For a leader whose toxicity over a horrific killing made him a pariah, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has come a remarkably long way.
On Tuesday night, the kingdom‘s 40-year-old crown prince, known as MBS, was feted by U.S. President Donald Trump at a black-tie state banquet at the White House — a day after Trump announced the U.S. would sell Saudi Arabia the world’s most advanced military aircraft, the F-35.
It completed what some analysts have likened to a “comeback tour” — a reset that could also have major implications for Canada.
“This is a country that is too big, too important regionally, too important globally,” said Dennis Horak, who was Canada’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 2015-18.
“Under the current circumstances, with Canada looking to diversify its economic partnerships and look for different sources of investment, Saudi Arabia is absolutely too big to ignore.”
Trump’s role in crown prince’s rehabilitation
It was seven years ago, in October 2018, that Saudi agents lying in wait at their country’s Turkish consulate in Istanbul used a bone saw to cut up the body of Washington Post columnist and MBS critic Jamal Khashoggi after he was strangled to death, investigators found.
The Saudi government called Khashoggi’s killing a “rogue operation,” but U.S. intelligence agencies believe the hit could not have happened without MBS’s authorization.
Trump, however, indicated he believes otherwise.
When faced with an awkward question from a journalist about Khashoggi’s killing at an Oval Office press conference on Tuesday, with MBS sitting right beside him, Trump instead belittled the victim and gave his guest cover.
“A lot of people didn’t like that gentleman that you’re talking about. Whether you like him or didn’t like him, things happen. But he [MBS] knew nothing about it.”
While many Western countries quickly put as much distance as they could between themselves and the unpredictable crown prince, Canada’s relationship was frostier than most.
Two months earlier, a spat over human rights, punctuated by calls from Canada to release imprisoned Saudi activists, escalated into a full-blown diplomatic rift. It led to Horak’s expulsion as the ambassador in Riyadh and the effective elimination of diplomatic ties for the next five years.
While then-U.S. president Joe Biden took the first step in the crown prince’s redemption by fist-bumping MBS in 2022, it was Trump who put the process on the fast track.
In his second term, the U.S. president made Saudi Arabia the highlight of his first international trip in May with a lavish visit to Riyadh, and analysts say MBS’s trip to Washington completed the country’s international rehabilitation — at least in Trump’s eyes.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday lashed out at an ABC News reporter who asked about Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s connection to the 2018 murder of slain Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. During their meeting at the White House, Trump claimed the crown prince had no knowledge of Khashoggi’s killing, which took place inside Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul, contradicting U.S. intelligence about bin Salman’s role in the murder.
Canada elevating ties
“Saudi Arabia really is the centre of gravity in Donald Trump’s vision of the Middle East,” said Aaron Ettinger, a specialist in international relations at Carleton University in Ottawa.
He said Saudi Arabia has influence in the Israel-Gaza war and also the rivalry with Iran.
“We can go even further by saying Donald Trump is trying to draw Arab states away from the influence of China across the Middle East. So we have three games being played that are all part of Trump’s renewed engagement with Saudi Arabia.”
Canada has also moved relatively quickly to elevate diplomatic and economic ties with Saudi Arabia. Earlier this month, International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu welcomed a high-level Saudi delegation to Ottawa, including MBS’s minister of investment, which resulted in a flurry of new economic and business protocols.
In an analysis bulletin published last week, RBC suggested a visit by Prime Minister Mark Carney to Saudi Arabia could happen sometime in 2026.
“The two countries also have a lot of capital to deploy and a lot of capital that they need,” the bulletin said, identifying key areas for trade and investment, including energy, nuclear and electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing, including drones and satellites.
“Canadian manufacturers and producers, especially in agri-food, can be leading players in Saudi’s ambition to be a food hub for the Middle East and North Africa,” RBC said.
Canada’s largest export to Saudi Arabia, valued at $1.1 billion Cdn in 2023, is armoured vehicles, the bulk of which are LAV armoured cars produced at the General Dynamics Land Systems-Canada plant in London, Ont.
Saudi’s largest export to Canada remains oil — about $1.5 billion Cdn worth in 2023, most of which was refined at the giant Irving Oil facility in Saint John.
Moving beyond human rights concerns
“The relationship has actually been built back up,” said Horak, the now-retired diplomat, underscoring that Carney’s Liberal government appears to have decided that concerns about human rights will no longer define the bilateral relationship.
“We’re not going to sit there and be the school marm wagging our finger and shaking our head,” he said.
“There are countries with whom we have challenges, but that doesn’t mean you don’t talk to them. Engagement gives you access, and access gives you the possibility of influence.”
Under what the kingdom refers to as Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has channelled its energies and wealth into diversifying its economy away from the production of fossil fuels.
One of the most dramatic consequences has been the empowerment of women, who have historically faced severe restrictions in Saudi society.
Women now make up one-third of the workforce, and their ownership of small businesses is on the rise. Restrictions on everything from driving to segregated seating in restaurants are now a thing of the past.
Soccer teams, golf part of rebranding
Still, human rights groups point out that while social freedoms have increased in the kingdom, political freedoms have not. Saudi Arabia has one of the highest execution rates in the world, and even critical social media posts can lead to death sentences.
In Canada, the New Democratic Party has assailed the governing Liberals for continuing to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia, given its questionable human rights record.
On the eve of MBS’s Washington visit, 11 human rights groups urged the Trump administration to prioritize human rights in all of its dealings with the country.
“Saudi Arabia’s crown prince is trying to rebrand himself as a global statesman, but the reality at home is mass repression, record numbers of executions, and zero tolerance for dissent. U.S. officials should be pressing for change, not posing for photos,” said Sarah Yager, the Washington director of Human Rights Watch.
But just as MBS’s visit was beginning, Michael Ratney, who was Biden’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, challenged that approach. He told an event sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that encouragement rather than criticism is more likely to be successful with Saudi’s rulers.
“It doesn’t work to categorize Saudi Arabia as irretrievably bad and then say we’re going to deal with some other country instead,” Ratney said.
Carleton University’s Ettinger said he believes MBS has succeeded in moving past the Khashoggi murder because he has successfully recast Saudi Arabia as a “normal country.”
“Saudi Arabia is going all out in the world, buying up soccer teams and golf tournaments and all kinds of stuff that makes it look interesting, exciting, and not the kind of rigid, oil-rich ‘rentier’ state of the mid-20th century,” he said.
“And that’s exciting for investors around the world.”
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