Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for December 1, 2025

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of December the 1st, 2025. Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with that U.S. Dollar Index or the U.S. Dollar Bull Fund (USDU). Now, in most cases, the dollar does see some strength in the first week of December, and then it does very poorly for the remainder of the month.

The key fundamental we want to keep an eye on this particular coming week is rhetoric around Fed rate cuts, the bias towards the cut as we get more economic data. But for now, we can see that the USDU bull fund is turning bearish. We’re closing slightly below that all-important Tross Long, but we have an MA diff cross to the downside. Predicted RSI is pointing down. The only little bit of a concern or a warning sign is the Neural Index Strength, as it is starting to point up, and that would be consistent with some U.S. dollar strength this coming week.

Now, if we look at the inverse correlation to that, the UDN, the dollar bear fund, I believe there’s opportunity there in the month of December. We can see we have an MA diff cross to the upside. We have momentum building on the bearish signal, but again, we just have to get past this first week in order for this to progress.

Now again, with the Tross Long crossing over, or the market, excuse me, crossing over the Tross Long two days in a row, in most cases that is a warning sign of pending U.S. dollar weakness on any given market. It’s pointing towards the U.S. dollar moving lower, as the UDN is an inverse, meaning it’s showing dollar weakness. So again, most of our G7 pairs are likely to struggle a little bit at the beginning of the week and then show strength toward the end of the week.

Now, when we look at Gold in relationship to the U.S. Dollar Index more specifically, we can see that Gold is turning bullish again. Silver and Copper very bullish on real demand. Now, you’re never going to see the kind of demand for Gold at the current time that you will see from a fundamental standpoint with Silver and Copper, but Gold is still a leading correlated market to all of your other metals.

Right now, we have a perfectly positioned MA diff cross — the pink line over the blue line — again showing momentum on the Gold trade in most cases. Guys, don’t let the first week of December fool you. As we move into December, in most calendar years, Gold is very bullish in the month of December and usually into January. So that looks to be setting up quite well. Longs remain very viable while above the Tross Long at 4112 and more specifically the monthly opening price 401. But that monthly opening price will change starting when the market opens on Sunday night, tonight actually.

Now, when we look at the SPY, the equity markets, a dramatic recovery when basically 98% of the analysts basically gave the equity markets the kiss of death, saying that it was turning negative. Guys, there’s just nothing factual in that. Even from the worst-case scenario in this particular sell-off, from a seasonal standpoint, that is basically a worst-case scenario over the last five years for a drop of 10% on the equity markets.

And then there was a dramatic reversal taking us right back up to the current monthly opening price, just under the monthly opening price. But right now, the SPY remains bullish while above our Tross Long. That level is coming in at 672, and again the quarterly opening 663.17, very strong level for going into year-end.

Now, when I cross-reference this to the DAX, what I had warned about over a week ago was the bears here, in my view, are not coming in. It’s a bear trap is what I believe this to be. The DAX, grossly outperforming the S&P 500 this year, and it too is turning around as the U.S. equity markets turn higher. So again, it’s always important, and I left these on from last week. Again, that’s 27% from the turnaround point.

Once again, as long as we can hold or get back up above the quarterly opening price here, 4491, then I believe again the longs are heavily favored. As long as the U.S. equity markets remain strong, the DAX also is likely to remain strong. We have good momentum with the break of the 60 level. We’ve got an MA diff cross that was warning us back on November the 24th that this was in fact a bear trap, and do not stay short on this.

I believe that the DAX, like the S&P and the global indices, can come under a little bit of pressure this coming week, but that would be a buying opportunity, guys, because we’re expecting the dollar to fall by the end of next week.

Now, when we look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin has recovered to some degree, but you can see exactly where we’re failing — right up against that T-Cross, the Vantage Point Tross Long. That level is at 92,547. But the yearly opening price is a far bigger concern — 93,804.

I believe we can potentially retake this level. But either way, be careful with Bitcoin in 2026. We’re in the third year of a three-year rally, and in most cases, next year would be a down year for Bitcoin. Nothing is 100%, but there is bullish momentum. We just have to get over the yearly opening price and the Tcross Long for this to advance.

Now again, how does the VIX play into all of this? Well, if the VIX is losing momentum — and I will remind everybody, the VIX has not been positive on the year, I think, since going back into April. So right now, not only have we fallen hard from that failure point where we saw a bear trap on the DAX, the S&P 500, the Dow, the Russell, etc., now we’ve broken down below the quarterly opening price. That quarterly opening price coming in at 32.48. That is our key level to watch for next week. We’ve got our T-Cross Long 33.80.

Everything here is pointing that the VIX, once we get past this small bout of dollar strength in the first week of the new month, then I think the VIX will fall and the equities will rise. But it is still dependent on the Fed — the rhetoric that the Fed is going to cut.

But again, the only little bit of concern I have here: the predicted RSI is not breaking down below the 40 level. We’re looking for momentum. So that is warning me that we don’t necessarily have momentum on the downside on the VIX, even though the chart structurally looks like we do. We just have that dollar cycle at the beginning of the month, which occurs probably 10 of the 12 months per year, where we see real-world dollar buying in the first week of the new month.

Now, Oil is trying to recover this past week. Again, I think it really did help with Goldman Sachs putting out the announcement of $30 a barrel in Oil. I think that’s utterly ridiculous. As soon as Goldman Sachs tells us to sell something, we should immediately be looking for longs. And sure enough, shortly after that statement last week, Oil started to turn around.

Now, it is still negative on the year — I will certainly concede that — but the closer we get into February, March, and April, Oil will still follow its normal seasonal patterns and start to rise as Natural Gas falls, usually by mid-January. So right now, we do have a little bit of bullish momentum, and we did close the week above the VPT Cross Long at 70.92. That’s a big positive — a much bigger positive than most would realize. So again, I don’t think we’re going into a bull market in Oil in the month of December, but as we get toward February, March, and April, we should see Oil still rise. And there is bullish momentum there.

Now, as we look at some of our main FX pairs, they’re basically all around dollar strength or dollar weakness.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar ($EUR/USD)

When we look at the Euro, once again the Euro is having a very, very good year this year — probably the best year it’s had in a very long time. We’ve got a three-day close above our Tross Long. We have an MA diff cross to the upside. Momentum is building. But again, guys, be very careful with this at the beginning of the week.

I would argue that we should see further U.S. dollar weakness or Euro strength probably by Wednesday, Thursday, Friday — the latter part of the week — and we could see some downside moves here. But here’s the play: if you see a big move up on Monday, I can almost guarantee you it’s going to go lower on Tuesday, then we look to buy it back Wednesday or Thursday. In most cases, this Monday–Tuesday reversal happens on a regular basis, guys. So be careful with that Monday trading for potentially a false price.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc ($USD/CHF)

Now again, the U.S. Swiss Franc had a pretty significant failure this past week — a bigger failure than most would know — and that was actually on Tuesday, as we came up near the high of the Monday bar, the Monday bar high, failed at that level, and we’ve been moving lower since. So again, I think the USD/CHF can potentially recover for a day or two, but that would be about it.

We have an MA diff cross to the downside. All I’m looking for is the RSI — predicted RSI — to break down below the 40 level to trigger that momentum. I believe that could occur as early as Wednesday or early Thursday morning. That’s what I would keep track of. So a little bit more downside, maybe 79.65, our quarterly opening price, and then we reverse.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar ($GBP/USD)

Now, the British Pound/U.S. Dollar again for next week — potentially a very good long in December. We just need the latter part of the week, guys. Let this see how this thing shakes out. But the VP indicators are actually quite bullish here. We’re holding above the Tross Long. We’re holding above the yearly opening and the monthly opening price.

Our current target would be 1.3445, the quarterly opening price. I imagine we could be there potentially as early as next week’s presentation. But if not, then the following week I believe we are going to move back toward 1.3445 — not on British Pound strength, but actually on U.S. dollar weakness.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen ($USD/JPY)

Now, with the Dollar/Yen, the Dollar/Yen is one you still want to keep your eyes on here, guys. It’s impossible for me to script this type of stuff because this is an outlook — not a recap of something that’s already taken place. The yearly opening price 157.28 — there is zero lag in that predictive yearly opening price. That’s why I speak to it almost every week because that’s the level we’re failing at here, guys.

We know the Bank of Japan is on the hunt for intervention to get this thing down, right? This is the mess they created with the help of the Fed. But it’s their mess, and right now they are going to be looking for verbal intervention — anything to strengthen the Yen to some degree — because while their exports are doing very well, their imports are not. It’s very expensive for them, so they’ve got to get that exchange rate down to a more reasonable level.

Prior to Covid, guys, this was trading at 108, 109, 110, and the Bank of Japan was verbally intervening at that time, saying, “We’re not letting this thing slip below the 100 level.” Very interesting stuff here, to say the least. But keep your eye out for the Bank of Japan because I believe that they are going to try and leverage that dollar weakness in the month of December. So shorts heavily favored while below 157.28.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar ($USD/CAD)

Now, the U.S./Canadian pair — again, not Canadian strength here, but rather U.S. dollar weakness at this time of year. The Canadian Dollar still holds below the yearly opening price, but again, the exchange rate for buying Canadian dollars is starting to look a little bit better. There’s a pipeline deal in the works, but again, the tariffs are still on. It still points toward weakness in the Canadian Dollar.

Watch these critical levels down here — the quarterly opening price 1.3920. If it’s going to rebound, that’s where it’s going to be, guys. 1.3920 this coming week. So keep an eye on that level. Shorts are slightly favored here, but again, there’s still very little fundamental reason to be buying the Canadian Dollar. Always remember: it’s not even really about Canadian dollar strength or weakness. It’s about U.S. dollar strength or weakness and whether or not those tariffs are going to come off.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar ($AUD/USD)

Now, the Kiwi and the Aussie — both of these two currencies have had strong rebounds this past week. I’ve predominantly been an advocate for the bull side of both of these pairs for the last several months. I believe both will be very good longs in 2026.

But for this coming week, our Tross Long — that’s the key level you want to watch — 0.6509. Our target right now is 0.6613. I believe we can get there by the end of the week. Watch that level because the VP indicators are very bullish here. MA diff cross, momentum on the predicted RSI. Neural Index is strong. We’re above the yearly opening price, but we’ve got to get above this.

We’re going to set a new monthly opening price on Monday. I anticipate it’ll be around 0.6540. If we’re holding above that, the immediate upside target is 0.6613, which again I feel we can get to within the next week or so.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar ($NZD/USD)

The same thing with the Kiwi. Again, the market really got out of whack here with listening to the Bank of New Zealand going on about rate cuts, and now they flipped and said, “Okay, we’re cutting 25 basis points this past week and that’s it. We’re done.” So the Kiwi immediately responded.

But again, you’ll notice how the market — there’s been a considerable amount of indecision right around the calendar yearly opening price. Often, when I ask people how do you identify a trend, they don’t really know how to answer that question. They could be looking at a one-hour time frame, a five-minute time frame, a lagging oscillator of some kind — many different ways that could be.

The simple question if somebody asked me that is I say, “Okay, well am I above or below the calendar yearly opening price?” That’s how I’m going to determine it. If I’m above it, it’s bullish; below it, it’s bearish.

So as you can see, we have a considerable amount of room to the upside, not only in 2025 but in my respectful opinion 2026. I think it’s going to be a very good year for both the Aussie and the Kiwi, as they are both grossly undervalued.

So with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of December the 1st.