A woman shops in a supermarket as rising inflation affects consumer prices in Los Angeles, California, June 13, 2022.
Lucy Nicholson | Reuters
The pace of consumer inflation is expected to have fallen slightly in December from the prior month because of a sharp drop in gasoline and energy prices, but the annual rate is still likely to remain uncomfortably high.
According to Dow Jones, economists now expect a decline of 0.1% in the consumer price index on a monthly basis, but inflation is still expected to climb at a 6.5% rate from the prior year. That compares to a gain of 0.1% in November, and a 7.1% pace year over year. However, the CPI is well off the 9.1% peak rate in June.
Core CPI, excluding energy and food, is expected to be up 0.3% in December, gaining 5.7% on a year-over-year basis. Core CPI rose 0.2% in November and 6% on a yearly basis.
“We welcome it with open arms. It’s good news,” said KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk of the expected decline. “It’s great and it helped to fuel consumer spending in the fourth quarter. … But it’s still not enough.”
The consumer price index is expected Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. It is the final CPI report before the Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 interest rate decision. For that reason, the inflation number has become a major event for financial markets, and now some traders are betting it will show inflation slowing even more than economists forecast. They also point to weaker-than-expected wage growth in December’s jobs report, as well as other data that reflects lower inflation expectations.
Stocks rallied on Wednesday ahead of the report. “The market is looking at it as glass half full. Inflation is rolling over, and the Fed is almost done raising interest rates,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. “I think they remember the last two months when you had numbers that were well below expectations. They’re just assuming that’s going to be the case again.”
rate range is currently at 4.25% to 4.5%, and the central bank has forecast a final high rate of 5.1% for this year.
“The Fed is also worried about a second round of supply shock, whether it’s China’s abrupt abandonment of its zero-Covid policy or something else from Russia. They don’t want to declare victory too soon,” said Swonk. “They’re making that very clear. They’ve said it over and over again and nobody listens.”
Economists expect another key metric — the personal consumption expenditure deflator — could show core inflation slowing even below the Fed’s forecast of 3.5% by Dec. 31. Some economists who expect a recession predict rate cuts before year-end, as the markets expect. But the Fed has no forecast for rate cuts until 2024.
Some strategists expect Fed officials to begin to sound more dovish and less at odds with the market view. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday that she was leaning toward a quarter-point hike at the next meeting.
“We think one of the changes in coming months is the Fed will soon realize it is cheaper to change the inflation narrative than reverse a recession leading to millions of lost jobs,” writes Fundstrat founder Tom Lee in a note Wednesday.