Asia’s Equity Markets Face Reality Check Amid $10 Billion Outflow and AI Valuation Concerns – Thailand Business News

The first week of November delivered a sharp reality check for Asia’s equity markets. After months of euphoria powered by artificial intelligence (AI)-linked megacaps, investors hit the brakes, pulling over $10.18 billion from regional equities across Taiwan, South Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Main Insights

• Big Money Left the Room: The first week of November saw a massive $10.18 billion pulled out of Asian stocks (Taiwan, South Korea, India, etc.). This is a huge flip from the $2.28 billion they put in during October.
• AI Rally Got Questioned: It’s not just cashing out; investors are debating if the whole AI-fueled stock boom has gotten ahead of itself.
• The AI Hardware Hubs Got Hit Hardest:
  • South Korea lost $5.05 billion—basically erasing its October gains.
  • Taiwan saw $3.86 billion in outflows.
  • These countries are the go-to plays for the AI supply chain, so they’re super sensitive to any shift in tech sentiment.
• Tech Stocks Are Cooling: The main Asian and global IT indexes dropped around 4.2% to 4.4%. This is a reality check after a crazy 62.5% run-up in six months.

This signifies a sharp turnaround from the $2.28 billion in net purchases registered in October, as per LSEG data. This shift goes beyond mere profit-taking; it underscores a broader debate now dominating global markets: has the AI rally outpaced its fundamental value?

AI Loses Some Shine

Cross-border redemptions were most pronounced in markets deeply tied to the AI hardware supply chain, where investors moved swiftly to unwind positions. 

South Korea recorded $5.05 billion in foreign outflows, effectively erasing the $4.21 billion inflows it received in October. Taiwan experienced a similar reversal, with $3.86 billion in net foreign sales, an acceleration from the $3.21 billion outflow seen the previous month.

These markets operate as high-beta proxies for the global AI supercycle, making them particularly sensitive to shifts in sentiment. 

The recent correction in tech benchmarks reflects that vulnerability: the MSCI Asia ex-Japan IT index fell 4.23%, while the MSCI global IT index declined 4.38% over the same period. Together, the pullback highlights growing investor caution toward valuations that had soared 62.5% in just six months, an extraordinary run now facing its first real test.

Valuations Near Multi-Year Highs

The broader MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index is now trading at a 12-month forward PE of 15.81, its highest level since June 2021. That alone doesn’t signal a bubble, but it does highlight the level of perfection currently priced in.

As UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele noted, the fundamentals are not collapsing. Global tech earnings are still projected to grow 15% in 2025 and another 12.5% in 2026. But investors are increasingly unwilling to pay the premium that AI hype commanded earlier this year.

India: The Underweight that Markets May Rethink

India also joined the week’s losers, recording $1.42 billion in foreign outflows after securing $1.66 billion in inflows in October. According to HSBC, India is now the largest underweight in global emerging markets (GEM) portfolios, with only 25% of the funds tracked holding overweight positions.

Yet analysts continue to argue that India remains a compelling diversification play, an “AI hedge” offering lower correlation to tech-heavy North Asian markets. For investors uneasy about AI valuation risks, India’s domestic-demand-driven growth story could regain appeal in early 2026.

Southeast Asia: Mixed Signals

• The Big Picture – Why Asia is Still Central:
  • Pros (Growth Drivers): The AI infrastructure boom means multi-year orders for North Asian chip makers. Domestic spending (especially in India/Indonesia) is a huge buffer. Plus, companies are moving manufacturing to places like Vietnam and Thailand to diversify away from China.
  • Cons (Headwinds): Overvaluation risk in Taiwan/South Korea. Ongoing US-China tensions mess with tech and investment flows. Plus, different central banks are doing different things (some boosting growth, others fighting inflation).

Southeast Asia delivered a more nuanced picture, with foreign investors sending mixed signals across the region. The pattern of flows reflected a blend of caution, selective risk-taking, and a renewed search for relative value. 

Vietnam posted $95 million in outflows, as investors trimmed exposure amid concerns over slower export momentum and lingering property-sector vulnerabilities. 

Thailand also saw modest net outflows of $40 million, underscoring persistent hesitancy driven by political uncertainty and weaker-than-expected domestic demand.

In contrast, Indonesia attracted a robust $207 million in inflows, reaffirming its position as one of the region’s most resilient investment destinations. 

Strong commodity earnings, rising fiscal credibility, and an ambitious reform agenda, including incentives for downstream industrialization, continue to draw long-term capital. 

The Philippines also recorded inflows of $77 million, buoyed by improving macroeconomic stability, moderating inflation, and a strengthening narrative around relative value as investors rotate toward markets with healthier fundamentals and more attractive valuations.

Taken together, ASEAN markets illustrate a region where foreign investors are becoming more selective, rewarding policy stability and structural reform, while moving away from economies facing cyclical headwinds or unresolved policy risks.

The Bigger Picture: Growth Catalysts vs. Market Headwinds

Asia’s equity landscape is entering a new phase defined by a delicate balance between powerful structural growth drivers and increasingly visible macro-financial risks. 

The region remains central to the global investment story, but the forces shaping performance are becoming more complex and uneven. 

On one hand, long-term catalysts continue to strengthen Asia’s economic foundation; on the other, new challenges threaten to disrupt capital flows and expose valuation vulnerabilities.

On the growth side, the AI infrastructure boom remains one of Asia’s most transformative tailwinds. Demand for semiconductors, advanced foundry capacity, and high-performance memory chips continues to surge, securing multi-year order pipelines for key North Asian producers. 

This structural momentum is not merely cyclical, it reflects a reconfiguration of global computing power and enterprise AI investment that will keep Asia at the center of the technology supply chain for years to come. 

Complementing this is the rise in domestic consumption, particularly in India and Indonesia, where expanding middle classes are generating some of the world’s highest consumer-spending growth rates. 

These markets provide an important buffer against external shocks and support a more balanced earnings outlook. Meanwhile, reindustrialization and supply-chain diversification are accelerating across Southeast Asia. 

Vietnam and Thailand have emerged as leading beneficiaries of manufacturing shifts away from China, attracting steady inflows from multinationals seeking cost efficiency, geopolitical insulation, and greater operational resilience.

Yet these opportunities coexist with significant challenges. Overvaluation risk looms large in tech-heavy markets such as Taiwan and South Korea, where earnings must continue to expand at a rapid clip to justify elevated multiples. 

Even a modest cooling in momentum could trigger further corrections. The geopolitical overhang adds another layer of uncertainty, as persistent U.S., China tensions influence capital allocation decisions, impede technology transfer, and shape strategic investment flows across the region. At the same time, the region faces increasing policy divergence. 

While some central banks are focused on supporting growth, others are tightening to control inflation or stabilize their currencies, creating an uneven policy environment that complicates cross-border investment strategies. 

Finally, foreign-flow fragility remains a critical vulnerability. The sharp outflows recorded this month highlight how quickly sentiment can shift when global risk appetite softens, underscoring Asia’s sensitivity to external macro signals and investor positioning.

Together, these dynamics illustrate a continent at a crossroads, one where structural strengths continue to drive optimism, but where volatility and policy uncertainty demand greater precision, selectivity, and risk management from global investors.

The $10 billion outflow is significant, but it is not a repudiation of Asia’s growth trajectory. Rather, it signals that investors are recalibrating positions amid stretched valuations and complex global signals.

The AI narrative remains intact, but the market is entering a more discerning phase, rewarding fundamentals over hype. For professional investors, this transition may open opportunities in markets and sectors that were overshadowed during the AI stampede.