Matchmaking UFC’s crowded lightweight division

An important piece of UFC lightweight business was conducted last weekend as, over a suffocating round-and-a-half leading to an arm triangle finish of Dan Hooker, Arman Tsarukyan proved he remains among the division’s most dangerous contenders despite an 18-month layoff.

Now, it’s clear Tsarukyan ought to fight for the title in 2026. Yet he may not be the first to do so as the UFC has been positioning the immensely popular Paddy Pimblett for the next crack at Ilia Topuria’s crown for months.

Could Tsarukyan’s performance on Saturday change the calculus? Possibly. Either way, the top of the division is crowded, which leaves the rest of the top-10 in need of work to sort out the next level of contenders.

So, let’s look at some lightweight fights the UFC could make in the new year to help sort out positioning and lay the groundwork for advancing one of its premier divisions in 2026.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Ilia Topuria

Pimblett’s 7-0 since arriving in the UFC, and undefeated since 2018 stretching back into his Cage Warriors run, yet the context of his recent track record doesn’t exactly argue a slam dunk case for a title shot.

In his last three fights he handed a 39-year-old Tony Ferguson one of eight consecutive losses on his way out of the promotion, choked out a 38-year-old King Green, and dropped a 39-year-old Michael Chandler’s UFC record to 2-5.

But Pimblett’s fights have been undeniably entertaining, and he’s seized every moment a live mic’s been within arm’s reach to sell his supersized personality. Like it or not, those style points add up quickly with the broader fan base and UFC brass, the latter of which is in the business of making fights the former wants to see. 

The build-up to a Pimblett-Topuria fight alone will be must-watch as two of the division’s most fiery trash talkers amp up a feud that’s simmered for years. And not for nothing, Pimblett’s striking differential (2.05) is sixth best in the division. He’s doled out more and absorbed fewer significant strikes per minute than Topuria over their UFC careers. Pimblett ought to be a live underdog.

And while the test for every Topuria opponent is whether they can withstand his power, Pimblett’s never taken a knockout nor been dropped in his UFC career. There are a dozen different ways to sell this fight both with what these fighters do inside and outside the octagon. And the company appears to be preparing itself to do just that. 

Arman Tsarukyan vs. winner of Pimblett / Topuria

After Tsarukyan answered all questions about his readiness with a clinical slice through Hooker on Saturday, it’s clear who the No. 1 contender is in the lightweight division. In a meritocratic system, should Tsarukyan get an immediate title shot? Sure. Especially after taking so little damage against Hooker.

Only one problem — the UFC isn’t a meritocracy. And it doesn’t take a PhD in tea leaf reading to interpret why the company’s been directing Pimblett and Topuria towards a clash for some time. 

The UFC is beginning a new, $7.7-billion broadcast agreement with Paramount in 2026. It will want to come out of the gate with several numbered cards featuring headliners who can both draw audiences into fights and convince them to stick around during. And Pimblett — a natural on the mic with an entertaining, striking-forward style — has an edge over Tsarukyan in both categories. 

Still, Tsarukyan should be in the first row, mean-mugging for cameras and ready to hop into the cage for a faceoff with whoever wins. Tsarukyan vs. Topuria would be one of the most elite skill matchups UFC can make across its entire roster. And if Pimblett pulls off the upset, his already burgeoning star power would skyrocket, making a first defence against a killer such as Tsarukyan must-watch. 

Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway

Incredibly, it’s been a decade since these two headlined a Fight Night card — in Saskatoon, Sask., of all places — as up-and-coming featherweights vying to stand out in a division ruled by Jose Aldo. It was one of the most anticipated fights on the calendar for hardcore fans but ultimately failed to deliver as Oliveira suffered an esophageal tear in the first round and couldn’t continue.

So, now that both are legendary mid-30s lightweights and still among the sport’s most entertaining to watch, why not give fans the rematch they’ve been waiting 10 years for? The bout already makes sense in a lightweight contender context — both are coming off in-division victories and ranked No. 2 (Oliveira) and No. 3 (Holloway). But it could also double as a BMF title fight atop a numbered event.

The significance of that ceremonial title is dubious to say the least, but Holloway is the holder having seized it from Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 and defended it against Dustin Poirier in July. Oliveira certainly qualifies among the select group of deserving BMF contenders. So, if that helps raise the profile of an already compelling fight, why not?

Dan Hooker vs. Justin Gaethje

If Gaethje is serious about retiring if his next fight isn’t for the title, then Hooker may need to get shuttled into the BMF discussion along with Oliveira and Holloway. But if Gaethje opts to fight again, locking the octagon door behind these two is about as strong a bet as you can make for a wildly exciting fight.

It’s such a good matchup that the UFC already booked it for March, but Hooker was forced to withdraw after breaking his hand. Rafael Fiziev took his place and Gaethje emerged victorious in a back-and-forth fight of the night at UFC 313.

Now, with the top of the division tied up, Gaethje needs something to do lest he get stale on the sidelines. He’s already sat out for nearly a year and more inactivity won’t do him any favours. Hooker presents a good intersection of a game opponent that Gaethje ought to be favoured against. And should he win, the 37-year-old will remain on the cusp of the title picture, only one twist of fate away from the shot he’s been asking for.

Meanwhile, for Hooker, facing a fellow action fighter guarantees the fight will draw eyeballs and be billed by many as the people’s main event of any card it appears on. And not that he needs to sell a fight this enticing, but Hooker’s already taken a verbal jab at Gaethje, saying last week that, “you can’t just be like, ‘I’m not playing anymore if no one gives me (a title shot)’ …  sitting around and f—ing point fingers and arguing who deserves it more. Just go out there and win fights.”

With lightweight championship contention unrealistic, there’s value for Hooker in remaining involved in fights fans want to see. And the winner of this one could easily be booked into a BMF title fight with Oliveira or Holloway headlining a future card.

Renato Moicano vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Both these fighters are looking to right the ship following recent setbacks. Moicano fell short in a technical battle with Beniel Dariush, while Ruffy’s hype train was derailed by the physicality of Benoit Saint-Denis. But Ruffy’s low-output, high-power style and Moicano’s lanky, former-featherweight build ought to ensure neither of those weaknesses is exposed again.

A 36-year-old who likes to stay active, Moicano could hang around the lightweight fray for some time, testing up-and-comers trying to enter the top-10. And Ruffy, only 29 and coming off the first setback of his otherwise electric UFC run, is exactly the kind of fighter you throw at a gatekeeper like that. This is an easy one to lock into one of the opening main card slots at a Pimblett vs. Topuria event.

Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Rafael Fiziev

After a pair of momentum-halting defeats at the hands of Dustin Poirier and Moicano, Saint-Denis has quickly reestablished himself within the division’s top-10, rattling off three 2025 victories, including a first-minute flattening of Dariush earlier this month. There’s no reason for him to cease being active after that, so let’s get him turned around quickly in an early-2026 date with Rafael Fiziev.

Saint-Denis would likely prefer a bigger-named opponent, but it’s hard to find him one within the top 10. It won’t be Topuria, Tsarukyan, Gaethje, or Pimblett. Oliveira and Holloway ought to fight one another. He could take a fight with Mateusz Gamrot or Hooker, but they’re both coming off losses. And he could seek to get one back against Moicano, but that would arguably represent fighting down at this point. 

That leaves Fiziev as the one sensible opponent coming off a win. Gamrot’s likely the next-best option, but Saint-Denis has more to gain against Fiziev, not to mention it’s a more favourable matchup. Saint-Denis wants to stand and bang, an offer Fiziev would no doubt be happy to accept. Gamrot, on the other hand, would lean into his grappling and spend the night pulling Saint-Denis into his world. 

With losses in two of his last three, Gamrot could defend his ranking against Alexander Hernandez, who’s won four straight and ought to face a stiffer challenge. And the same could be said about Grant Dawson if he comes out on top against Manuel Torres when they fight next month at UFC 323.