How Did Unionism Recover Its Lead over Nationalism between the 2023 local elections and the Westminster 2024 election?

This article is also in English

Conas a bhfuair aontachtas an lámh in airde ar náisiúnachas i 2024 i gcomparáid le 2023?

Tá páipéar taighde foilsithe agam (san iris Irish Studies in International Affairs {an iris ina bhfoilsitear taighde ARINS}). Rinne mé anailís chun a fháil amach cén fáth a bhain amach níos mó vótaí ag iarrthóirí aontachtacha san olltoghchán Mainistir Thiar (2024W) i gcomparáid le iarrthóirí náisiúnachacha. Tharla a mhalairt sna toghcháin áitiúla i 2023 (2023L). Na céatadáin vótaíochta bailí ná 54.0% i 2023L agus 57.2% i 2024W.

I have just had a paper published by the journal Irish Studies in International Affairs (the ARINS-RIA journal), in which I analysed why the nationalist bloc lead of 4.1% in the 2023 local elections (2023L) changes to a unionist bloc lead of 2.7% in the 2024 Westminster election (2024W). The valid poll share for these elections were 54.0% (2023L) and 57.2% (2024W).

Chruthaigh mé na 18 dtoghcheantar Mhainistir Thiar ó thorthaithe 2023L. Na rudaí is suntasaí ná:

• • ba ea an luascadh 2023-4 idir náisiúnachas agus aontachtas an luascadh is mó idir 1997 agus 2024. Rud an-spéisiúil mar níor bhog céatadán na hOthers idir 2023L agus 2024W.

• • bhí méaduithe móra theacht amach le feiceáil in Oirthear Uladh, go háirithe sna toghcheantair Béal Feirste Thoir, Gleann an Lagáin agus An Dún Thuaigh. Vótóirí aontachtacha nua a spreag an méadú seo.

• • raon na vótaíochta bailí: 52.2%-65.6% {toghcheantair} (13.4% an raon) i 2024W, ach 41.4%-69.9% (28.5% an raon) i 2023L {toghlimistéir}. Toradh an méadú vótaíochta bailí in Oirthear Uladh ná laghdú an raoin i 2024W.

• • bhí vóta measta Shinn Féin i nDoire Thoir i 2023L níos mó ná vóta Ghriogair Chaimbeul i 2024W.

• • bhí borradh aontachtach i Gleann an Lagáin níos mó ná borradh Pháirtí na Comhghuaillíochta. Bhí níos mó suime ag vótálaithe nua aontachta píonós trom a chur ar Pháirtí Aontachta Daonlathacha (PAD) ná an suíochán a choimead aontachtach, sábháilte ó Shorcha Eastwood. B’fhearr leo vótáil ar son Pháirtí Aontachta Uladh (PAU) nó ar son Ghuth Traidisiúnta Aontachta (GTA).

• • bhí vótaíocht bhailí An Dún Thuaidh níos airde ná an vótaíocht bhailí iomlán i 2024. Sin an chéad am ó Chríochdheighilt a tharla seo.

• • cé go bhfuil an teacht amach níos airde i suíocháin Shinn Féin, tá teacht amach sna toghcháin áitiúla níos airde ná sa toghchán Mhainistir Thiar. Sin fáth mór gur thit an céatadán náisiúnach i 2024W. Tá laethanta teacht amach uafásach ard i bhFear Manach/Tír Eoghain Theas agus Lár Uladh imithe go síoraí.

• • tháinig laghdú 1% ar roinn vóta náisiúnach (agus méadú 1% or roinn na hOthers) de thoradh aistharraingt Shinn Féin ó na toghcheantair Béal Feirste Thoir, Gleann an Lagáin agus An Dún Thuaigh.

• • fósta, thit an méid vóta na náisiúnaí sna cúig thoghcheantar déag eile.

• • bhí roinnt vótáil straitéiseach in Aontroim Theas déanta ag náisiúnaithe agus ag taobhaitheoirí Pháirtí na Comhghuaillíochta chun bua Robin Swann a chuideadh thar iarrthóir an PAD.

• • seans ann gur vótáil roinnt bheag náisiúnaigh ar son Jim Allister chun Ian Paisley a ruaigeadh.

I created the 18 2024 Westminster constituencies for the 2023 local election results. And it turns out that:

• • the swing between nationalism and unionism between 2023L and 2024W was the largest swing between 1997 and 2024. This was particularly interesting as the Others’ vote share was static between these elections.

• • there were huge turnout increases in East Ulster, particularly North Down, East Belfast and Lagan Valley. This increase was driven by new unionist voters.

• • the valid poll share range in 2024W was 52.2%-65.6% (13.4% range), compared to 41.4%-69.9% (28.5% range) for 2023L Electoral Areas. The rise in turnout in East Ulster last year caused the much smaller range for 2024W.

• • the estimated Sinn Féin vote in East Londonderry in 2023L was greater than Gregory Campbell’s 2024W vote.

• • the unionist surge in Lagan Valley was much larger than the Alliance increase. New unionist voters wanted to punish the DUP (by voting for UUP and TUV instead) more than they wanted to prevent the loss of a unionist seat to Sorcha Eastwood.

• • For the first time since Partition, North Down’s valid vote share was above average.

• • While turnout is still above average in Sinn Féin seats, turnout is higher in these areas in local elections. This contributed to a loss in relative share for the nationalist bloc. The days of 85-92% turnout in Fermanagh/South Tyrone and Mid Ulster appear to be long gone.

• • Sinn Féin withdrawal from East Belfast, Lagan Valley and North Down caused an estimated 1% drop in the nationalist bloc and a 1% rise in the Other bloc.

• • The nationalist vote also dropped in absolute terms in the other 15 constituencies.

• • There was significant strategic voting in South Antrim by Alliance and nationalist voters to ensure Robin Swann’s victory over the DUP incumbent.

• • Some nationalists may have voted for Jim Allister to ensure the defeat of Ian Paisley in North Antrim.

Tá súil agam go mbainfidh tú tairbhe as an alt. Tá go leor táblaí, graif agus léirscáileanna ann.

If you like tables, graphs and maps, hopefully you’ll enjoy reading the paper.