How Many Steps to Leave Democracy Behind?

Something strange is happening in America. Presidents Obama and Biden both arrested and deported undocumented migrants and we expected Trump to increase the rate at which this happened. However, many have been both surprised and disturbed at the way this has been carried out.

Under Biden, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was directed to quietly prioritise the arrest and removal of noncitizens who pose a threat to national security, public safety, and border security. The result was a sharp drop in interior arrests (away from the border) of non-criminal migrants and the lack of media focus on these arrests allowed Trump to claim that Biden was soft on illegal immigration.

By contrast under Trump there has been an aggressive attempt to arrest migrants across the whole country – not just recent migrants at the border; additionally, the focus on undocumented migrants with criminal records seems to have been abandoned. More than 75% of people booked into ICE custody in fiscal year 2025 had no criminal conviction other than an immigration or traffic-related offense, according to ICE records from October through the end of May. And less than 10% were convicted of serious crimes like murder, assault, robbery or rape. This has provoked a public reaction, but is this accidental or deliberate?

ICE could have been more discrete in their actions, but there seems to have been an element of performative cruelty about the way people are being snatched off the streets by burly ICE agents wearing military style clothing and carrying a range of weapons and who are masked with no identifying numbers. Where people do not immediately accept being arrested the level of force used is sometimes extraordinary.

Taking Control

Since WW2 much research has been undertaken across the world to explain how civilised, cultured democratic societies sometimes allow themselves to be taken over by dictators and some common elements have been identified. These are:

1. Establish a cult of personality
2. Erode public trust in institutions
3. Remove checks and balances
4. Concentration of power
5. Control of the media
6. Dividing society – scapegoating
7. Normalising of authoritarian behaviour
8. Creating a climate of fear
9. Suppression of dissent – delegitimise opposition

If you look at the actions of ICE in recent months, they are fulfilling steps 6, 7 and 8.

Step 6 Scapegoating: A repeated message from Trump is that outsiders are to blame for America’s woes, America is being ripped off by all the other countries and his focus on migrants fits that narrative. Apparently, ICE are going after ‘aliens who are so uniquely barbaric that their own countries won’t take them back, including convicted murderers, child rapists and drug traffickers’.

Step 7 Normalising Authoritarian Behaviour: Americans are seeing people snatched off the streets by armed and masked men, parents are taken from outside their schools as they try to collect their children or even arrested outside a court as they try to document their presence.

Step 8 A Climate of Fear: The normal human reaction is to step in and ask what is going on but on several documented occasions, some caught on film, ICE agents threaten the interested public with pepper spray or even with lethal weapons. People are being encouraged to feel afraid of challenging government policy.

This climate of fear is being extended with people visiting the US now finding that their social media will be scrutinised for any criticism of the Trump administration. One Norwegian tourist was denied entry to the US because his phone had an unflattering meme of the VP and now students entering the USA on visas must declare their social media accounts so they can be investigated.

The Road to Autocracy

Are Americans being deliberately trained to accept authoritarian rule? Are they being shown that they are helpless in the face of Trump’s power, that all resistance is useless and that democracy is being dismantled?

Perhaps only time can tell, but if you look at the 9 steps above, it is not just steps 6, 7 and 8 that are being completed. Steps 1-4 are in progress as well:

Step 1 Cult of Personality: To an extent all presidential candidates try this, but MAGA takes this to another level. We have seen groups of ‘Christians’ praying and laying hands on our saviour Trump, we have political figure queueing up to lavish praise on Trump in a way that Soviet Russians would once praise Stalin – primarily out of fear.

Step 2 Erode Public Trust: Right from the start of his campaign for presidency, Trump sought to portray the existing American system of government as corrupt – ‘Drain the Swamp’ or ‘The Deep State’ etc. Such phrases are used to characterise professional civil servants as a shadowy network with a sinister agenda. When Trump was impeached over the Jan 6^th he called the process a ‘witch-hunt’ implying that he was personally being picked on as a politician, rather than as a participant in an attempt to overthrow an election.

Step 3 Remove Checks and Balances:

In the USA the president is not a king, they have to get permission (checks and balances) from Congress or Senate for some actions. On May 29^th after judges ruled against Trumps decision to impose tariffs without congressional approval, Trump’s spokesperson Karoline Leavitt accused ‘unelected judges of imposing themselves into the Presidential decision-making process’ and she went on to describe the judges as ‘rogue judges’.

Step 4 Concentration of Power: The USA is a federal system with significant power remaining in state control. However, where a state seems in danger of going against Trump policies, Trump is quick to extend his power. Normally State Governors can activate National Guard troops to assist the police for state emergencies, like natural disasters or civil unrest. However, when widespread protests against Trump’s immigration crackdown occurred in California, Trump took personal control of the California National Guard against the wishes of the state governor, under the guise that opposition to his policy was a ‘national emergency’ and gave him this power.

The signs are that the future looks bleak for democracy America and the centralised power of Trump will grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Arnold is a retired teacher from Belfast.