Coventry City (1st – 48 pts)
The Sky Blues are the big news, six points clear of second and with a goal difference of +30, double that of the next best. It is fair to say that not even the most passionate Sky Blues fan, such as John Mullaney, who famously held up the ‘WE’LL BE BACK’ sign on the day of their Premier League relegation in 2001, could have expected such dominance. Now residing in Australia, will this be the year his defiant message comes to fruition?
Since 2001, they have suffered nearly every imaginable cruel fate a football club could endure. Dropping to the fourth tier, deducted points for being in financial peril (you couldn’t say the EFL do not know how to punish a team when they are down), unable to pay the rent on what was meant to be their own stadium and having to play home games in Northampton and Birmingham, it is fair to say they were near extinction.
The rebuild started in 2017 with the return of manager Mark Robins. Working wonders with a limited budget and astute signings like Swedish striker Victor Gyökeres and Brazilian Dutchman Gustavo Hamer, back-to-back promotions came, but also included heartbreak at Wembley with a penalty shoot-out loss in the 2023 final against Luton and a controversial loss to Manchester United in the 2024 FA Cup semi-final.
By 2023, new owner and local businessman Doug King decided the much-loved Robins had taken the team as far as he could. He was replaced by former Chelsea player and manager Frank Lampard. Fans were initially dismayed, but fortunes turned, and by November this year they were the only undefeated team in the entire English football pyramid and at one time led the league by ten points. Two months before that, the club surprised fans with the announcement that they finally owned their home ground, the 32,609-seater Coventry City Building Society Arena. Grown men were found weeping in the streets, and the team responded that day with a 7-1 home thrashing of QPR.
They have not had it all their own way in games, but have demonstrated an essential ability for any team with promotion aspirations, the ability to fight their way back from behind. Although they have plenty of firepower in American Haji Wright, Ellis Simms, and, lately, Victor Torp, a few recent stutters have coincided with injuries, particularly to their best striker, Brandon Thomas-Asante, and Japanese dynamo Tatsuhiro Sakamoto, which has seen their lead cut. But importantly, with the top two earning automatic promotion, even after dropping two points against Southampton last start after Jay Dasilva’s 47th-minute red card, they are still 11 points clear of third.
Middlesbrough (2nd – 42 pts)
Relegated to the Championship in 2017, they started the season well, but manager Rob Edwards disrupted the campaign by taking the vacant role at Premier League club Wolves. Since then, Swedish manager Kim Hellberg has been appointed to steady the ship. They sit five points clear of third place and have been consistent, but losses to sides below them have seen missed opportunities to gain ground on the leaders.
Ipswich Town (3rd – 37 pts)
Relegated Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester were expected to do well in the Championship. But of the three, only the Tractor Boys look the goods for promotion back into the Premier League. Their journey has not been easy either. Before their back-to-back promotions to the Premier League under Kieran McKenna, they spent four seasons in League One.
Their start this season was slow, garnering just three points from their first four games before a 5-0 victory over Southampton sparked a run of good form until a disastrous 3-0 loss to Charlton. Lucky for them, a number of their rivals showed even patchier form. New recruit Sindre Walle Egeli finally scored with a sublime touch to earn a draw at Blackburn a few weeks ago, then added another in their 3-1 victory over troubled Sheffield Wednesday. They are also one of only two teams to beat Coventry this season, and with a dominant 3-1 home win at that. If they find more consistency, they are my pick to finish in the top two.
Hull City (4th – 37 pts)
Hull are level on points with Ipswich, but while the latter are at evens odds with the bookmakers to gain promotion, Hull are at 25/1, their recent history not inspiring much confidence. A Championship regular since 2017, except for a lone season in League One, the Tigers have not reached the play-offs since dropping from the Premier League. Could this be the year they sneak under the radar and reach the most valuable single club football match in the world?
Preston North End (5th – 36 pts)
The Lancashire side sit in fifth position courtesy of nine wins and nine draws. They have taken one point away from games more times than any other team, one of those being at home to leaders Coventry, and with ten men for fifty minutes. Since 22 October, they have lost just one game, but draws against weaker teams such as Wrexham and, more recently, 23rd-placed Norwich will put pressure on them to remain in the play-off places. I am betting they will stay there.
Millwall (6th – 35 pts)
The Lions have been hovering around the play-off region for several seasons, and here they are again. Their season has been uneven, but then again that is the story for many of their rivals. They suffered a 4-1 loss to Coventry but beat them at home 2-1 in the EFL Cup, and they dented Stoke’s push for top position by defeating them at home. They should be thereabouts come the end of the regular season.
Queens Park Rangers (7th – 34 pts)
Perhaps the most telling statistic of QPR’s season so far is that they have been unable to beat any of the bottom three clubs. Of the teams above them, they have recorded a win against Hull and a home draw with Preston North End, but the rest have had their measure, scoring a combined total of 16 goals to QPR’s four.
Stoke City (8th – 33 pts)
Stoke have been in the Championship since 2018, where they have been regulars in mid-table. This year, with newly appointed manager Mark Robins, they looked a real threat, sitting second for a number of weeks, but a loss in the first versus second clash at home halted their challenge. Injuries followed, and four losses from the last five matches have seen them slide to eighth. Still, their shape is good and if they can cut out defensive lapses, they are only three points from the play-off zone and have a quality striker in Sorba Thomas. His teammates just need to hit the target more often.
Bristol City (9th – 33 pts)
Bristol have just about kept pace with the play-off zone through fighting draws against higher-placed teams, though their most recent 3-0 home win against second-placed Middlesbrough signalled their intention to finish in the top six for the second year in a row, even if it is in sixth.
Watford (10th – 32 pts)
The Hornets faced the top three teams in the space of eleven days some weeks ago and acquitted themselves well, earning a draw against Ipswich and a comprehensive 3-0 win over Middlesbrough.
Southampton (11th – 31 pts)
Southampton’s last two outings were less than impressive. A 2-1 away loss to second-bottom Norwich, who are starting to find form, and a 1-1 draw at home to a ten-man Coventry. In late August they were unable to earn a point against Stoke despite the visitors playing with ten men from the 60th minute. Their only scalp against a team above them was a 2-1 away win at QPR, form that has hardly sent their fans into raptures.
With just six points separating sixth from 14th, a strong run could see any of QPR, Stoke, Bristol City, Watford, Southampton, Derby, Leicester or Birmingham statistically make the play-offs. My inclination, however, is that the teams behind Bristol have not shown enough.
The Relegation Battle
Sheffield Wednesday are severely hampered by an 18-point deduction for financial issues and, with just one win, sit on minus nine points. They are already planning for life in League One.
Twenty-third placed Norwich have two wins, two draws and a loss from their last five games and are hoping that form will continue and allow them to leapfrog both Oxford United and Portsmouth.
And For ‘Welcome To Wrexham’ Fans
The Premier League is not in sight at the moment, but neither is relegation, so welcome to the Championship. Be proud to be there, one of the toughest leagues in the world.
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