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Local Election Live Blog: North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire add to Reform UK’s tally. How should the Conservatives respond? | Conservative Home

    9pm Harry Phibbs writes

    The Conservatives have lost overall control of Buckingham – though easily remaining the largest party. Reform UK only won three councillors here. But there are 13 independents so perhaps they may provide scope to allow a minority Conservative administration or a coalition.

    North Northamptonshire Council has seen Reform UK gain overall control. The Conservatives have lost 37 seats, Labour has lost eight.

    West Northamptonshire has also seen Reform UK just get over the line to win overall control there too.

    This has been the most extraordinary set of local elections I can remember. It is not a complete surprise. Electoral Calculus did some polling for the Daily Telegraph in March which pointed to a reform UK breakthrough. Using a large enough sample to offer county projections it had Reform UK winning overall control in four councils – Derbyshire, Doncaster, Durham and Kent. But they have won overall control in ten.

    There will be plenty of analysis into why this has happened. I suspect the most straightforward one will get little attention. Many are not happy about the standard of local government in this country. The average Council Tax is £2,280 at Band D this year. Many feel it is not good value for money and could and should be lower. They feel that too much money is spent on woke and bureaucratic indulgences rather than on basic services such as filling potholes and emptying the dustbins each week. Furthermore, many struggle to spot much difference whether the Council is Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem.

    Reform UK has harnessed a taxpayer’s revolt in the spirit of Howard Jarvis’s Proposition 13 in California in 1978. Thousands of Freedom of Information requests were sent in, echoing the work of the Taxpayers Alliance over the years. Nigel Farage would vary his stump speech to include the relevant local examples. Spending on debt interest, on consultants, on agency workers, on layers of executives on six-figure salaries. On equalties officers, of course. He (quite rightly) challenged councils over their administrative inertia in refusing to use the JCB PotholePro, which can fill potholes more effectively and at a far lower cost than traditional methods.

    Will all his new councillors deliver? Or will they let him down? Probably a mixture depending on capable and determined leaders emerging – which will happen unevenly. The caveat has been offered that it will take time for the chainsaw to deliver results. No specific promises have been made. Fair enough. A Council Tax rebate this year is unrealistic. Yet substantial in-year savings should be possible. Will these councils announce a recruitment freeze next week, for example? A voluntary redundancy offer? The test will be when next year’s Council Tax levels are being set. Will the Reform UK councils deliver a cut? Or will they just increase to the maximum allowed without requiring a referendum – like everyone else?

    How should the Conservatives respond? We should have the humility to accept the voter’s verdict – especially as it was not a repudiation of Conservatism but rather the opposite. Perhaps in Northumberland, Leicestershire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire there will be deals to be made for Reform UK and the Conservatives to run these councils together. These should not about cynical haggling over sharing out Special Responsibility Allowances to chair different committees. They should be about a shared mission. Smaller government. Greater freedom. A chance for more families to afford a holiday next year as their Council Tax bill has gone down. Rather than willing these new councils to fail we should be challenge them to succeed, pressing them to go further and faster – working in partnership with them whether that is what the numbers in the Council chamber require.

    Conservative councils facing the electorate next year should reflect on the likely fate that awaits them if they do not pursue Conservative policies. The displacement activity of a leadership challenge would make us a laughing stock. That does not mean we should shrug and carry on as before. We need to prove we can deliver Conservative policies more effectively than Reform UK. Tactical voting can have a significant impact. But merely scolding disgruntled voters than voting Reform UK “let’s Labour in” comes across as sneering at a spouse for contemplatinig leaving an abusive relationship. The defeatist claim that it is “not possible” to cut Council spending will prove pretty hollow if Reform UK councils succeed. So to win the Conservative Party needs to show we are better at delivering Conservative policies than any other party. That’s what the voters are looking for. It is not too much to ask.

    19:20, Victoria Stratford reporting

    The electoral picture is broad after yesterday’s County Council Elections with more Labour discontent with the Labour government needing a “change of plan” after a series of decisions that have alienated the electorate including scrapping the winter fuel allowance and proposed disability cuts, but the public aren’t ready to trust the Tories again just yet.

    Reform UK has won Doncaster County Council from Labour in one of their traditional heartlands. Reform has taken 29 seats on the council, with Labour having three and the Conservatives having two – although several seats are still waiting to be declared. Previously, Labour controlled the council with 41 seats.

    As of 6:30pm, final results were in from 17 of the 23 councils holding elections with Reform gaining 476 seats and the Liberal Democrats in second with 237. The Conservatives and Labour are both down which shows the shift in electoral attitudes towards the two main parties.

    18:00, Victoria Stratford reporting 

    The Lib Dems have won control over Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire County Councils after previously being the largest party in the councils but with not enough seats to have overall control.

    Ex-Olympic boxer and former medalist Luke Campbell has just won the new Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral elections proving how Reform UK ‘means business’.

    Conservative Party Leader, Kemi Badenoch, has insisted that despite Reform UK gaining ground in these elections that the Tories are still the main opposition and that they are “holding Labour to account” on issues such as education and the economy. Although Badenoch also admitted in the wake of council seat losses that whilst the public is ‘fed up’ with Labour they are not ready to trust the Tories.

    Labour have managed to win the mayoral races in North Tyneside, the West of England, and Doncaster despite losing 139 seats across the country so far.

    16:30, Victoria Stratford reporting’ 

    As the afternoon comes to an end, so does Labour having control over Durham County Council. Unsurprisingly, Reform UK has taken control of the council after winning more than half of the seats. With all 98 results declared, Reform UK managed to gain 65 councillors from Labour and the Tories as well as independents.

    Durham isn’t the only place to have seen a majority Reform UK County Council formed. In Lancashire, there is a similar scene with Reform gaining 530 councillors and the Tories losing 517 across the country. In Kent, Reform UK has won control of its seventh council taking 45 seats as taking Nottinghamshire where the Conservatives were previously in control.

    However, in Hertfordshire as it stands, the Lib Dems are looking likely to win control over the council it’s them having won 23 councillors so far with the Tories behind in second place with 13.

    The Conservatives regained the mayoral position in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough which they lose in 2021 to Labour. This win for the Tories was seen as a “significant win” on a “very difficult night.”

    With 14 councils fully declared, Reform UK have control over seven whilst the others are under No Overall Control. Nine councils have yet to finish counting but are expected to by 7pm.

    Harry Phibbs writes

    So is our Party over? Is the Conservative Party, founded in 1834, having shown so much resilience and so many triumphs, facing its demise? Or will the local elections merely be “disappointing” with “some people making a protest.” “Pro bono publico, no bloody panico,” as dear old Rear-Admiral Sir Morgan Morgan-Giles, Tory MP for Winchester, used to say.

    Most of the votes are being counted today. Reform UK’s by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes is the big news from last night. The council elections will see the focus switch to Reform UK versus the Conservatives. But contrary to expectations it may well be Labour that has most to worry about.

    We are waiting for the great majority of results but the tremors from last night’s declarations suggest that today’s results really could see a political earthquake. That the “duopoly” that has already been broken up in the opinion polls will be shown to have done so in real life as people deliver their verdict via the ballot box. It does not follow that the Conservatives are finished.

    Northumberland has been the first council to declare its full results. It continues to be under no overall control with the Conservatives as the largest Party with 26 councillors, a loss of nine. Reform UK are just behind with 23. Labour have just eight councillors – a loss of 12 on last time. Just remember that “last time” was 2021. Peak Boris Johnson. The same night that Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election and Sir Keir Starmer considered resigning. Labour has fallen back. The gap between Labour and Conservatives in the council chamber in Northumberland has widened.

    Staffordshire has counted about half its results. It looks very likely that Reform UK will have an overall majority. That would mean they are doing even better than the Electoral Calculus polling indicated. A very interesting result – though far more interesting will be what they do in power. So far, they are on 24 and the Conservatives on only six with nothing for anyone else. There are new boundaries which complicate matters. But last time Labour only got four seats, losing six. Will they be wiped out this time? What will the county’s Labour MPs make of it?

    We have a few results from Hertfordshire. The Conservatives are on six. Reform UK are on two – both gained from the Conservatives.

    We also have some Mayoral results. Ros Jones was re-elected as the Labour Mayor of Doncaster – but much more narrowly than last time. Labour also held the Mayoralty in North Tyneside, again by a much tighter margin. Labour also held the West of England mayoralty – with just a quarter of the vote share, compared to a third of the vote share last time.

    Then, as expected, we had Dame Andrea Jenkyns’ election as Greater Lincolnshire Mayor, for Reform UK. The post has very little power. But her clear margin of victory combined with Reform UK winning control of Lincolnshire County Council – which has considerable power. They have hit the majority needed with 41 seats, currently ahead of The Conservatives in second, who only have nine seats so far.

    Nearly a hundred Council by-elections took place too – giving us a sense of opinion on other parts of the country. Many of those counted last night and we saw Reform UK gain seats from Labour in Hartlepool, Harlow, Norfolk, Rochdale, Exeter and Lichfield. Labour lost a seat to the Green Party in Lambeth. Reform UK gained a seat from the Conservatives in Thurrock and from the Lib Dems in Blaby. The Conservatives gained a seat from Labour in Cherwell.

    The Press Association has offered the following estimate of declarations for the rest of the results. In the past, these timings have proved pretty unreliable, but they offer some idea:

    • 1pm Durham
    • 1.45pm Lancashire
    • 2.30pm Hull & East Yorkshire Mayoral election
    • 3pm Buckinghamshire, Doncaster, Leicestershire
    • 3pm Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Mayoral election
    • 4pm Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire
    • 4.30pm Derbyshire
    • 5pm Lincolnshire, North Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire
    • 6pm Cambridgeshire, Cornwall, Devon, Wiltshire
    • 7pm Kent, West Northamptonshire

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