Farage isn’t your friend

Every time I do a panel; there’s always a smart alec in the crowd. A man, usually. Without doubt he will say, “Yeah, but the British don’t care about you.” He thinks he’s the first person in the world to have this original thought.

Yes, I always say, yes we know. I don’t know a single protestant in Northern Ireland that doesn’t. My grandparents knew. My great grandparents knew before them. It’s not my fault you’ve never spoken to a unionist in your entire life.

So, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Nigel Farage would call a border poll tomorrow. Unionists who support Reform have a death wish. If they ascend to high office and Northern Ireland disrupts their grand ambitions, Farage will throw us under a bus and move on with his day.

The growth of Reform sets Northern Ireland on a collision course with the UK, again. Brexit is a disaster. Farage wants the UK to withdraw from European Convention of Human Rights, a clear breach of the Good Friday Agreement. When Labour “resets” the UK’s relationship with the European Union, Reform will push back. The prospect of border checks and borders down the Irish sea will loom large, again.

If Northern Ireland poses a problem, a choice could be offered. You want to stay in the union? Fine, but we’re leaving the ECHR and we’re embracing a hard Brexit. You don’t like it? Leave. If I was a Machiavellian, English nationalist who didn’t care about Northern Ireland, that’s what I’d do.

Unionists will point to Scotland here. Say that Britain will never call a poll because Scotland will demand the same. If Reform get into power, do you really think they’ll care about conventions and the rule of law? Look at the U.S. Trump, Farage’s mate, is outright ignoring orders from the highest court in the land. Reform could call a border poll, toss Northern Ireland to the side and deny Scotland the same option.

Any unionist who thinks Reform are friends is naïve beyond belief. The party is toxic to nationalists and the middle ground. They will only drive people in Northern Ireland to consider other options.

Nationalists shouldn’t be jubilant either. Many have banked on offering a choice to voters: a conservative, right wing United Kingdom or a liberal, progressive United Ireland. That choice won’t exist if Europe lurches further to the right. Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen push fascism inside the European Union while thousands march against migration in Dublin. Sinn Fein, caught off guard by the rightward shift, are moving to the centre.

Some nationalists are in denial about racism within their community. They believe racism is something exclusive to unionism. Now, the far right is on the move in the south. They march against migrants and refugees, aligned with people who think my family and I are planters. There won’t be a progressive united Ireland unless these people are challenged head on.

I’m not predicting a Farage premiership. Events can change at the drop of a hat.  Labour could win the next general election with a slither of a majority. If Reform can’t deliver in local government, maybe their support will disappear.

Whatever happens, Reform have reshaped the political landscape. Nothing good will come of this. Farage poses joyfully for photos with Trump, an adjudicated rapist who bragged about sexually assaulting women. The “radical right” wants democracy to disappear.

None of this was inevitable. Labour didn’t have to attack the elderly and the disabled. They don’t have to push misery on the country. The Tories didn’t have to implement austerity and plunder the country’s public services.

We don’t have to live like this. Economists, activists and policy makers are clear that the UK could take another path. Rachel Reeves doesn’t have to follow her stupid fiscal rules. We don’t need another decade of austerity. People are desperate for a better society. The future is bleak if politicians don’t accept this.

The growth of Reform aligns with the breakdown in the social contract. This country has never been perfect but there used to be some certainties. If you worked hard, you would have enough money to rent or own your own home, raise your children and live a half decent life. You paid your taxes into the system to fund public services and provide a safety net to the less fortunate.

Today, our tax burden is higher than ever, and public services are a mess. Wages have stagnated. Young people struggle to rent and own a home. Thousands languish on the waiting list for housing and basic healthcare. I speak to people every day who work hard and still can’t afford to make ends meet at the end of the month.

Neo-liberalism has destroyed the health service, the housing system and public services. Racists have stepped in, putting the blame squarely on migrants, refugees and asylum seekers. Their lies have seeped into public consciousness.

I hear complaints about immigration every day. The complaining isn’t confined to one community or the other. Everybody does it. I even hear complaints from migrants. I’ve heard refugees blame other refugees.

The housing system is in freefall. We’re not building enough social housing. The private rented sector is closed off to people on benefits and low incomes. The Housing Executive is struggling to find temporary accommodation to meet demand. There was a crisis before immigration numbers climbed but, undoubtedly, the higher numbers are having an impact. 

The government spends $4.5bn housing asylum seekers in hotels. The cost is high because the Home Office takes years to assess claims. It used to take months but the Tories, through sheer incompetence, ground the system to a halt. Labour is now offering private landlords a five-year guarantee to house asylum seekers through the private company, Serco.

Across the UK, people sleep in their cars and on the street, unable to obtain assistance from their local housing authority. They are British, Irish, migrants and refugees (who are at the mercy of their local housing authority once they get legal status in the UK). Many languish in hotels and B&Bs on the other side of the country. Single parents with 3 or four children all crammed into one room. Cancer patients travelling hours a day to get medical treatment on the other side of Northern Ireland. Many sofa surf, moving from house to house every night, their safety and dignity beholden to the kindness of strangers.

If you are suffering under the housing system, you will read that figure of £4.5bn and feel nothing but anger. Many asylum seekers complain about the conditions inside hotels, but that doesn’t matter to somebody sleeping on their friend’s sofa. The government has money to put people in hotels and says it doesn’t have money to help them. They’re losing access to PIP. Their granny is losing her winter fuel allowance. The private landlord down the road says they need to earn £40K to rent one of his houses.

The problem isn’t migrants or refugees, the problem is the lie. The lie that you must suffer. That there is no money to help you while the government spends billions on wars and gives tax breaks to banks. This is the lie that breeds fascism.

During the local election campaign, Labour painted Farage as a liar . The biggest liars in the country run Downing Street. Starmer ran on change and offers nothing but the same. Labour have no principles. They believe in nothing and everyone knows it.

There is a warning here for everyone, unionist, nationalist and neither: when voters are disillusioned with the status quo, when they lose faith in government, a stick of dynamite starts to look appealing. If a choice is offered, voters will press the button.