A Labour member of the Senedd has said there is a “growing sense” that the UK government is treating Wales “with contempt”, hitting out at the national insurance hike and over Port Talbot.
The MS, who spoke to LabourList under anonymity, also expressed fears at the prospect of Reform becoming the largest party in Wales and the “untold damage they could do” in government, with 12 months to go until the next Senedd election.
It comes as Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said she would be prepared to call out the government in Westminster if decisions are made that will harm Welsh communities.
‘Simmering discontent’ in Senedd Labour group
The MS told LabourList: “I won’t say that the party feels buoyant at the moment. I think there’s a sense at the moment that we’ve waited 14 years for a UK Labour government – and the partnership in power stuff is being thrown back in our faces every week by Plaid, because we’re not getting anything out of this bloody partnership in power.”
They explained there is a “simmering discontent” among all members of the Labour group in the Senedd and said: “There is a growing sense that we’re being treated with contempt by the UK government.
“The Welsh government is trying to tread a difficult path in that relationship. We’re very clear that it’s not in our interests or the UK government’s interests to be saying any of this stuff publicly, but if we’re not getting anything out of this partnership, then that reckoning may come sooner than later.”
The MS was particularly critical of the UK government’s national insurance hike, which they said will hit Welsh organisations harder than other parts of the country, as well as over the perceived lack of support for Port Talbot in the wake of the package agreed to save British Steel in Scunthorpe.
“There were all sorts of promises being made about what an incoming Labour government would do, and they have not acted in the way that they have acted for Scunthorpe. It’s really difficult to explain why the UK government is not seen to be supporting Port Talbot and Tata Steel in the same way.”
READ MORE: Runcorn blame game begins – why did Labour lose?
‘Clear red water’ approach from First Minister ‘almost inevitable’: MS
In her speech yesterday, First Minister Eluned Morgan said that, while she believes working closely with the Labour government in Westminster, “we want Welsh voters to see more evidence of delivery before they cast their votes next May” and said Welsh Labour would lean into our “red Welsh way” of doing things, calling our unfairness and speaking up when there are disagreements.
The MS told LabourList that Morgan’s “clear red water” approach was “almost inevitable”.
“We don’t feel like we’re getting our fair share – that is putting us under huge pressure in the run-up to the Senedd election because it’s giving the impression that we can’t influence the UK government and that we’re basically sterile, we can’t do anything.”
‘Reform could destroy everything we’ve done in 25 years’
With Reform close behind Labour in opinion polling, the MS said that Nigel Farage’s party are a “real concern” because of the “untold damage that they could do”.
“The Welsh government is responsible for health, local government, housing, transport, infrastructure, the economy – Reform could, with the stroke of a pen, destroy everything we’ve done in 25 years.
“Our task is to actually to persuade people of that. I don’t think people are listening. When I come up against anybody who’s suggesting that Reform is the answer, generally the response you get is ‘well they can’t do any worse than this lot’.
“It doesn’t matter what Reform’s policies are, it doesn’t matter that people haven’t a clue what they stand for – they’re not Labour, they’re not the Tories.”
The MS said she hopes that the next election would return a progressive majority in the Senedd and described the alternative as “unthinkable”.
“I was in the Senedd when we had UKIP. They contributed nothing constructive, they tried to disrupt, they had no stability – Mark Reckless changed parties four times in five years.
“They were absolutely chaotic, and that’s what we can expect if they are in any numbers in the Senedd next time.”
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‘We risk losing if our movement keeps drifting rightwards’
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr MP Steve Witherden is well aware of the threat Reform pose in Wales, with the party placing second in his constituency at the last election by less than 4,000 votes.
He warned of Wales becoming the “canary in the Reform coalmine” if the government in Westminster didn’t change course on policies such as planned changes to disability benefit.
“Welsh Labour has been the largest party for over a hundred years because we are fiercely proud of our own identity, steadfastly left-of-centre, and committed to the union. We share that with the median voter in a way that is simply not true of any other party.
“We risk losing the election if our movement keeps drifting rightwards. We risk becoming the canary in the Reform coalmine if we do not stick up for the working class by properly taxing extreme wealth and dropping plans to cut disability benefits.”
Eluned and Keir – the political answer to Nessa and Smithy?
In her speech, Morgan drew comparisons with Gavin and Stacey and the relationship Welsh Labour has with the Labour government in Westminster.
“Our relationship with the UK government won’t be like Dawn and Pete’s – constantly clashing. Since Labour’s election in July, our relationship with the UK government has improved immeasurably.
“But our relationship won’t be like Pam and Mick’s either – always laughing and getting along. There will be times when what’s right for Essex is not right for Barry, or for Wales, and that’s okay. Like Nessa and Smithy, there will be a bond, but yes, there will also be issues.”
Chris Carter, Welsh Labour activist and commentator, said her speech “reaffirmed that Welsh Labour is speaking with its own distinctive voice within the wider Labour movement”.
“The Gavin and Stacey analogy resonates because, like the show, politics is about connection and we all gravitate toward the characters we identify with most.
“The real question now is whether voters will warm to this new direction under a new First Minister ahead of the 2026 election.
“With welfare cuts hitting Welsh communities up to six times harder than some areas of England, it’s clear the First Minister felt she had no choice but to speak out from Cardiff Bay.
“This new episode in the series will certainly be watched closely not just in Wales, but perhaps even more so in Westminster, where another of the intended audiences may well reside.”
‘Distinct possibility of a right-wing government for the first time’
Another Labour source, who spoke to LabourList on condition of anonymity, was more optimistic about the party’s chances in 12 months’ time. They acknowledged that, while the polls indicated a close race and the prospect of a right-wing government in Wales for the first time, Welsh Labour is offering fresh faces and fresh ideas.
“We’ve got a dynamic First Minister, full of fresh ideas and enthusiasm, leading a new team with an exciting agenda, which will be unveiled – in part at least – at our conference in July.”
They said the year ahead would be crucial in making sure Labour remains in power in the Senedd and that, with the new voting system, protest votes for other parties could have a seismic impact on the make-up of the parliament.
“As things stand, there is a distinct possibility of a right-wing government for the first time, which would be working against the Welsh people’s interests.
“That has profound implications for the future social direction for Wales as a country. It is worrying – the National Health Service was born in Wales, but we could have a right-wing government which has an agenda to undermine the NHS.
“People have assumed Labour always win in Wales – that’s no longer the case. If people want Labour, they’ve got to actually think long and hard about what choices they have.”
‘This election is not a done deal’
Eluned Morgan described the upcoming election in a year’s time as “the most important election since devolution”.
The First Minister told LabourList: “We know times have been tough, but we are turning a corner. Waiting lists are coming down for the third month in a row, there’s more money in the post for schools and roads and councils. Working alongside a UK Labour government, we can now be more ambitious than ever – driving forward progress and delivering for the people of Wales.
“Reform would gamble with Wales’ future. Nigel Farage wants to dismantle our NHS – his insurance-based model would leave families paying for care. And Plaid Cymru’s reckless politics puts gameplaying before the people of Wales.
“This election is not a done deal. It is a choice between progress with Welsh Labour or risk with Plaid and Reform. Only Welsh Labour has the record, the vision, and the leadership to keep Wales moving forward.”
READ MORE: ‘Labour must expose the gap between Reform’s local ambition and ability’
A UK Labour source said: “The people of Wales can see the benefits of two Labour governments working together through what we have already delivered for Wales, just ten months since the election.
“NHS waiting lists in Wales have fallen three months in a row thanks to the work of Welsh Government and the biggest ever real terms budget settlement from UK government last autumn.
“Up to 160,000 workers across Wales are getting a record pay rise through UK Government’s increases to the living wage and minimum wage. For full time workers over 20, up to £1400 a year more and for 18-20 year olds up to £2500 a year more. This comes alongside the thousands of apprenticeships being created by the Welsh Government.
“An £80m promise by the Tories to help Port Talbot, which was completely unfunded, has been fully funded by Labour and is now being deployed to help steelworkers and businesses in Port Talbot and the wider supply chain.
“Both governments are creating tens of thousands of jobs across Wales in our green industries, advanced manufacturing, ports and more. And both governments have invested millions to keep coal tips maintained and safe, when the Conservatives refused funding requests from Welsh government.
“While we don’t agree on everything, we are determined to deliver on our shared priorities; raising living standards, creating new jobs, reducing NHS waiting lists, making our streets safer and opportunities for people across Wales.
“This is in stark contrast to other parties in Wales. The Conservatives can’t stop arguing over who actually leads them in Wales. Plaid are obsessed with independence. And Reform are so busy trying to find Wales on a map they can’t even be bothered to elect a Welsh leader.”
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