NFL Week 14 Pick ‘Em: Can Lions’ Goff hold up against suddenly stout Cowboys?

The matchup I’m most looking forward to seeing this week is the Buffalo Bills taking on the Joe Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals.

Not only is this arguably the best game on the slate as the Bengals attempt to claw their way back into the playoff picture, but it’s also a battle between two NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl, despite being in the conversation as contenders for several seasons now.

Will the Bengals pull off the upset?

Or will the Bills, who are currently fourth in Super Bowl odds at +1000, win back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 7 and 8?

See my predictions for this game and the rest of the slate below:

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

Lions quarterback Jared Goff has five interceptions this season, and they’ve all come against the two coverages the Cowboys play more than anything else: Cover-2 and Cover-3.

Additionally, the Cowboys’ defence has held teams to 69.7 rushing yards per game over their last three, which is second in the NFL in that span.

PREDICTION: Cowboys +3 (-105)

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals

In his return against the Baltimore Ravens, Burrow threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns without Tee Higgins on the field due to a concussion.

The Bills play Cover-3 more than anything else, and dating back to last season, Burrow has completed 70.7 per cent of his passes against it.

Assuming Higgins is back on the field, and given the calibre of the QBs in this matchup, I’ll take the points, with the Bills winning outright.

PREDICTION: Bengals +6 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over his last two games, while dealing with a fracture to his fibula, Colts QB Daniel Jones completed 42.3 per cent of his passes, averaged 5.5 yards per attempt, and had one touchdown pass when pressured.

In that same span, the Jaguars are second in pressures with 39.

The winner could go either way, but I’ll take the home team plus the points.

PREDICTION: Jaguars +1.5 (-110)

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 1-5 over the last three seasons on the road in December.

Furthermore, while the Jets have yet to intercept a pass all season, this is as good a spot as any to get their first, as Tagovailoa is tied with Las Vegas Raiders QB Geno Smith for the most in the league with 14.

PREDICTION: Jets +2.5 (-105)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

While Saints QB Tyler Shough has a respectable 65.2 per cent completion rate, this offence simply isn’t scoring.

Over their last five games, the Saints haven’t scored more than 17 points and are averaging 11.4 points per outing over that span.

It’s hard to trust them here, so I’ll lay the points.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers -8.5 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Neither of these teams is playing well right now.

Since his comeback against the Dolphins several weeks ago, these are Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s stats: 61-of-108 (56 per cent) for 768 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, 26 carries, 84 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns.

It’s also been rough for the Steelers, too, scoring 10 points or fewer in two of their last four games.

I’m expecting a low-scoring game, so I’ll take the points.

PREDICTION: Steelers +6 (-110)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are not only tied for third in points per game at 29.2, but their pass rush is in a league of its own, leading the NFL with 214 pressures.

Since the start of the 2024 season, Falcons QB Kirk Cousins has thrown six touchdowns and 10 interceptions under pressure.

This could be a long afternoon for the Falcons’ offence.

PREDICTION: Seahawks -7.5 (-105)

Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans

The Browns lead the NFL in pressures over the past three weeks with 58.

Now, they’re going up against Titans rookie QB Cam Ward, who’s completed 40.7 per cent of his passes for 598 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions under duress.

It’s possible Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett, who has 19 sacks, could break the official single-season sack record of 22.5 this week alone.

PREDICTION: Browns -3.5 (-102)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders

It sounds like J.J. McCarthy will be back under centre for the Vikings this week, but he’s been horrendous, throwing six interceptions over his last three starts.

Not only that, but against Cover-3 — the coverage the Commanders most often play — he’s completed 56.8 per cent of his passes for one touchdown and two interceptions.

I feel much more confident in the Commanders.

PREDICTION: Commanders -1 (-105)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

I’m taking the Broncos as the Raiders are a complete disaster with Smith under centre, but for fun, here’s some haiku-like analysis:

Broncos’ pressure swarms,

Raiders stumble in the storm,

To contextualize the haiku, the Broncos are second in the NFL in pressures (193), the Raiders have allowed the most pressures over the last three weeks (57), and Smith is tied for the league lead in interceptions (14).

PREDICTION: Broncos -7.5 (-115)

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears’ passing attack has been lacklustre lately, averaging 184.3 yards per game over their last three (20th).

However, against Cover-3, the coverage the Packers play most, Bears QB Caleb Williams has eight touchdown passes and one interception.

I’m anticipating an improvement, and I’ll take the points.

PREDICTION: Bears +6.5 (-102)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

This is a lot of points for a divisional matchup, but the Cardinals have allowed 211 pressures this season, which leads the NFL.

When facing pressure, Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett has completed 45.6 per cent of his passes for 612 yards, 5.9 yards per attempt, one touchdown, and one interception.

I’ll lean toward the Rams.

PREDICTION: Rams -8 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have what I consider to be the best defence in the league, and they allow only 16 points per game.

Against Cover-3, the coverage the Texans play most often, Mahomes is completing 67.8 per cent of his passes, but has two touchdown passes and one interception.

I’m expecting a low-scoring game, which could very well come down to a field goal by Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker.

PREDICTION: Texans +3.5 (-118)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

This is a challenging game to pick, as we’re still awaiting word on whether Chargers QB Justin Herbert will play after undergoing surgery on his left hand.

If he does play (which sounds likely), I do worry about him playing with that injury against an Eagles defence that’s tied for sixth in pressures (179) and behind an offensive line that’s allowed the second-most pressures (194).

Leaning toward the Eagles slightly.

PREDICTION: Eagles -3 (+100)