As geopolitical conflict risks intensify, all parties seek opportunities amid crisis through strategic moves

By Gan Tian, Guan Na

(ECNS) — Looking back at 2025, the international landscape was marked by intertwined transformations and conflicts, with geopolitical tensions flaring up in various regions.

The Middle East was engulfed in flames, Gaza struggled to heal its deep wounds; conflicts persisted between Thailand and Cambodia; Russia-Ukraine peace talks faced twists and turns; the political situations in Japan and South Korea are highly volatile; and frictions re-emerged between Japan and South Korea, etc.

As we step into the new year, will conflicts and frictions ease? How will different countries make their strategic moves? And what direction will the international situation take?

Regarding a series of hot international issues, the China News Network specially invited experts from both China and abroad to the latest W.E. Talk.

Benjamin Norton, founder of the Geopolitical Economy Report and a U.S. foreign policy expert, pointed out that humanity is currently in “a time of war and conflict,” and in 2026, more geopolitical conflicts might emerge with risks of local wars likely to intensify.

Su Hao, founding director of the Center for Strategy and Peace Studies from China Foreign Affairs University, believes that overall, the international situation in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of “coexistence of division and integration, with two-way interactions,” and that regional situations may enter a “shock-absorbing state.”

However, due to the U.S. clinging to hegemonic thinking and the rise of far-right forces in some countries, the world may face new conflicts, stated Su, also associate dean of the Institute of Global Governance and Development of Renmin University of China during the interview.

Concerns: turmoil, division, and risks

In 2025, certain countries have been fanning the flames and creating chaos around the world — by condoning Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, applying extreme pressure on Venezuela, or increasing military deployments in the Caribbean region. Such hegemonic ambitions have been laid bare, and their actions of shifting troubles onto others have drawn widespread criticism.

Now, as we enter the new year, the two experts believe that the world still faces many uncertainties and the risk of turmoil and division.

Su said that in Latin America, the U.S. is conspicuously enhancing military deterrence, and the possibility of armed conflicts cannot be ruled out in the future; in Europe, numerous issues arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict urgently need resolution; in the Asia-Pacific, the situation on the Korean Peninsula remains complex and tense. Additionally, new crises may erupt in Africa.

Norton also expressed particular concern about the tense situation in Venezuela. He noted that the U.S.’s dangerous actions could potentially trigger a larger-scale war in Latin America.

“The world does not want to be dragged back into the 19th century, into this horrific time of colonialism. The US’s pursuit of the ‘Monroe Doctrine’ clearly infringes upon the sovereignty of Latin American countries,” the U.S. expert said.

Norton further pointed out that, “Moreover, the U.S. is inciting conflicts and wars in other parts of the world.”

“All of the evidence suggests that unless the U.S. abandons this hegemonic mentality that seeks conflict around the world and tries to impose hegemony, unless the U.S. recognizes that we’re in a multi-polar world and other countries deserve sovereignty and self determination, and unless all of the rules and laws defined by international law are clearly held up and reinforced, I’m afraid we’ll continue to see the rule of the jungle. And I’m afraid that we’ll see a few countries seeking hegemony and violating international law and violating the UN Charter,” he stated.

So what lies behind the various actions of the United States? In Norton’s view, the U.S. faces numerous economic issues and inequalities domestically. Against this backdrop, the U.S. government attempts to divert American public attention from domestic problems by engaging in foreign conflicts, while blaming so-called external interference.

Alarming: right-wing resonance and dangerous shifts

Looking ahead at the future international situation, Norton and Su noted that intertwined pressures such as immigration issues and economic development are fueling the spread of far-right ideologies in Western countries and some developing nations.

According to the two experts, there is even a phenomenon of resonance between right-wing forces in Europe and the U.S., posing multiple impacts on the international political and economic landscape.

Su stated that Trump’s rise to power signifies an overall conservative shift in U.S. politics, and that the “America First” values he upholds carry strong nationalist and even populist overtones, while across the Atlantic, right-wing political forces are growing in countries from Germany and Hungary to Italy. In his view, Europe may even witness an overall trend of “shifting to the right in the future.”

They particularly pointed out that Japan’s political spectrum has shown a clear rightward tilt, and that such a dangerous shift may well persist.

Norton said that extreme politicians in Japan are attempting to interfere in China’s internal affairs and revive militarism, potentially dragging the world back into conflict and war. “This poses a serious threat not only to the Chinese people but also to people across the Asia-Pacific region.”

Su further pointed out that, “Based on misjudgments about China-U.S. relations and China’s strength, Japan believes it can take the opportunity to strengthen its military and rise again. However, such strategic thinking is not only irrational but extremely dangerous, marked by distinct opportunism.”

“Given the close economic ties between China and Japan, the series of actions by (Japanese Prime Minister) Sanae Takaichi undoubtedly creates significant uncertainty for Japan’s economic development and has faced opposition from various quarters within Japan. Japan’s strategic ambitions are unlikely to be realized,” stated the Chinese expert.

Moreover, China possesses strong military capabilities and comprehensive national strength as support, said Su during the interview, “Japan will not be able to stir up major waves in the future, and the security situation in Asia remains generally controllable.”

Outlook: Seizing opportunities amid crisis

Looking around the world, trade protectionism, militarism, and right-wing ideologies are on the rise, leading to drastic changes in the international political and economic landscape. Moving forward, how can countries navigate the waves and turn crises into opportunities?

In Norton’s opinion, the world has reached a “dangerous moment.” He called for further unity and cooperation among the Global South, firmly upholding the international order based on international law, maintaining the basic norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter, and steadfastly advancing an equal and orderly multipolar world.

Norton particularly hoped that China would continue to deepen cooperation with Global South countries in 2026, promote the implementation of the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative, and Global Governance Initiative, support multilateralism, and safeguard a multi-polar international system.

Su stated that if 2025 represents a crossroads for human society, “then in 2026, the future direction of human society will gradually become clearer.”

The Chinese expert further pointed out that on one hand, in 2026, the international situation may exhibit characteristics of “coexistence of division and integration, with two-way interactions,” and that regional situations may enter a “shock-absorbing state.”

In his view, although fragmentation trends and local conflicts may persist, significant changes may occur in the international political and economic landscape through a series of strategic interactions. The world can seek opportunities within crises to achieve a “metamorphosis,” which is breaking the old patterns so that the contours of a new international order can gradually emerge.

On the other hand, Su pointed out that the trend in international political development may shift from “the politicization of civilization” to “the civilization of politics.”

“Western countries have politicized or even ideologized civilization, turning it into a ‘big stick’ to suppress others everywhere, leading to political divisions in the world. Such a strategy has actually backfired, weakening their own national strength. Some countries, including the United States, have realized this and are adjusting their national security strategies,” Su said.

He expressed belief that in the future, with the accelerated development of a multipolar world, unipolar hegemony will become history, and the Global South will reshape the world economic landscape. The pace of “moving eastward” will continue to accelerate, with Asia expected to play an important role, becoming a driving force in leading world economic growth.