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Reminder that the polls in Florida have closed and https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/florida-2022-primary-election-results/story?id=88696505″>the results are pouring in!
Here are the key primaries we’re watching:
- Governor: Democrats will choose either Rep. Charlie Crist or Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in what looks to be an https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/florida/”>uphill race for Democrats this fall. Crist is a https://www.nga.org/governor/charlie-crist/”>former Republican governor and https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2014&fips=12&f=0&off=5&elect=0″>lost in 2014 as the Democratic nominee for governor, but https://floridapolitics.com/archives/549748-final-poll-charlie-crist-headed-to-victory-in-florida-democratic-primary-for-governor/”>he’s led in https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1557353944153833473?s=20&t=DBJ-ay5-9XKEdENFpJc6Ag”>most polling and has had https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2022/08/18/the-wave-of-television-ads-ahead-of-florida-primary-00052579″>the financial upper hand over Fried, who is the https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/11/18/this-is-how-nikki-fried-won-the-only-statewide-office-for-democrats/”>only Democrat to win a statewide race since 2012.
- 1st District: In Florida’s panhandle, Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz faces potentially serious primary opposition in https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/27/sex-trafficking-allegations-matt-gaetz/”>the wake of an ongoing federal investigation into whether he engaged in sexual activities with a 17-year-old girl and paid for women to cross state lines to have sex. Former FedEx executive Mark Lombardo has tried to use the scandal against Gaetz, running ads tying Gaetz’s investigation https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/mar/31/facebook-posts/yes-matt-gaetz-was-lone-no-vote-human-trafficking-/”>to his lone dissenting vote on a 2017 human trafficking bill signed into law by Trump.
- 4th District: Redistricting did away with a plurality-Black district in northern Florida, and this new R+15 seat situated around Jacksonville will probably elect a Republican in the fall. The GOP primary between state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean and Navy veteran Erick Aguilar looks to favor Bean, who’s led in https://floridapolitics.com/archives/547865-poll-anna-paulina-luna-holds-narrow-lead-over-kevin-hayslett-in-cd-13-gop-primary/”>the polls. Aguilar https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/04/2022/”>has outraised Bean, but Bean’s allies https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2022&id=FL04″>have made up for this with more than $1 million in outside spending.
- 7th District: Redistricting shifted this seat, which sits north of Orlando, all the way from D+5 to R+14. Perhaps in anticipation of this, Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy https://rollcall.com/2021/12/20/citing-personal-sacrifice-rep-stephanie-murphy-wont-run-again/”>retired in December, and the crowded GOP primary to succeed her appears to be a three-man race between Army veteran and businessman Cory Mills, state Rep. Anthony Sabatini and former Navy SEAL and Christian missionary Brady Duke. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/548692-c/”>Mills and Sabatini have https://floridapolitics.com/archives/545109-poll-cory-mills-holds-slim-edge-over-anthony-sabatini-in-cd-7/”>led in the polls, albeit only with voteshares in the low-to-mid 20s, while Duke has https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/07/2022/”>led the fundraising race.
- 10th District: There’s a crowded Democratic primary in this deep-blue seat following Rep. Val Demings’s decision to run for Senate. Gun-safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost may be the front-runner, as https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL10259/?cycle=2022&election_full=true”>he’s raised the most money ($1.5 million) and has benefited from $1.4 million https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2022&id=FL10″>in outside spending support, which have given him the resources to highlight his https://www.npr.org/2022/07/06/1109193929/the-first-gen-z-candidates-are-running-for-congress-and-running-against-compromi”>progressive views and https://youtu.be/aiQlabyqzPM”>his multiethnic background. But the field is crowded and also includes state Sen. Randolph Bracy, pastor Terence Gray and two controversial blasts from the past in former Reps. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/19/7-amazing-sentences-that-have-actually-been-written-about-congresss-most-bizarre-member/”>Alan Grayson and https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/politics/2022/06/16/corrine-brown-running-again-congress-central-florida/7646594001/”>Corrine Brown.
- 11th District: West of Orlando, the GOP primary for this R+19 seat features a contest between Rep. Daniel Webster and far-right activist Laura Loomer, who has called herself a “https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/8/19/21375159/laura-loomer-congress-republican-florida-trump-explainer”>proud Islamophobe” and has been banned by multiple social media platforms. As an incumbent, Webster is favored, but we can’t rule out Loomer surprising him: Webster currently represents only about a third of this seat following redistricting, and Loomer https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/11/2022/”>has raised more money than he has.
- 13th District: Crist left this Tampa Bay-area seat behind to run for governor, and redistricting shifted it from R+1 to R+12, making the Republican primary the main contest to watch here. At one point, Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna https://sunshinesummit.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Florida-Battleground-CD-Brushfires_7-13-22.pdf”>looked to be the front-runner, as she’d given Crist https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/elections/2020/11/03/florida-13th-district-crist-takes-early-lead-over-luna/”>a close race in 2020 and https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/09/14/trump-endorses-anna-paulina-luna-in-gop-primary-for-pinellas-house-seat/”>has Trump’s endorsement. But https://floridapolitics.com/archives/547865-poll-anna-paulina-luna-holds-narrow-lead-over-kevin-hayslett-in-cd-13-gop-primary/”>recent polling suggests attorney Kevin Hayslett could upend Luna in the primary, as he’s sought to present himself as the https://youtu.be/5sMdmGi1OUo”>Trumpier of the two candidates in what https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0FL13158/?cycle=2022&election_full=true”>has turned into a https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2022&id=FL13″>very expensive race.
- 15th District: This newly drawn R+7 seat east of Tampa could be competitive, but its crowded GOP primary will probably pick the district’s next member. Former Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee may have emerged as the favorite over state Sen. Kelli Stargel and state Rep. Jackie Toledo. Both Lee and Stargel have received https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2022&id=FL15&spec=N”>sizable outside support, as Lee’s side https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2022/08/01/how-republican-candidates-are-using-desantis-00048860″>has played up her ties to DeSantis, who is popular among Republicans, while Stargel and her allies have tried to cast Lee https://youtu.be/Eujxft-_AMc”>as weak on election security.
- 20th District: Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is defending this deep-blue, plurality-Black seat after winning it in a January special election. But in the special election primary, https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-chefilus-mccormick-holness-primary-rematch-20220815-jn4mivcxojfghj2xpp3dvxf734-story.html”>she defeated former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness by just five votes, and now Holness is back for a rematch. This time, though, Cherfilus-McCormick has a https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/20/2022/”>huge financial edge and looks favored to retain the seat.
- 23rd District: This D+9 seat opened up after Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch announced https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/politics/ted-deutch-retiring-congressman-florida/index.html”>he will resign this fall, and Democrats are now picking between Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz and Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen. Moskowitz looks to be favored https://floridapolitics.com/archives/539582-ben-sorensen-faces-fec-fine-jared-moskowitz-crosses-1m-in-cd-23-race/”>based on his endorsements and his edge in the money race, both https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/23/2022/”>in terms of fundraising and https://www.opensecrets.org/races/outside-spending?cycle=2022&id=FL23&spec=N”>outside support. Still, Sorensen https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-congress-democratic-primary-moskowitz-sorensen-20220812-ojbqndcxgbdj3bpywc6ha75pci-story.html”>has tried to paint Moskowitz as too chummy with DeSantis, who is anathema to Florida Democrats.
- 27th District: Democrats face an uphill battle against first-term Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar, who is Cuban American, in this heavily Latino district in Miami, but state Sen. Annette Taddeo and Miami Commissioner Ken Russell are fighting for the Democratic nomination https://floridapolitics.com/archives/542685-survey-finds-annette-taddeo-within-striking-distance-of-maria-elvira-salazar-in-cd-27/”>in the hopes of https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/USTL-FL27-Toplines.pdf”>springing an upset. Taddeo looks favored, https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8FL00034/?cycle=2022&election_full=true”>as she had nearly twice as much money https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2FL27089/?cycle=2022&election_full=true”>as Russell for the final stretch of the campaign and https://floridapolitics.com/archives/530456-a-tireless-fighter-annette-taddeo-welcomes-first-wave-of-endorsements-for-u-s-house-bid/”>has racked up far more endorsements from Florida and national groups.
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