Helen Millman: Net Zero is an insurance policy, not a left-wing ideology | Conservative Home

Dr Helen Millman is a climate scientist and glaciologist based at the University of Exeter. She writes in a personal capacity.

Political debate has lost sight of the fundamental truth about Net Zero. It is not a left-wing eco zealot crusade or a utopian dream; it is a prudent insurance policy for Britain’s economy and national stability.

We are already paying the price of climate change today, visible in higher food prices, supply chain instability, and rising insurance premiums. Even the nation’s chocolate is being downgraded to “chocolate flavour,” as cocoa yields decline in a warming world. These are the early instalments on a very large bill, and unless we stick to Net Zero by 2050, the payments will grow exponentially.

The IPCC’s projections tend to focus on the year 2100, which sounds comfortably distant. But it’s not. At the next General Election, there will be first-time voters who will still be alive in 2100. For them, that date is not an abstraction. It is their lifetime. Whether it becomes a lifetime of innovation and prosperity or one of instability and hardship depends entirely on what we do now. Voters will not vote for a party that clings to the past at the expense of their future.

The cost of delay isn’t just financial; we are already losing the natural systems that sustain us. The world’s tropical coral reefs will not survive beyond mid-century unless we keep warming below 1.5°C, a threshold which we will likely exceed in the 2030s without drastic action. These reefs support a quarter of all marine life, sustain fisheries that hundreds of millions of people rely on, and provide natural coastal protection. They also harbour compounds used in the development of cancer treatments. We will have lost potential cures before they are even found.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which holds around 4 metres of potential sea level rise, may have already passed a point of no return. There is a one in five chance that sea level will be 2 m higher by 2100 under our current emissions pathway. That is a 20 per cent chance that some Commonwealth nations will literally vanish beneath the waves within the lifetime of 2029’s voters. Yet decisive action can slow the collapse and protect other parts of Antarctica, which as a whole holds roughly 60 metres of potential sea level rise, from tipping.

Meanwhile, the ocean currents that regulate our climate are showing signs of faltering. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), acts like a planetary heat pump, carrying warm water northwards and maintaining northern Europe’s relatively mild climate. Recent studies indicate that this system is weakening and could undergo a major transition this century if emissions continue on their present trajectory. The consequences of AMOC collapse would be catastrophic: the end of arable farming in the UK, harsher winters across Europe, and disrupted weather patterns across the globe.

I can already hear the chorus of social media sages who will declare this “alarmist.” But the facts are alarming, and pretending otherwise is not realism; it is denial. Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Every year of delay compounds the risk. Climate change is not just a problem for the future; it is a process already underway, and we are accelerating towards thresholds we will not be able to reverse.

Let’s put the financial risk in context. During the global financial crisis in 2009, global GDP declined by 1.3 per cent. The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries warns that climate change could wipe out up to 50 per cent of global GDP by the end of the century. That’s an extinction-level event for the global economy. Yet critics claim Net Zero is “too expensive.” In reality, the upfront investment required to meet Net Zero will lead to net savings before 2050.

Claire Coutinho is right that granting more North Sea oil and gas licences, would not bring down energy prices. The supposed justification is an extra £12 billion in tax revenue. However, in the winter of 2022/23, the Treasury spent £40 billion subsidising energy bills to protect consumers from soaring gas prices. Meanwhile, the decommissioning of existing oil and gas infrastructure carries a liability to the Exchequer of £10.8 billion. Clearly, continued reliance on volatile, internationally priced fossil fuels is not pragmatic; it is financial masochism.

By contrast, climate action delivers true energy security: stable prices, homegrown electricity, and insulation from geopolitical shocks. Claims that gas is cheaper than wind are misleading; based on cherry-picked data and incomparable metrics. Renewables remain cheaper and safer by every credible measure.

It is false to claim that Net Zero is failing, that Britain is merely exporting emissions, or that we lack influence on the world stage. Even accounting for offshored emissions, our overall emissions continue to fall. Over 100 countries have followed our lead and adopted Net Zero targets, some with more ambition and urgency than our own. If every “small contributor” shrugged and said, “It’s not us,” more than half of global emissions would go unchecked.

Nor is Net Zero an economic straitjacket. Our green economy is growing three times faster than the economy as a whole and attracted £23 billion in investment in 2024 alone. If we tear up our commitments, that investment would go elsewhere, and it’s not just green investment that would suffer. Costs and red tape would increase for every UK business trading with our largest market.

As public concern about climate change grows, the Green Party double down on hard-left economics, Reform embrace conspiracy theories, and Labour lack the courage of their own convictions. This leaves a clear space open for decisive centre-right climate action. This must be rooted in ambition, responsibility and innovation, rather than defeatism and Trumpian fever dreams of North Sea oil bonanzas.

The 2050 target was not plucked from the air. It is grounded in science and is achievable with existing technology, provided we set stable, long-term policies.

Net Zero has been monstered by parts of the press but UK voters see through this. They know that Net Zero is the sensible, economically literate thing to do. The alternative is higher costs, deeper instability, and a world slipping ever more out of control.

The effects of today’s emissions will be felt for millennia. With this in mind, it is clear that we need to think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. Net Zero is not an ideology. It is insurance for our economy, our environment, and our future. Delay only raises the premium to a price we cannot afford to pay.