I’ve generally avoided betting on all things related to a future Scottish independence referendum because back in 2014 I genuinely expected the issue had been settled for a generation and didn’t fancy tying my money up for decades.
After the fun of the Theresa May exit date and the 2020 Presidential markets fiasco I am also keen to avoid bets where the bets are ill defined, ambiguous, or are randomly changed by the bookie after I’ve made the bet.
After Nicola Sturgeon’s recent announcements Betfair have updated their rules which will screw up a few betting positions.
So we have differing rules from different bookmakers, I’m much more comfortable with the Ladbrokes terms simply there’s so much potential to go wrong with a consultative plebiscite (such a Unionist boycott which sees Yes win with say 80% of the vote which would also impact other related markets.)
The reality is no UK Prime Minister will want the break up of the United Kingdom on their curriculum vitae* so they will delay any requests for a plebiscite (and the Scotland Act gives them the cover for that). If Liz Truss wants to be ousted before the next general election all she has to say she will give the go ahead to a Section 30 order.
If we have a UK general election in 2024 and the only viable government is a Labour and SNP coalition/supply and confidence agreement and the SNP demand a plebiscite for putting Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street I suspect he’ll turn them down and darre them and ask will the SNP want to bring down a Labour government and put the Tories in power because that worked out so well for the SNP in 1979.
So that’s my logic for backing Not Before 2025 in the Ladbrokes market and avoid the Betfair market like the plague. This Smarkets may appeal to some, I think the value might be with Yes given the terms of the bet.
But if you are going to bet on Scottish independence please read the terms of the bet before you bet and remember they could change.
*I do not think Yes are certain to win, only a clueless wonder would confidently predict the outcome of indyref2, but no UK PM will want to risk the break up of the UK on their CV.