Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus groups “He changes his mind left, right and centre. He never sticks to one thing” | Conservative Home

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

My latest focus groups took place in two constituencies in the west country: North East Somerset and Hanham, where we heard from 2024 Conservative switchers to Labour and Reform, and Taunton, where we spoke to Tories who went to the Liberal Democrats.

“It feels a little bit like Reform is becoming the Tory Party mark two”

The groups took place before Robert Jenrick’s defection, but many had picked up on the curtain-raiser in the shape of Nadhim Zahawi. Participants tended to see such manoeuvres as a reflection of the defector’s calculation of his own interests, rather than anything to do with principle or conviction: “I think they’re dangling the carrot because they haven’t got enough front-line experience;” “At least Rees-Mogg is like, he’s a Tory and he’ll stay a Tory, whereas other MPs seem to be like, wherever the money is.” Whether the new arrival adds to the standing of his new party depends on the circumstances: “It could give them a bit more credibility. It depends what they’ve been kicked out for.” Some Reform voters were doubtful: “I’m getting a bit concerned that Conservative members of parliament are now coming over. I don’t want it to get too watered down. I really want to know why he has come over. Is he trying to get a job?” “It’s like bees round a honey pot. It’s the shiny new party. The Tories are down in the polls, so let’s go this new lot. It feels a little bit like Reform is becoming the Tory Party mark two.”

“There doesn’t seem to be any will to take on the money makers. Nobody has done anything”

The issue at the top of many participants’ minds was that of Grok, deepfakes and social media regulation (“this bloody scares me”). The groups overwhelmingly thought social media was too lightly regulated: “I watched a thing on BBC News about glasses which can record people. I think there needs to be a lot more safety in place;” “There needs to be more regulation. They need to clamp down on it. The ones that are doing stuff that is a bit shady, those are the people who are going to kick up a fuss. I’m not for limiting free speech, but I think the government has been too slow.” People tended to see this as a separate issue from censoring opinion and free speech: “If you’re undressing people online and infringing their privacy, that’s an issue. If you’re just expressing an opinion that people disagree with, that’s fine, as long as you’re not inciting hatred and such.”

Several spontaneously and approvingly mentioned Australia’s ban on social media for under-16s: “I love the idea of what Australia has done. I’ve got an eight and a ten year-old, and I would love them to grow up that way for as long as possible;” “I feel like my teenagers have hit the sweet spot of social media existing and regulation not having caught up. They’ve had exposure for the last five years with no regulation whatsoever. They recognise it’s a negative influence on them, but they can’t leave because everyone else is on it. Hopefully the next generation won’t suffer in the same way. It’s like successive governments taking their eyes off the ball when it comes to young people;” “I don’t have a problem with them being on it if what they see is age-appropriate and it’s safe. But at the moment there doesn’t seem to be any will to take on the money makers. Nobody has done anything.”

Some wondered how effective statutory regulation would be, or observed that it was only the spectre of Elon Musk that seemed to have stirred the government into action (though this didn’t mean they thought it wasn’t worth trying): “They’re focusing on X, probably because it’s the biggest and it’s Elon Musk, but there are other apps and platforms that have got the same kind of technology. It won’t stop and another one will pop up for sure;” “How do you enforce it? Young people still want cigarettes.” Noting the swift move to ban deepfake tools, some wondered why the same sense of urgency and purpose could not be brought to bear on the bigger problems facing the country: “The thing I’m frustrated about is that it demonstrates how quickly we can make a decision and put something on the books very, very quickly. But we can’t sort out the critical social problems in this country. We can sort out some American AI company and get that legislation, but we can’t sort out the real problems.”

“He changes his mind left, right and centre. He never sticks to one thing”

 The groups were unconvinced by Keir Starmer’s claim that Britain was “turning the corner” and that this year people would “feel the change” (“I have no faith whatsoever”). Participants in every group spontaneously raised the growing number of U-turns. Even though digital ID, inheritance tax on family farms and business rate hikes for pubs were widely unpopular, the latest series of reversals reinforced the impression of a weak government with no sense of direction. All the following quotes are from 2024 Labour voters: “I would be happier if he went in there and I disagreed with everything he did, but he stuck to it. It just feels like he’s happy to take advice from whatever’s popular;” “Rachel from Accounts did another U-turn. If the stats said it needed to happen, she should have stuck to the stats. But the pressure made her look at them again and find a way out to make it look better. And I think she does that too much;” “He changes his mind left, right and centre. He never sticks to one thing;” “He doesn’t look like a leader.” Several also noted how much time Keir Starmer seemed to spend overseas: “He seems to be on a plane most of the time flying out of the country. He doesn’t seem to be concerned about what’s actually happening here.”

A few were more sympathetic, arguing that Labour were trying to restore the public finances, and approved of policies on breakfast clubs and taxpayer-funded childcare. Some wished the government would do a better job of getting its arguments across (“I thought a barrister would be better at communicating”).

Many thought Starmer would leave Downing Street before the election, but the groups saw no obvious replacement. There were positive mentions for Andy Burnham and Shabana Mahmood, but Wes Streeting was less well known. A few saw Angela Rayner as a likely replacement but did not necessarily welcome the prospect: “Angela Rayner has got something about her. But you don’t want corrupt people bending the rules to make money, and she’s done that. You want to be able to uphold these people, respect them;” “She has to spend 20 minutes telling us about her background before she actually tells us what she’s telling us about.”

Disappointed though many were with Starmer, there was little appetite for another change: “How many prime ministers have we had under the Tories? It was a disaster. Every year there was a different person. It’s the last thing I want. I remember when Labour came in, I thought I hope politics gets boring. And consistency is really boring.”

“He’s got the balls and the spine to do things that many of our leaders are too soft to do”

 Most opposed President Trump’s claims on Greenland, though views were much more mixed on US action in Venezuela. Most thought the government was right to maintain good relations with the US, whatever their views of Trump: “They haven’t been overly vocal. We’re a small country. We might agree with him and we might not agree with him, but we’re going to support him;” “It’s good that they’re in with the Americans because if something really did happen, we’ve got them.” A few found this reluctance to criticise frustrating: “Everyone’s scared of America. Not just Starmer, it’s the majority of the world. They just say ‘naughty boy, don’t do it again’;” “The only one who stood up is the Lib Dem leader who actually called Trump out in parliament.”

Not for the first time, there was also a widespread feeling that we Britain would benefit from having a more Trump-like attitude in its leaders: “He’s got the balls and the spine to do things that many of our leaders are too soft to do. Here it’s the backbenchers that are running the shop and we don’t have that leadership from the front. Whether or not we agree with what Trump is doing and how he does it, it shows leadership and character to go and do the things which are unpleasant at times.”

Most in the group agreed it was right to seize Russian oil tankers operating under false flags, and at least tentatively supported the idea of British troops joining a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine in the event of a peace deal. At the same time, many were nervous about the way things were going in international affairs and where it would all end: “It’s the first time I’ve sensed that the sands are shifting around NATO, that there’s actually talk of it fracturing. We might have to respond to something. But he might be the one we’re responding to;” “I feel like we’re on the edge of world war three. I do feel that it’s not going to take much for that to escalate unless something is done.”

 “Stop messing about and be more serious”

 Finally, if Nigel Farage made a New Year’s resolution, what should it be?

“Don’t take any more Tory has-beens into the party. He needs to appeal to a wider church of people;” “Be careful who you mix with. I don’t think he’s actually a racist but he’s got to shake off that image because he got lumbered with the British National Party and all that.” What about Ed Davey? “Stop messing about and be more serious. Appear on TV in something other than a wetsuit. Hold them to account. I was expecting them to be a bit more vocal, because they had a lot more MPs.” How about Kemi Badenoch? “Have a bit more confidence. She’s growing into her role a lot more, she’s really forceful in PMQs, she can say ‘I’m going to bang the drum for what I believe in and my party’s policies,’ and I think people would warm to her more.” And Keir Starmer? “Spend more time with the people of the United Kingdom;” “Step out of your comfort zone and talk to us more. I want to see him preach what he believes or what he’s doing. After the synagogue attack in Manchester he spoke from the heart and he did that really well. When he’s scripted he gets awkward. He needs to believe in himself and have the confidence that he can do that.”