Ever since OPEC+ countries started to unwind their 2.2 million b/d worth of voluntary production cuts, the expectation was that Middle Eastern producers would start to flood the markets in order to re-gain market share.
– Saudi Arabia’s June export numbers indicate that Saudi Aramco is doubling down on its production hikes, shipping 6.4 million b/d in seaborne outflows alone, marking the strongest monthly reading since March 2024.
– Saudi Arabia’s production quota was set at 9.367 million b/d for June and 9.534 million b/d, suggesting that with 220,000 b/d of pipeline exports to Bahrain and 3 million b/d of domestic refinery runs, Saudi Aramco might have brought output back even quicker than assumed.
– As daytime temperatures remain above 40° C (100° F) for some weeks already, Saudi Arabia will also maximize crude and fuel oil burning for power generation, usually peaking in July when Saudi generators burn a whopping 1.5 million b/d of fuel to keep Saudi homes cool.
Market Movers
– French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) purchased a 25% stake in Suriname’s offshore Block 53 from Spanish energy firm Moeve, expanding into the block adjacent to its $10.5 billion Gran Morgu development.
– Norway’s state-controlled oil company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) and its partners approved a $1.3 billion expansion plan for the Johan Sverdrup field, currently Europe’s largest, expected to be launched in Q4 2027.
– Australia’s upstream firm Santos (ASX:STO) granted exclusive due diligence for a six-week period to Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC after the latter offered $18.7 billion for it, indicating Santos is keen to be sold.
– Spanish oil company Repsol (BME:REP) agreed to sell its 24% interest in the mature Corridor development onshore Indonesia for a consideration of $425 million to the asset’s local operator, Medco Energi.
Tuesday, July 01, 2025
With Israel-Iran no longer being the main talking points of markets, the focus is now back on OPEC+ as the oil group meets this weekend to discuss further production moves in what seems to be another step in Saudi Arabia’s master plan to get rid of the 2.2 million b/d voluntary cut system. Brent futures were largely rangebound, trading around $67 per barrel as the global benchmark switched to September, as the market expects bigger moves next week from the double whammy of OPEC+ announcements and Trump’s tariff policy.
Saudi Arabia to Hike August Formula Prices. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, is expected to increase its formula prices for August-loading cargoes in Asia by $0.50-0.80 per barrel, as the Israel-Iran war lifted backwardation to its highest since February.
US Lifts Oil Sanctions on Syria. The Trump administration has lifted most energy-related sanctions on Syria, including an Obama-era 2011 ban on US imports of Syrian oil and refined products, whilst the country’s Baniyas refinery switched from Iranian crude to Russian oil.
Guyana Eyes Rapid NGLs Expansion. The government of Guyana, one of the fast-rising stars of offshore oil production, has called on interested companies to bid for a natural gas liquids (NGL) facility to produce propane and butane from the natural gas piped from Exxon’s (NYSE:XOM) fields.
Colombia Strikes Big Oil, For Once. Colombia’s national oil producer Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) will be doubling down on its giant Lorito oil discovery in the onshore Llanos Basin, having drilled three appraisal wells in over the past year, confirming recoverable reserves of 250 million barrels.
Another UK Refiner Bites the Dust. Following the spring closure of the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery, another British refinery could be going down the drain after the 113,000 b/d Lindsey plant operated by private firm Prax began insolvency proceedings, putting 420 jobs at risk.
Enbridge Takes the State of Michigan to Court. The US Supreme Court agreed to hear the case of Canada’s midstream giant Enbridge (TSO:ENB) against Michigan Attorney General seeking to halt operations of the 540,000 b/d Line 5 pipeline, part of which runs underneath the Strait of Mackinac.
Russia Mulls Lower Taxes for Embattled Gas Giant. Russia’s government has been discussing ways to lower the tax burden of the country’s largest gas producer Gazprom, after a loss-making 2023 result and no dividends paid out in 2024, whilst the firm struggles to re-orient its sales towards Asia.
Singapore Sees Record Renewable Boost. The share of renewables in Singapore’s power output mix soared to a record high in May after robust solar generation – growing at the fastest pace in more than a year – lifted clean energy to 3%, whilst gas still accounts for a whopping 95% of the total.
Damaged Israeli Refinery Eyes Gradual Return. Israeli refiner ORL (TLV:ORL) said that it had partly resumed activities at its missile-stricken 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery, shut down on the heels of Iranian strikes during the 12-Day War, hoping to be fully operational by October 2025.
Chinese Miners Expand into Central Asia. In what will go down as one of the most important mining deals of 2025, Chinese mining giant Zijin (SHA:601899) agreed to purchase one of the largest gold mines in Kazakhstan, the Raygorodok mine, for $1.2 billion from local operator RG Gold LLP.
Copper Prices Go Up, So Does Chile’s Production. Chile has churned out the most copper this year so far in May, a total of 486,754 metric tonnes or up 9.4% from the same period last year, as rapidly depleting stocks keep cash prices above $10,000 per metric tonne, despite more Chilean supply.
LNG Canada Ships Its First Cargo. As signalled in our last week’s report, the $30 billion LNG Canada project loaded its maiden LNG cargo from Kitimat, Canada’s first ever export of liquefied natural gas, with the Shell-chartered Gaslog Glasgow LNG carrier heading towards Incheon, South Korea.
US Creates Hidden Subsidy for Met Coal. Metallurgical coal, used for coking in steel production, will receive a subsidy from the Trump Administration as the One Big Beautiful Bill in its current form allows coal producers to claim an advanced manufacturing tax credit, equivalent to 2.5% of the fuel.
| Analog charts are fun. They can scare and excite investors unlike any other. But, here’s the thing about drawing rigid comparisons to the past… It’s never going to be like 1987. Or 2017. The next crash and market turn won’t look like the dot-com bubble or the financial crisis. It will look the 2025 market. The one we’re in now. History never really repeats. It just rhymes and follows familiar rhythms. And that is why we study charts like the one below. |
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| This one is from Grant— He’s our numbers guy. And he’s the best in the business when it comes to studies and visuals like this one. He is comparing S&P 500 bull markets throughout history, and showing us where the current cycle stacks up against the rest. The S&P 500 is up about 73% in the roughly 700 days since bottoming back in 2022. While it sounds like an impressive run, it’s nothing compared to some other bull market periods. The average bull market returns 154% over the course of 1,145 days. The current bull market is not the best, but also not the worst. It’s not the longest or the shortest either. It’s kind of right in the middle compared to the other data points. If it ended tomorrow, we wouldn’t be surprised. And if it ran on for another few years, and tacked on an additional 50% or so… that wouldn’t surprise me either. It’s important to be open to a diverse range of outcomes, and this is why it is helpful to understand and consider the context of what went on yesterday. However, we’re here trying to make money in this market. Today. Tomorrow. This week. This quarter. It’s about what is happening now. And this time won’t be like any of those others. It will be uniquely like 2025. Small-caps Speaking of differences in cycles, we’re almost 3 years into the current bull market, and small caps have barely participated. While it is uncommon to see such a lackluster performance from the smallest stocks, we think it’s about to change. |
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| This chart shows the Russell 2000 Index $IWM breaking back above its VWAP from last year’s high. After a clean retest and rebound, are small caps about to join the party? We think it would be appropriate. But at this point, “we gotta see it!” Here’s our Minor Leaguers scan: |
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| We run this small cap focused universe every other week. It is designed to identify the leadership stocks in this pond of underperformers. If investors ever start to slide down the cap-scale in search of risk, now would be the time. And the names that are at the top of this list today, are likely to be the biggest winners once the space comes back into favor. |
 Data: Department of Labor; Chart: Axios Visuals If you look only at how many Americans are losing their jobs, this appears to be a pretty terrific labor market.
Why it matters: It makes for a labor market in which those who have a job are able to hold onto it — but the outlook for new entrants to the workforce, or those unhappy with their current positions, is much gloomier.
Driving the news: New Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data out this morning tells the tale. The number of layoffs fell by 188,000 in May, dropping to a rate only a tick above its multidecade lows.
State of play: Similarly, if you look solely at initial jobless claims — the number of people who have lost their jobs and therefore file for unemployment benefits — everything looks good.
Between the lines: That suggests that while not many people are losing their jobs involuntarily, those who do are finding themselves on the jobless rolls for longer, as employers are reluctant to hire.
Of note: Powell described this as “a more concerning thing” in his news conference last month — even as he and his colleagues view the labor market as being in basically sound shape.
Reality check: There could be better news on the horizon. The number of job openings spiked by 374,000 in May, perhaps reflecting business confidence rebounding after trade war de-escalation.
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| We’ve been pounding the table on Copper futures since China started ripping last year. However, it has been a slower start than we anticipated. Now, our patience is being rewarded… We’re seeing evidence that the trade is heating up. Copper futures are trading at fresh all-time highs as they play catch-up with Gold futures. We’re also beginning to see the Copper miners play catch-up to the underlying commodity. This has been on our radar for months, but we’ve only recently seen significant changes. Here’s what we’re talking about |
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| The red line represents Copper futures, and the blue candlesticks represent the Global X Copper Miners ETF $COPX. Historically, these two have danced together. However, that relationship broke down earlier this year as the futures reached new highs, while the performance of miners stagnated. Now, with Copper holding above $5, the pressure is building on COPX to follow suit and make new highs. The recent surge suggests that the miners may be playing some serious catch-up on the upside here. |
Full:https://paulkedrosky.com/weekend-reading-plus-spvs-meta-and-fiber-buildout-2-0/
An Enron type of development.
And $5B+ Unicorns: https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/ultra-unicorn-startups-lead-private-market-2025/
I’ll have the monthly data up later today or possibly tomorrow. Early start for me today.
jog on
duc
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#July #DDD