We’re in the final weeks of the NFL regular season, and with the playoffs closing in, there are several crucial games on this slate, including a Thursday Night Football showdown as the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams, who are both 11-3.
The Rams are the No. 1 seed in the NFC while the Seahawks are No. 5. If the Seahawks win, these spots would swap.
Furthermore, the Rams and Seahawks are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in Super Bowl odds, at +350 and +700, respectively.
Will the Seahawks take care of business at home and take control of the NFC?
See my predictions for that matchup and the rest of the games below.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Since Week 11, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has completed 62.3 per cent of his passes for 1,171 yards, five touchdowns, and five interceptions.
He also had four interceptions in Week 11 against the Rams.
PREDICTION: Rams -1 (-105)
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This Eagles offence has been incredibly inconsistent lately, averaging 18.6 points per game since Week 10.
Over that span, QB Jalen Hurts has completed 59.3 per cent of his passes for seven touchdowns, five interceptions, and has recorded three rushing scores.
With this being a divisional game and considering the Eagles’ recent struggles, I’ll pick them to win, but the Commanders will cover the spread.
PREDICTION: Commanders +6.5 (-110)
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers left Week 15 with two notable injuries: Micah Parsons tore his ACL and is out for the season, and wide receiver Christian Watson suffered a chest injury but is expected to practise.
These teams played in Week 14, and Watson caught two touchdown passes, helping the Packers win 28-21.
However, with the spread only a point, I trust the Packers more.
If Watson somehow doesn’t play, though, not all hope is lost. In situations where Packers QB Jordan Love doesn’t have Watson on the field, he’s completed 160 of 239 passes (66.9 per cent) for 12 touchdowns and four interceptions.
The offence will change, but the Packers will succeed on the road.
PREDICTION: Packers -1 (-110)
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are holding teams to 169.5 passing yards per game, and next up is a rookie QB, Shedeur Sanders.
While the Bills’ run defence is suspect and the Browns have an excellent rookie running back in Quinshon Judkins, I don’t trust the Browns’ passing attack whatsoever.
PREDICTION: Bills -10 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers
While the Chargers’ passing game has been down a bit lately with QB Justin Herbert coming off surgery on his left wrist, he’s in for a fantastic matchup on the road and in a dome against the Cowboys.
The Cowboys are allowing a league-high 254.8 passing yards per game.
On the other side, the Chargers’ defence has been playing exceedingly well this season, holding teams to 279.1 total yards of offence per game (second).
PREDICTION: Chargers +2.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
With Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes out for the season, the Chiefs are now turning to a veteran, Gardner Minshew.
The Titans primarily play Cover-3 and Cover-4, and over his career against those coverages, Minshew has completed 68.9 per cent of his passes for 3,693 yards, five touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
Yes, the nine interceptions are concerning, but that’s across 619 dropbacks (one per every 68.7 dropbacks).
As for Titans QB Cam Ward, he’s completed 65 per cent of his passes for 1,011 yards, 6.4 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and three interceptions against the coverage the Chiefs play most often (Cover-3).
The Chiefs get the win and cover.
PREDICTION: Chiefs -3.5 (-105)
Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Quinn Ewers, a seventh-round pick from the 2025 Draft, will make his first NFL start at home against the Bengals.
The Bengals are allowing a league-high 403.8 total yards per game, which includes 245.9 passing yards (28th) and 157.9 rushing yards (32nd).
Ewers is getting an excellent debut matchup, and so long as he can keep the ball out of harm’s way and get the ball in RB De’Von Achane’s hands, this could be a closer game than expected.
PREDICTION: Dolphins +4.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets
For your own sake, don’t overthink this.
PREDICTION: Saints -4.5 (-110)
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy has had a rough season, but over the last two weeks, he’s played well, completing 66 per cent of his passes for 413 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, and rushing 10 times for 34 yards and another score.
The Giants play mostly Cover-1 and Cover-3, and over his last two games, McCarthy has completed 68.8 per cent of his passes (18 dropbacks) against those.
Vikings win, and McCarthy puts up another solid performance.
PREDICTION: Vikings -3 (-110)
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At this point in the season, a lot of players are beat up, but Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield may be more injured than others.
Since getting hurt against the Rams in Week 11, he’s completed 55.4 per cent of his passes for 593 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Furthermore, as a home underdog, the Panthers are 4-1 against the spread.
I’ll take the points.
PREDICTION: Panthers +3 (-115)
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Broncos lead the NFL in pressures with 239. Under duress, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has completed 49.6 per cent of his passes for 922 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, and 10 turnover-worthy plays.
This defence is next-level, and the Broncos have won 11 straight games.
PREDICTION: Broncos -3 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
It’s been a tough go for the Cardinals and QB Jacoby Brissett, going 1-8 in games he starts, but this is a good spot for them.
Brissett has played well recently, throwing multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and throwing for 249 yards or more in all three.
The Cardinals do have RB Bijan Robinson to worry about, and WR Drake London may play, but I’ll ride with the home team given Brissett’s recent play.
PREDICTION: Cardinals +2.5 (-110)
Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ offence has played well recently, scoring 27 and 28 points in back-to-back games.
Now, they’re on the road against a Lions defence that’s surrendered 306.7 passing yards per game over their last three.
The Lions play Cover-1 and Cover-3 more than any other coverage, and against those, Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers has eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
When it’s all said and done, the Lions’ offence will likely pull through and get the win, but the Steelers will keep this close enough to cover.
PREDICTION: Steelers +7 (-110)
Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders
There’s no chance I’m taking the Raiders in this spot, regardless of the 14.5-point spread.
They will get completely demolished by a Texans team that’s fourth in the NFL in pressure (216) while the Raiders have given up 203 pressures and a league-high 54 sacks.
PREDICTION: Texans -14.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Whenever a point spread initially confuses me, that’s usually a bad sign that perhaps I’m missing something, but I’m not sure how the Patriots are three-point underdogs in this game.
The Ravens are coming off a shutout win over the Bengals, sure, but they also recently lost at home to them and the Steelers.
Over their last three games, the Ravens are 20th in pressures with 36, but even if Patriots QB Drake Maye is pressured, he’s tossed five touchdowns under duress.
Additionally, against the coverages the Ravens most often play (Cover-1 and Cover-3), Maye has completed 71.4 per cent of his passes for 2,149 yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions while averaging 10.1 yards per attempt.
PREDICTION: Patriots +3 (-115)
Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers
I went back and watched every single throw by Colts QB Philip Rivers in their loss to the Seahawks, and considering he just came off the couch after five years and had to play in Seattle, he looked pretty decent.
Now, he’ll get a much easier defence at home.
The 49ers are 28th in pressures (154) and have allowed 114.3 rushing yards per game over their last three.
The game plan for the Colts will be the same: Keep the game in third-and-manageable, run the ball plenty, and play hard on defence.
PREDICTION: Colts +6 (-105)
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