dallas Cowboys trading Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers, to Aaron Rodgers returning to MetLife Stadium as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy making his NFL regular-season debut, there’s a lot to keep an eye on.
Below, I’ll provide my predictions for each game on the slate, using NFL odds from the BetMGM online sportsbook.
While I could see the Cowboys’ offence perform well enough for a backdoor cover, I worry about how one-dimensional the offence could be without a solid running game.
The Cowboys running backs are two aging, inefficient players in Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue, who has a sprained ankle.
The Eagles win big at home on opening night.
The matchup I’ll be watching for in this game is the right side of the Chargers’ offensive line against Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones.
With the Chargers losing Rashawn Slater to a torn patellar tendon earlier this offseason, I have concerns for the right side of the offensive line.
Additionally, the Chiefs’ cornerbacks, headlined by Trent McDuffie, will be able to handle the Chargers’ outside receivers, which feature a recently concussed Quentin Johnston and an aging Keenan Allen.
The Chiefs are in a good spot to win and cover.
This is a tough game to predict, but I’ll go with the home team.
While Colts QB Daniel Jones is far from the best in the league, he provides more stability, even from something as simple as a completion percentage, than Anthony Richardson.
That stability will help the running game and RB Jonathan Taylor.
Thus, the Colts win a close one at home.
Aaron Rodgers is returning to MetLife Stadium to face the Jets, the team he played for the last two seasons.
While I question his offensive line somewhat, it’s a young unit that could take a massive step forward this season.
Outside of that, I trust the Steelers’ pass rush and defence to chase down former Steelers QB Justin Fields and make things difficult in the passing game as they can zero in on wide receiver Garrett Wilson.
To add to that, the Jets will be without guard Alijah Vera-Tucker for the foreseeable future, which doesn’t help.
This will be another close game, but the Steelers get it done.
The Jaguars are in the headlines with their new offensive guru head coach, Liam Coen and two-way star Travis Hunter, but the Panthers and QB Bryce Young have shown a lot of promise at the end of last season.
Young also has a new weapon at his disposal, rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan.
I also trust the Panthers’ running game more with Chuba Hubbard than a mish-mash likely led by the inefficient Travis Etienne.
PICK: Panthers +3.5 (-115)
While I’m certainly not expecting a playoff push for the Saints or even a win in this game, 6.5 points, in a dome, at home, in Week 1 is too many points.
This is the healthiest the Saints will be all season, so we’ll see Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks, and Alvin Kamara.
Now, how many of them will be on the field by Week 8? That remains to be seen, but the Saints can keep this within six in Week 1 with Kellen Moore as their new head coach.
The Giants’ pass rush will be something to watch in this game with Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Abdul Carter, but I trust this Commanders offence so much more than the Giants.
Sure, Russell Wilson brings that strong veteran leadership, but at the end of the day, he has to work with the weapons around him.
Malik Nabers will see plenty of targets, but I’m concerned with Wilson behind this Giants offensive line.
Between the Commanders’ superior offence and my lack of faith in the Giants’ offensive line, the Commanders win big at home.
PICK: Commanders -6 (-110)
At home, I’ll lean toward the Falcons.
The team looked good toward the end of last season with him at the helm, especially RB Bijan Robinson.
Over the three games, Michael Penix was the starting QB, Robinson averaged 22.3 carries for 118 yards (5.3 yards per carry), and two touchdowns per game.
Additionally, the Buccaneers are dealing with injuries to WRs Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin.
PICK: Falcons +2.5 (-110)
The Browns have been the talk of the town due to the QB controversy, but we now know it’s Joe Flacco behind center.
While I don’t expect him to last too long this season, I believe he can take advantage of this horrendous Bengals defence.
Not only that, but the Bengals have struggled in the opening weeks of the last few seasons.
The Bengals win the game, but the Browns can air it out enough to David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, and Jerry Jeudy to keep it within five.
While the Patriots have a new coaching staff, I believe they have the better QB in this matchup with Drake Maye.
The team has been built up around him, and it’ll be enough, especially with the new offensive linemen such as Will Campbell, Jared Wilson, Garrett Bradbury, and Morgan Moses. Additionally, he has great weapons at his disposal in rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson and WR Stefon Diggs.
The Patriots win and cover at home.
PICK: Patriots -2.5 (-118)
The 49ers have more continuity on their team heading into this game with the coaching staff, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle.
The Seahawks should be intriguing with a healthy Kenneth Walker III, Sam Darnold, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as their new WR1, but it could take some time for them to gel.
The 49ers get it done on the road.
This is a lot of points, but we have a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall against a defence led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, cornerback Patrick Surtain.
They also drafted another cornerback in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft in Jahdae Barron.
The game could get ugly quickly.
This is a tough first matchup for Titans rookie signal-caller Cam Ward.
The Packers have Parsons. That’s a crazy sentence to write.
While he’s dealing with some back issues, the adjustment should be a bit more straightforward, especially if they mainly use him to rush the passer as he adapts to the defence.
The Lions have a new offensive coordinator, and the Packers have one of the best defensive players in football.
Not only that, but Green Bay has a great running game and a new first-round rookie WR, Matthew Golden.
The Packers will win at home and cover.
PICK: Packers -2.5 (-110)
This Rams pass rush against the Texans’ offensive line is going to be terrifying.
I’m worried about Rams QB Matthew Stafford’s back for sure, but Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Byron Young, Poona Ford, and others getting after Texans QB C.J. Stroud is something I can’t get out of my head.
On top of that, the Texans are without RB Joe Mixon.
The Rams could finish with quite a few sacks.
This offseason, Buffalo added defensive reinforcements, more receiving help, and signed RB James Cook to an extension.
I’ll back the home team in what will be the best game of the week.
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is making his first NFL regular-season start after missing the entire 2024 season with a knee injury.
Still, I like the Vikings on the road.
I trust Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell completely. He’s been able to work with any QB to put themselves in a winning position.
For the Bears, it’s head coach Ben Johnson’s first game, and I think the Bears’ offence could struggle as they adjust while dealing with what’s typically an aggressive defence from Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
PICK: Vikings -1.5 (-110)
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