Senators’ playoff chances rely on improving struggling special teams

OTTAWA — To become a special team, you must be excellent at … special teams. 

“I don’t think it’s complicated,” Senators coach Travis Green said after another deflating loss against St. Louis where the power play went 1-for-7.

“We’ve liked our game these last two games. Got to find a way to score. We got to bear down around the net, and our power play has to be better.”

The Senators are sliding down the standings because of an inability to be effective in scenarios when they are up or down a man. 

Green’s team has been one of the best five-on-five teams in the league. Analytically, the Senators are fifth in expected goals share at five-on-five. 

Yet, that same team has the second-worst penalty kill, at a 69 per cent conversion rate, and are precipitously sliding down the power-play rankings. Since Oct. 28, the Senators have the fourth-worst power play, as they are 7-for-54 with the man advantage.

In that same period, their penalty kill is third-last. 

Yet, they are 8-7-3 in that stretch.

The Senators are the rare team that might want a game to be free of penalties. 

The adage that Green preaches is You’re never as good or as bad as you think you are.

Right now, the Senators are more bad than good, but we are at a point of the season where small sample sizes become less forgiving as reality sets in. 

So, let’s analyze their power-play and penalty-killing units to discern the causes for concern, and where the Senators can possibly improve. 

A good power play ratchets up opponents’ fears, they are buzzin’, peppering the net with chances. This season, the Senators have been too much on the perimeter. 

“(We’re) just not getting the job done, (we’re) on the outside a lot. The execution hasn’t been good enough either,” said Green. 

Interestingly, Ottawa’s first power-play unit, which has struggled mightily even since Brady Tkachuk’s return, was demoted with six minutes left in the third period against St. Louis. The second unit started over the first unit, and promptly scored. 

Why was the second unit trusted?

“The other unit came out and simplified,” said Senators defenceman Jake Sanderson. “It starts with (Claude) Giroux throwing pucks to the net multiple times, and multiple guys there and bang home rebounds.”

Fabian Zetterlund on the second power-play unit drove the net and banged it home against St. Louis for the team’s only power-play goal. Greasy, yet effective. It’s what Ottawa’s power-play motto should become. 

The Senators are 13th in shot attempts on the power play this season, but since their struggles from Oct. 28 onward, they rank 23rd.

In a league that has seen shots on goal per game fall off a cliff as teams chase quality over volume, there is still a role for launching pucks at the twine. 

However, Ottawa’s issue isn’t just quantity, but quality too. The Senators have the third-lowest expected goals for on their power play this season, and if anything they are outshooting their problems with the 10th-highest shooting percentage. One major caveat is that Tkachuk has played only a handful of games and is one of the best power play net-front presences in the game: the Senators sit 12th in expected goals on the power play since his return. 

All in all, the Senators need to simplify, shoot and pursue the net front on the power play. Easier written than done, but their track record suggests they’ll figure it out. Since the 2022-23 season, cumulatively Ottawa is 14th in power-play conversion. Sanderson, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and Tkachuk all have track records as power-play merchants. 

Proof will be in putting the puck in the net. 

It’s a different and more convoluted story for the penalty kill. Under Green’s tutelage, the Senators are 26th in penalty killing since the beginning of the 2024-25 season. It’s been Ottawa’s Achilles’ heel. 

We’ve talked about how diamonds (penalty-kill formations) are forever, but Green has evolved the PK to a hybrid system. 

When opponents have a 1-3-1 power play — meaning one defenceman at the top, three forwards in the middle of the offensive zone and one deployed in front of the net — the Senators have a diamond formation. In theory, this allows the Senators to pressure the player at the blueline while also defending the three players in the middle. The problem has been that too many times, opposition players are left wide open at the side of the net; witness Juraj Slafkovsky’s goal on Tuesday, where he buried a tap-in. There is a propensity for Ottawa to become too stagnant in the diamond formation and give too much time to their opponents. 

“I think we can be a little more aggressive. I think we got away from that a little bit,” Ridly Greig told Sportsnet.ca. “When we are aggressive, it’s got to be all four of us. It can’t just be one or two guys. It’s got to be everybody.”

Meanwhile, when the opponent has a spread 3-2 power play — with three players attacking up top near the net and two players on the blueline — the Senators will have a box formation in the middle of the defensive zone. 

But there are signs to suggest Ottawa’s penalty kill is better than it seems. 

The Senators are second in expected goals allowed of any penalty kill, but they own the third-worst penalty-kill save percentage. Ottawa’s netminders haven’t been their best penalty killers. 

In an interview with Sportsnet.ca, Green explained his perspective about their penalty kill, which sits second-last. 

“Do we like that? Our numbers aren’t great, no,” Green said. “But I’d be a lot more concerned if you know our expected goals were extremely high as well, and yet, we got to find a way to get it going.

“If you look at the PK, our expected goals against have been really good the last six weeks or so.”

Which is true. Since Oct. 24, the Senators are third in expected goals allowed and have the fewest scoring chances allowed on the penalty kill. 

“It’s been a little bit of luck that hasn’t gone our way, even last night like that (against St. Louis),” Green said. “(Nikolas) Matinpalo just misses the puck (which led to a goal). We’ve had a lot of those, so we can’t get carried away with it. We’re very mindful of it.”

Some of it is bad luck, some of it is goaltending and some of it is the execution of their system. The Senators don’t have many natural penalty killers, especially with Shane Pinto and Lars Eller out, and Greig missing some time. Currently, the Senators have only two consistent forwards who were killing penalties last season in Greig and Giroux. On defence, Tyler Kleven and Matinpalo are killing penalties for the first time at the NHL level. 

In the end, the Senators coach feels optimistic about his PK scheme.

“You can be the best penalty-kill team in the league, but you’re giving up a lot more (chances), and your goalie saving your ass, and it can be hard to be honest with where you’re at,” he said.

Cautious optimism needs to become cold-hearted positive facts soon for the Senators’ special teams. Their playoff chances depend on it. 

–Statistics courtesy of Natural StatTrick