Chico Khan-Gandapur: The Conservative Party brand must shift with behavioural science | Conservative Home

Chico Khan-Gandapur is a managing partner at Metrica Consulting.

Local Tory association chairs are scratching their heads in frustration, so much so that some have very little hair left.

With fewer than 160 days until next May’s elections, current national polling at 16 per cent – YouGov, November 2 – casts a pall over local Party ambitions.  More concerning, a recent leaked mega-poll by Stack Data Strategy suggests the Party could be reduced to just 14 seats if an election were held now.

These figures contrast starkly with the heady days of, “Big-Dog” Boris Johnson, and his 2019 general election victory, when he secured 13.95 million votes, a 43.6 per cent share.

Today’s polling would translate to just 4.6 million votes (adjusted for 2024 turnout), a decline of over 9 million since Big-Dog prevailed. Twice as many voters have abandoned the oldest and most successful political party in modern history, than intend to vote for it currently.

What has caused this extraordinary vote collapse?

Analysis by Perplexity AI highlights the following 10 primary voter concerns, in order of their significance:

• A lack of trust in the Party
• Perceived incompetence in government
• Scandals, especially around Partygate and PPE
• Failure to deliver on election promises
• That 2022 Budget
• The Party no longer represents traditional Tory voters
• Poor leadership, with too many changes
• Being out of touch with everyday people
• Dissatisfaction with immigration policies
• Belief the Party serves the benefit of the wealthy only

Further investigation shows:

• Voter support drops significantly from those aged under 65 years, and is extremely low in Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black British and mixed ethnic communities
• Reform performs better than Conservatives in every age bucket

This wholesale abandonment and ongoing voter indifference to the Conservative brand is not simply a, “we are fed up” moment, or a “protest” vote; rather, it reflects deeper, more structural issues. Traditional attempts to understand this challenge and turn it around have floundered.

The breakthrough lies in analysing this situation through the lens of behavioural science. Viewed this way, the picture becomes much clearer. Former Tory voters feel so deeply let down that they are extremely reluctant to support the Party again, regardless of any rational appeals made to them.

Their behaviour bears all the hallmarks of a marital separation, or even divorce. Those who have endured such painful episodes will recognise the parallels. Pleas for reconciliation are more often than not rebuffed as historic disappointments have become deeply entrenched.

This revised understanding explains the Party’s lacklustre polling, and why voters are choosing other parties – in context, new partners. This, despite a positive annual conference, barnstorming PMQ performances – including the takedown of the Chancellor after her budget – and a raft of new and exciting policies.

Fortunately, the same science which illuminates the root causes of this polling standoff, also provides proven strategies to reverse it. However, success will demand genuine change from the Party and authentic implementation.

The Steps outlined below, one to five, offer real hope.

Step One: The Great Tory Voter Divorce

Anyone who has experienced separation and divorce knows reconciling with former partners – former voters, in this context – presents formidable challenges. Yet behavioural science addresses these head-on and urges the Party to:

• Understand and reconnect with voters’ motivations, values and goals
• Rebuild trust through authentic commitment to match them with consistent policies, actions and behaviour
• Acknowledge past shortcomings by demonstrating progress, rather than by endless apologising
• Practise active listening via forums or channels where voters feel heard and their concerns acknowledged
• Maintain positive and emotional sensitivity through warmth and humour
• Foster community and identity by promoting belonging and inclusion
• Personalise communication to resonate with specific voter groups and issues
• Leverage social proof through endorsements from respected business and community leaders

The Party will succeed only when all its efforts are perceived by voters as being genuine and in earnest, that is:

• Truthful, committed, serious, with a deep sense of responsibility and integrity
• Authentic, reliable, humble, hardworking, guided by a strong moral compass, and respectful of others
• Demonstrated through open communication and dedication to its goals

These are qualities voters believe the Conservatives lost during their 14 years in power, and must now regain to become electable. Importantly, these initiatives demand significantly scaled-up personal contact, through doorstep meetings or at public venues, alongside carefully curated social media engagement.

The scale and nature of this schism must not be underestimated. The unprecedented decline in Tory voter numbers requires equally bold measures to reverse it.

Interestingly, data from behavioural analysis suggests individuals take on average, one to two years to recover from an episode of grief, whether separation, divorce, or death.

With upcoming May elections falling 22 months after the last, voter mindsets could be open to Conservatives again, but only if these five steps are fully implemented.

Step Two: What Do Tories Stand for These Days?

This is a frequent question on the doorstep, one that canvassers struggle to answer. Consider, for instance:

• The electorate endured 5 very different Conservative prime ministers: some fiscally tight, others loose; some pro-Brexit, others opposed; and from diverse factions across the Party
• Voters lack a simple short cut, or emotional message to connect with who Conservatives are, or what they stand for
• In evidence of this, there is no centrally available, clear and concise description of the Party’s current values and principles – not even on its official website
• In marketing-speak, Conservatives are a tarnished brand, and in need of refurbishment
• To that end, the Party would benefit immensely from issuing a clear Statement of Values, a foundation for all its policies and marketing messages, to help it reconnect with voters
• It must be centrally curated, unambiguous, accessible and appealing across all ages, ethnicities and socio-economic groups

Laudably, in 2024, Robert Jenrick tried to tackle this exact challenge in his article, “Conservatives must have core principles around which we can unite”. While it captured many Tory beliefs and convictions, it felt clunky and uninspiring, and it risked miring the Party in historic and divisive topics again, such as Remain versus Brexit. What is needed is something fresh, appealing and inclusive that avoids future infighting.

An approach similar to the AGENDA47 framework could offer that solution. A straightforward statement of 20 or so core values and policy initiatives which mark the Party out, while sidestepping complex debates like sovereignty versus subsidiarity.

Alternatively, a pledge card highlighting upbeat and inclusive virtues such as opportunity and aspiration, exemplified by the Party’s new suite of policies, could also be effective.

Whatever form it takes, swift implementation is essential to close this gap. It would help both reconnect the Party with voters, and unify it internally.

Step three: Policy Initiatives

All future Conservative policies must build on and exemplify its new Statement of Values, but this essay will focus on just one, Reform of the House of Lords. Yes, you read that right. Nothing would demonstrate more clearly the Party’s departure from its past shortcomings than this initiative.

Perceptions of cronyism, unwarranted patronage, and being stuck in the past, have long plagued the Conservatives, but this commitment would instantly symbolise its return to modern and principled politics.

The House of Lords remains a deeply archaic institution, desperately needing modernisation to address:

• Its lack of democratic legitimacy
• Its failure to represent the country as a whole
• The presence of unqualified and permanent members, such as hereditary peers and bishops
• The need for greater effectiveness and accountability
• Clarification of its relationship to the House of Commons
• Its widespread image as a cosy club for the privileged few

Overhauling it would signal overnight that Conservatives have transformed themselves, too.

Step four: Branding and Messaging Gaps

Conservatives face significant branding and messaging challenges.

It is not what they include that pose the problem. It’s the gaps created by what and who they leave out and any unanticipated implications they convey. Specifically:

• Gaps in Conservatives branding and messaging reflect voter concerns which remain unaddressed
• These unaddressed voter concerns create political space which others can exploit, and have done so to the Party’s detriment
• Closing these spaces is essential for retaining existing voters and wining new ones
• Step 2 above argues for a clear articulation of what Conservatives stand for currently
• But even when completed, current Party messaging will still lack any inclusivity and warmth to win help back 9mln unhappy ex-spouses
• The current “Stronger Economy and Borders” strapline while addressing two key voter priorities, also creates problems
• For example, parts of the BAME community which make up 43 per cent of London’s voters, perceive the borders and deportation messaging as being prejudicial to them
• Are Conservatives unwittingly alienating large sections of potential voters from the outset ?
• Similarly, what about those voter concerns beyond the economy and borders ? The Party will need to accommodate these as well
• This challenge is repeated in the absence of any local focus within national messaging, despite the May elections being for local authorities

How can these challenges be mitigated? Below, are several suggestions showing how simple adjustments to the Party’s current branding and messaging, can have profoundly positive impacts.

Slides one and two encapsulate what the Conservatives might stand for:  For you, Your Family, Your Community.

These recommendations tackle the inclusivity challenge head-on, as well as encompassing a subtle, “For Unity”, message through differentiated colouring. Slide two emphasises the virtue of inclusion, as each additional level represents a larger grouping within which the prior ones fall. Both culminate in the Conservatives logo as the common inclusive denominator for everyone.

The inclusivity theme is continued.  To the existing “Stronger Economy, Stronger Borders” strapline, either of the words, “Country” or “Britain”, can be added, Slide three below. This emphasises national unity, and stylistically echoes the “Stronger Together” strapline, from the Scottish Referendum campaign.

You will also notice the old “tree” symbol has been “torched”.  The torch symbol is active and inspiring, captures the colours of the Union Jack, and has much greater appeal to younger voters than the passive tree.

In the final suggestion, Slide four above, the Party’s commitment to relevant policy initiatives is highlighted.

This list has been taken from the Policy Renewal section on the Party’s website, and the recommendation, Reform of the House of Lords, has been added to the bottom. This format can easily be adapted to highlight any future Statement of Values, or a Pledge card.

Doorstep conversations about all these suggestions have been unanimously positive and encouraging.

Step five: Communications and Media

To succeed in its communication, the Party must:

• Apply the guidance and insights provided by behavioural analysis
• Use a small number of clear, relevant, specific and accessible messages consistently across traditional leaflets, social media, newsprint, television and radio
• Enhance CPHQ’s role in tailoring central messages for local associations, ensuring national consistency while allowing local expression
• Match the right speaker to the relevant audience in any given forum
• Incorporate humour and warmth, where suitable, to connect better with voters

To be effective and gain widespread voter traction, these messages must then reach:

• The full spectrum of age groups
• Diverse ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds
• Multiple platforms such as TikTok, LinkedIn, and YouTube
• Voters individually, through a dramatic increase in face-to-face meetings

Many of these challenges were evident recently at an annual speaking event for A-level Politics students held at the Methodist Central Hall, London. The Conservatives sent one of their heavyweights, Jacob Rees-Mogg, an acknowledged intellectual and successful businessman.

However, student feedback confirmed he lived up to his nickname, the “Honourable member for the 18^th century”, addressing issues 18 year olds felt were disconnected from their reality.

Where was the relevant speaker, the appropriate messaging, and the use of warmth and humour? One Tory mother even wrote to Kemi Badenoch to express her frustration at this oversight. In contrast, the Greens sent Zack Polanski, who received an ovation. Lesson learnt ?

Summary

Conservatives face unprecedented challenges, shunned by voters after a legacy of 14 eventful and awful years. If they are to move forward, they would do well to implement the insights afforded to them from the application of behavioural science.

Only then can they present themselves as credible and earnest individuals, within a relevant and rejuvenated party, capable of shaping the future with well thought out and trustworthy alternatives.